Deep tropical moisture streaming northward into the Mid Atlantic region combined with the approach of a cold front and low pressure, produced heavy rain across much of central and eastern Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Deep tropical moisture streaming northward into the Mid Atlantic region combined with the approach of a cold front and low pressure, produced heavy rain across much of central and eastern Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 11, 4:05 AM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases from the south today...out ahead of a cold
front that is expected to cross the area Thursday. The front
then stalls along the southeast coast Friday. Another cold front
crosses the area late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EST Wednesday...
Early morning WV imagery showing a plume of deep Atlantic and
tropical moisture being advected north from the southeast CONUS
out ahead of TC Eta in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the deep
mid to upper trough over the midwest and Great Lakes region.
Early morning radar mosaic showing the far eastern edge of light
to moderate showers just entering our far western tier of
counties early this morning, with widespread showers back into
the central and southern Appalachians down into N GA.
Forecast is largely on track with the only change really to
increase rain chances to ~100% over the west, with rain chances
slowly increasing across the Hampton Roads area into NE NC this
aftn. Strong isentropic lift will bring initial slug of
overrunning moisture through the area this morning, as the
surface front to the west of the area slows down. All this as
favorable jet dynamics ratchet up precipitable water values to
around 2.0 inches (+2-3 Std Dev). Widespread showers and
perhaps even a thunderstorm will move across mainly the
interior sections of Virginia and into the Maryland eastern
shore along this area of lift through the aftn. Could see
locally an inch or so of rain west of I-95, with much less to
the east over E VA until after sunset.
As first round of showers pushes offshore this evening, a second
round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected
overnight as another shortwave trough pushes across the area.
Rainfall through sunrise Thu morning looks to average 2-3" over
the northwestern half of the area, with slightly less over far
southern areas.
A Flash Flood Watch was considered for this package, but given
antecedent dry conditions, think that the area can handle this
initial slug of rainfall today with minimal issues. That along
w/ the break in rounds of rainfall should mitigate risk to some
degree. Still the slowing front and anomalously high PW's do
bear monitoring and we will re-evaluate later this morning. We
will obviously message heavy rain potential in the HWO and
through our social media platforms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Wednesday...
Moderate rain will continue into Thu, as the front will be
slowing down greatly as it becomes parallel to the mean flow
aloft. It will take much of Thursday to even clear the forecast
area. As such, am expecting the heaviest rainfall to transition
to the eastern half of the area during this time period.
Still wary of rain rates as the front slows down, and that
this rainfall combined with the rainfall from today into this
evening could lead to some minor river flooding and some small
stream and urban flooding. Overall, the NWP suggests that the
area will see ~2-3 inches of rain, with the CAMS guidance
suggesting a narrow swath of up to 4 inches of rain before
Friday. Placement of this heaviest rain will all depend where
any convective elements set up. Will also continue mention
thunder Thu for much of the area especially south of RIC. Some
weak MUCAPE of up to 500 j/kg and moderate 500mb winds due to
the approaching trough. Latest ECMWF lightning guidance suggest
some isolated storms possible throughout the Wed-Thu time
period. Temperatures actually fall a bit in the late morning and
aftn over the north, with temps falling into the 50s, while
temps linger in the upper 60s to low 70s across the SE in the
warm sector.
The front never really moves much further south Thu night or Friday
in response to the strong Atlantic ridge. As such, will maintain
high chance or likely pops across the far SE for Thu night into
Friday morning. Finally, the sfc high starts to build into the area
for Friday per the GFS and ECMWF solutions, and the area will dry
out.
Despite the rain and clouds, temperatures will stay mild with
readings expected in the 70s Wed and Thu and lows quite mild in the
60s. In fact, some places may see record high minimum temperatures
Wed night. A little cooler and less humid on Friday, but
temperatures still at near normal in the mid-upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 405 AM EST Wednesday...
00z/11 GFS and ECMWF in good agreement in pushing TC Eta farther
east into C Florida over the weekend. This will result in a
drier outlook for the upcoming weekend, and will keep PoPs at no
higher than 30%. Decreasing clouds Friday, with dry/cool wx for
Saturday. The strong upper trough over the northern plains will
push a mainly dry cold front across the area Sun night. Any
showers quickly exit Sunday night, with a dry forecast for next
Mon and Tuesday. Highs for the weekend in the 60s, then cooling
off into the 50s by Tuesday at the ECMWF suggests -4C 850mb
temps across the region under the trough. Cold nights/early
mornings for a change next week, with lows into the 30s to low
40s early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM EST Wednesday...
