Tropical Storm and High Surf in Florida, November 11, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1105 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Eta is moving north northeast as of the 10 pm EST
advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The mid level
circulation associated with Eta can be clearly seen on the BYX
radar, swirling just outside our CWA. That being said, rain bands
associated with Eta are moving west to east across the far western
waters and approaching the Lower Keys. The bands have been losing
much of its convective properties and becoming more stratiform as
it moves away from the center. Due to the gradient between Eta and
a sprawling high pressure over the western Atlantic, strong winds
extend well outside of the immediate radius of Eta. Expect windy
conditions for portions of the Keys for the overnight and into
Wednesday before Eta lifts far enough north for the gradient to
relax.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong breezes will persist for all waters with the
exception of the far western waters. As such a mix of Gale
Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. For the far
western Straits and southeast Gulf waters, Tropical Storm Warnings
continues. As Eta lifts northward over the next 24 to 36 hours,
the gradient between Eta and the strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic will relax. This will lead to a gradual
slackening of breezes starting Wednesday with a more noticeable
drop off in winds by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the Key West and Marathon terminals.
Tropical Storm Eta is located about 200 miles southwest of Key West
and it is moving slowly northward. Outer rainbands are affecting the
waters west of the Lower Keys and isolated to scattered showers may
affect the terminals tonight through tomorrow, especially Key West.
These showers will cause IFR vis and MVFR cigs, and wind gusts near
40 knots. The timing is uncertain, making amendments and TEMPOs
necessary. The winds outside the showers will be SE-S at 15 to 25
knots with occasional gusts near 30 to 35 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076.

GM...Gale Warning GMZ035-044-054-074.

 Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031-032- 042-043-052-053-072-073.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ033-034-055-075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW/WLC
Aviation/Nowcasts....SDR
Data Acquisition.....Williams

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
347 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-111100-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
347 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Tropical Storm Eta will meander today about 200 miles southwest of
the Dry Tortugas, leading to strong southeast breezes across the
waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Moderate saltwater flooding will continue over the Upper Keys,
while minor saltwater flooding will continue during this morning's
high tide over the Middle and Lower Keys. A Coastal Flood
Advisory is in effect for the Upper Keys.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Winds in excess of 20 knots and seas of 7 feet or more will
continue through Wednesday night, most notably over the southeast
Gulf waters, including the Dry Tortugas. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.