Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developed in association with a tropical wave extending from the western Caribbean into the Florida Straits. This tropical wave in concert with a departing shortwave, sparked convection across South Florida.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developed in association with a tropical wave extending from the western Caribbean into the Florida Straits. This tropical wave in concert with a departing shortwave, sparked convection across South Florida. Furthermore, brisk easterly flow aided a one storm in becoming strong enough to produce a strong wind gust in Palm Beach.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 19, 6:37 AM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
737 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020
...12z Aviation Update...
.Aviation...
Atlantic terminals will start with showers and perhaps a T'storm
this cycle. Used TEMPOs for brief reductions in VIS/CIGs. Current
radar trends show PBI getting the worst of the reductions this
mooning. Otherwise, VFR conditions with intermittent showers
through the remainder of the day. Breeze easterly flow with gusts
up to 25 knots or so may be possible, especially in convection.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 312 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020/
..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT EAST COASTAL AREAS...
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY...
Short Term (Monday-Tuesday)...
Drier and a more stable airmass filtered into the area a little
earlier and faster than expected yesterday, with forecasted POPs
over land being too high despite the presence of a shortwave trough
moving across the area. Today, there is still lingering moisture
across SoFlo behind the departing shortwave trough, with 00z
sounding showing PWATS of 2 inches. And with the well established
ENE flow, at least some scattered showers should form and/or advect
from the coastal waters to justify carrying POPs in the 40-50
percent range.
Meanwhile, strong mid-level ridge is shown by the models, which will
remain well established across the eastern CONUS and the west
Atlantic waters during the short term. This high will ensure
continuing robust easterly winds on Tuesday with similar outlook for
POPs in the afternoon as Today. The onshore flow and high tides will
continue to combine to keep potential for coastal flooding along the
SoFlo east coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through
Tuesday.
Expect temperatures to remain generally warm with highs in
the mid-upper 80s each day, along with lows mostly in the 70s.
Long Term...
Wednesday and Thursday...
Strong mid-level ridging with high pressure dominating across the
region. Breezy easterly flow will remain with South Florida being
between the pressure gradient of a high to the north and a broader
area of lower pressure in the NW Caribbean Sea. A mid-upper level
low over the Florida straits will help advect moisture across South
Florida. Models have come into a little better agreement with there
being increased moisture across the area. Therefore, scattered to
numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms possible along
the easterly breeze. Convection will be diurnally enhanced as well
with greater coverage in the afternoon and evening. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows mostly in
the 70s.
Friday Through Next Weekend....
A upper level trough will be moving over the CONUS with a mid-level
shortwave over the Southeastern states late in the week with a
surface frontal boundary stalling out in Northern Florida. As we
enter the weekend this where we begin to see some discrepancy
amongst the global models with moisture content and features
between the ECMWF and GFS. How much moisture remains across the
area or if some drier mid-level air does work its way into the
region. This will have an impact on the forecast for POPs and
which features do develop and whether winds will be easterly or
more southerly. All in all higher than normal uncertainty for the
forecast next weekend. Therefore, have gone with the model blended
consensus until things begin to pan out this coming week.
Marine...
Pressure gradients remain tight today with breezy periods and
elevated seas across all the coastal waters. Increasing wind speeds
are also expected over the Lake and the offshore Gulf waters, for
which a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Scattered showers
and storms will also be possible, especially during the afternoon
hours. The strongest storms will be capable of producing strong
winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud-to-water lightning.
Aviation...
Breezy periods continue through the next 24 hours with ENE winds in
the 10-15kt range with gusts to around 25kt as pressure gradients
remain tight around the area. Kept tempos for passing layers
dropping cigs around 3K ft for some ATL terminals during the next
couple of hours. Showers and a few storms are possible this
afternoon, but any MVFR/IFR periods should be brief as cells should
be moving along with the synoptic flow.
Beach Forecast...
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for the Atlantic
beaches as high tide and strong onshore flow continue today. Expect
periods of gusty easterly winds and elevated seas. Conditions may
continue on Tuesday. In addition, thunderstorms may be possible
again today, leading to cloud-to-ground lightning.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach 85 76 85 75 / 50 50 50 40
Fort Lauderdale 86 77 85 77 / 50 50 50 50
Miami 85 77 84 77 / 50 50 50 50
Naples 88 75 85 74 / 40 40 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
173.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ168-172-173.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-
172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610-630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.
&&
Aviation...28/FryeHazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 413 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 192015- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 413 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... ...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TONIGHT... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Coastal Flooding: Higher than normal tides (highest predicted tides of the year) could lead to minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide. Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Coast beaches. Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly in the afternoon hours. Primary impacts from the thunderstorms will be lightning strikes and brief gusty winds. Wind: Winds up to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are possible across the Atlantic coastal waters today. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are also possible with any thunderstorms that do develop today. Marine: Breezy to winds conditions and building seas will create hazardous boating conditions across the all of South Florida waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY Hazardous marine conditions will be possible through mid week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon period, mainly with sea breeze boundaries. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
The Miami radar (KAMX), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:31 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm wind gust of 59 mph (51 knots) was recorded at the Earthnetwork site WLLCH located at Wellington High School.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, October 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 919918.