High pressure is centered off the coast early this morning,
with a light SE wind prevailing across the region. VFR
conditions across area terminals to begin the 06z TAF period.
An area of BKN- OVC clouds ~4-6 kft AGL are lifting nwd across
The mid-Atlantic region. Trend of lowering clouds will continue
over the next 3-6 hours, with occasional MVFR cigs expected
after 08z, with IFR possible at RIC. Rain arrives from W-E after
sunrise this morning, becoming more widespread into the aftn as
a frontal boundary approaches from the W and moisture streams
nwd ahead of the boundary. Vsby restrictions to IFR/MVFR are
expected in heavier rain, with cigs falling to MVFR later
Wednesday aftn. There is also a slight chc of tstms Wednesday
aftn. A S wind of 8-12kt is expected Wednesday.
Outlook: A prolonged period of degraded flight conditions is
likely from Wednesday night into Friday morning as the frontal
boundary responsible for the rain/clouds will be slow to move
through the region. Improving flying conditions for the second
half of Friday into Saturday. There is another chc of degraded
flight conditions Saturday night into Sunday as another frontal
boundary settles into the region.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday...
Early this morning high pressure is well off the coast, with a cold
front approaching from the west. Winds are S/SE 5-10 kts. Waves in
the bay around a foot. Seas 3-4 ft.
Southerly flow increases today ahead of the front to 10-15 kts over
the bay and rivers, and 15-20 kts over the coastal waters. Seas
build from south to north today, with SCA for the southern coastal
waters going into effect at 15Z, and 18Z for the middle and northern
coastal waters. By late tonight expect 4-5 ft seas over the southern
coastal waters and 4-6 ft over the northern coastal waters. Waves in
the bay build to 1-3 ft.
The cold front slowly crosses the area waters from late Thursday
morning across the northern waters to Thursday evening over the SE.
Winds become N/NE behind the front. Seas are likely to remain
elevated into late Thursday night over the southern coastal waters
and early Friday morning for the northern coastal waters.
High pressure building in over the Great Lakes late Friday into
Saturday will result in modest CAA. This will likely result in a
brief period of SCA winds/seas.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Will need to watch the mainstem rivers through the end of the
week with a widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain expected. In fact,
Lawrenceville is forecast to go into minor flood stage by
Thursday and other rivers are expected to rise through the end
of the week.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST
Thursday for ANZ656-658.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...CMF
HYDROLOGY...Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Wakefield VA 437 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525- 120945- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight- Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-York- Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 437 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight...as tropical moisture interacts with a slow moving cold front. Some heavy downpours are possible this evening and overnight...which could produce localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue over the outlook area Thursday into Thursday evening. Some minor flooding of main stem rivers will also be possible by late this week into this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>083-087-088-509>522-120945- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg- Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond- Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Greensville-Sussex-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 437 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible over the outlook area from this afternoon through Thursday morning...as tropical moisture interacts with a slow moving cold front. Some heavy downpours are possible...which could produce localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall today and early Thursday could lead to some minor flooding of main stem rivers by late this week into this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 05
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
52 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.86 inches was reported at (0.6 SE) Onley. Rainfall total of 2.96 inches was reported at Wallops Island (WAL) and Parksley.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.06 inches was reported at (3.6 W) Jetersville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between three inches and seven inches across the county. Rainfall total of 7.63 inches was reported at (1.7 ENE) Ruther Glen.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and seven inches across the county. Rainfall total of 7.60 inches was reported at Deep Creek. Rainfall total of 6.87 inches was reported at Chesapeake. Rainfall total of 4.35 inches was reported at Fentress Naval.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.68 inches was reported at (3.9 SW) Beach. Rainfall total of 2.66 inches was reported at Chesterfield. Rainfall total of 2.06 inches was reported at Matoaca.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between three inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.64 inches was reported at Farmville (FVX).
