A mid-level disturbance moving north across the area taped into the abundant, lingering moisture to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over already saturated soils resulted in flooding across portions of Broward and Palm Beach.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A mid-level disturbance moving north across the area taped into the abundant, lingering moisture to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over already saturated soils resulted in flooding across portions of Broward and Palm Beach.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 22, 6:52 AM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020
.Aviation...
Intermittent Atlantic showers will continue through a good part of
the forecast period. Convection may overspread the southern
peninsula through the day. Sub-VFR conditions are possible around
convection along with gusty winds. Wind should generally remain
out of the east. Short-fused amendments will likely be necessary
through the period for bouts of IFR/LIFR.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 322 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020/
Short Term...
Thursday and Friday...
While tonight has been relatively quieter than last night gusty
showers continue to move over the Atlantic waters and over the east
coast of South Florida. This continues to add to the rainfall totals
from the past few days. Additional rainfall will continue to pond on
roadways, parking lots and grassy areas.
High pressure will begin to loosen its grips slightly as it slides
offshore the SE CONUS, therefore the pressure gradient will
lessen some allowing the winds gradually come down some as well.
While today does not look as wet as the past 2 days. The GFS does show
a mid level disturbance moving to the north and PWAT values still
near 2 inches with plenty of moisture. A few more breaks and not
as continuous rain coverage today but another day of scattered to
numerous showers and a slight increase in instability may allow
for a more few embedded thunderstorms. Main concern will continue
to be additional rainfall on already saturated ground leading to
flooding concerns. While QPF totals are not as high as past days
with antecedent conditions and additional rainfall the Flood Watch
will continue through this evening. The day shift will be re-
evaluating throughout the day to the latest trends of hi-res
guidance and convective coverage
As we move into Friday, High pressure will try to push some drier
air towards South Florida, but deep moisture will remain to the
south across Cuba and the Florida straits. South Florida will be
right along that gradient before that moisture begins to move north
for the weekend. PWATs drop below 2 inches but enough moisture
across the region for scattered showers and storms once again for
Friday. Southern portions of the peninsula, a little closer to the
deep moisture, will have highest chances of rainfall. With grounds
still saturated main impact will be heavy rainfall with flooding
concerns.
High temperatures to remain in the mid-upper 80s, along with lows
in the 70s.
Long Term...
Friday night through Sunday
An elongated low-level surface trough originating from the Carribean
waters is forecast to progressively move northerly near the southern
Atlantic waters. Broad upper level divergence encompasses this
feature, as well as deep moisture characterized by PWI (precipitable
water indices) in the 2.2-2.4 in. range. Low-level moisture is
fluxed at impressive rates with several prog solutions hinting at an
850 hPa low-level jet forming from a tightening geopotential height
gradient. All the aforementioned factors could result in a wet
weekend for South Florida.
The main impacts of concern through the upcoming weekend are
localized flooding and strong wind gusts. Confidence is presently
low in terms of QPF totals and specific locations that may be
affected. With that being said, the orientation and forecast
progression of this low-level wave appears to have a greater impact
on southeastern portions of the region, including coastal/metro
Miami-Dade County.
A slightly northwest shift in the wave axis could result in greater
theta-e advection over South Florida, which would be commensurate
with higher rainfall totals. This scenario could pose a larger areal
threat as well, especially with significant rainfall totals that
have accumulated recently. It is also possible that the low-level
wave stays further south (near Bahamas/Cuba), which may result in a
drier period for South Florida. Given the lower confidence and
erratic nature of tropical convection, be sure to monitor and pursue
the latest updates to the official forecast.
Monday through Thursday
A deep, 500 hPa shortwave trough progresses easterly over the
western Atlantic waters. A ridge of high pressure quickly builds
back in, with South Florida generally beneath the eastern periphery
of this feature. This will favor differential anticyclonic vorticity
advection over a greater portion of South Florida, resulting in
modest synoptic scale subsidence. Additionally, a surge of dry air
originating from mid-latitudes is forecast to advect over the
region, quelling widespread storm activity. Any showers that do form
will should be quick-moving and short-lived, as the atmosphere is
generally bereft of moisture, instability, and shear.
Maximum temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s this weekend,
a bit cooler owing to convective debris in the form of widespread
cloud cover. A slight warming trend may be realized through the
period with the upper ridge building over the region.
Marine...
Hazardous marine conditions will remain in place across the Atlantic
and Gulf coastal waters as winds remain breezy and gusty. Moisture
remains in place which will allow for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to continue over the local waters through the end
of the week. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around
any shower or thunderstorm.
Beach Forecast...
Breezy easterly flow remains in place, with a high risk of rip
currents continuing for the Atlantic coast beaches through the end
of the week. An elevated risk of rip currents may continue this
the weekend. In addition, there will continue to be the
possibility of coastal flooding at the times of high tide across
the coastal areas along the east coast later through at least this
evening.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach 84 76 85 75 / 50 30 40 30
Fort Lauderdale 86 78 86 76 / 50 30 50 40
Miami 86 77 86 76 / 50 40 50 40
Naples 88 74 87 73 / 60 30 60 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ068-072>074-168-172>174.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-
172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ676.
&&
Aviation...02/RAGHazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 221945- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...Coastal Flooding and High Rip Current Risk... ...Gusty Showers with Heavy Rainfall and Flood Watch for East Coast... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Rip Currents: There is a high risk of Rip Currents along the Atlantic beaches. Coastal Flooding: Higher than normal tides could lead to minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide. Flooding: Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding, especially along east coast metro and coastal areas. A Flood Watch remains in effect. Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms are possible. The primary hazards are lightning, gusty winds, and urban flooding. Wind: Gusty winds in excess of 20-25 knots across South Florida waters. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are also possible within any convection over water and land. Waterspouts: There is a slight chance of waterspouts over South Florida waters, mainly associated with thunderstorms and gusty showers. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY Scattered showers and thunderstorms with main hazards being the potential for localized flooding and gusty wind over the coastal waters. An elevated risk of rip currents will remain for Atlantic beaches through at least the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated. However, individual spotters especially east coast metro areas are encouraged to report high wind, waterspouts, and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport reported a temporary closure due to flooding on the entrance from perimeter road to the arrivals/departures near the cell phone lot this morning. Over 6 inches of rain fell in this area during a 3 day period.
WPTV photojournalist reported several inches of water on US1 near Crestwood Blvd in Lake Worth.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, October 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 921642, 921644.