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.17 inches was reported at Church Road.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 4.83 inches was reported at Emporia Reservoir.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.79 inches was reported at Tappahannock. Rainfall total of 2.76 inches was reported at Dunnsville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 4.34 inches was reported at Palmyra. Rainfall total of 2.89 inches was reported at Scottsville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 4.99 inches was reported at (0.5 ESE) Franklin.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.37 inches was reported at (2.4 E) Gloucester Point. Rainfall total of 3.05 inches was reported at (1.7 SSE) Zanoni. Rainfall total of 2.77 inches was reported at Hayes.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 5.04 inches was reported at Crozier. Rainfall total of 4.24 inches was reported at Maidens.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between three inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.21 inches was reported at Purdy.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and seven inches across the county. Rainfall total of 7.20 inches was reported at (1.9 NW) Hampton. Rainfall total of 4.34 inches was reported at LFI.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and six inches across the county. Rainfall total of 6.65 inches was reported at (4.3 ESE) Beaver Dam. Rainfall total of 5.95 inches was reported at Montpelier. Rainfall total of 3.12 inches was reported at Ashland.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.64 inches was reported at Glen Allen. Rainfall total of 2.75 inches was reported at (4.7 SSE) Montrose.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and two inches across the county. Rainfall total of 1.59 inches was reported at (1 NE) Hopewell.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between three inches and six inches across the county. Rainfall total of 6.08 inches was reported at (3.6 SSE) Smithfield. Rainfall total of 4.55 inches was reported at Carrollton.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.48 inches was reported at (1.9 SW) Williamsburg. Rainfall total of 2.27 inches was reported at (3.2 WNW) Williamsburg. Rainfall total of 2.08 inches was reported at Fords Colony.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 1.59 inches was reported at (2.6 NNW) Mattaponi.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 1.97 inches was reported at (6.2 NNE) Urbanna. Rainfall total of 1.86 inches was reported at Mollusk. Rainfall total of 1.75 inches was reported at Kilmarnock.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between three inches and six inches across the county. Rainfall total of 5.98 inches was reported at (1 N) Louisa. Rainfall total of 4.19 inches was reported at Bumpass. Rainfall total of 3.07 inches was reported at Mineral.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.37 inches was reported at (0.9 N) Victoria.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.38 inches was reported at (1 SE) Port Haywood. Rainfall total of 3.13 inches was reported at (2.2 WSW) Mathews.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.53 inches was reported at John H Kerr Dam. Rainfall total of 2.41 inches was reported at (1 E) Boydton. Rainfall total of 2.33 inches was reported at Clarksville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.77 inches was reported at (8 SSW) White Stone. Rainfall total of 2.34 inches was reported at (1 S) Deltaville. Rainfall total of 2.06 inches was reported at Hartfield.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between three inches and seven inches across the county. Rainfall total of 6.64 inches was reported at (3.3 E) Newport News. Rainfall total of 6.18 inches was reported at (2.5 ESE) Newport News. Rainfall total of 3.85 inches was reported at (1 NW) Menchville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and seven inches across the county. Rainfall total of 6.86 inches was reported at Norfolk. Rainfall total of 6.07 inches was reported at (1.6 SE) Norview. Rainfall total of 4.79 inches was reported at ORF.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.54 inches was reported at (2.6 WSW) Franktown. Rainfall total of 2.81 inches was reported at Oyster.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.46 inches was reported at (2.3 NNE) Lottsburg. Rainfall total of 2.19 inches was reported at (4.6 SE) Heathsville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.01 inches was reported at Crewe. Rainfall total of 2.40 inches was reported at (1.9 SSE) Burkeville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and seven inches across the county. Rainfall total of 6.93 inches was reported at (4.1 SSE) Portsmouth. Rainfall total of 6.85 inches was reported at (1 NW) Cradock.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 4.15 inches was reported at (1 NW) Fine Creek Mills. Rainfall total of 3.36 inches was reported at (3.2 SW) Powhatan.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.11 inches was reported at Pamplin. Rainfall total of 2.99 inches was reported at (1 SSW) Farmville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.35 inches was reported at (3.2 ENE) Prince George. Rainfall total of 1.85 inches was reported at (6.3 NE) Disputanta.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and three inches across the county.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between three inches and five inches across the county. Rainfall total of 4.90 inches was reported at (3.7 N) Sedley. Rainfall total of 4.40 inches was reported at (2 WSW) Courtland.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and eight inches across the county. Rainfall total of 7.54 inches was reported at (4 WNW) Portsmouth. Rainfall total of 6.89 inches was reported at Suffolk. Rainfall total of 4.55 inches was reported at (1 NNE) Huntersville.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.38 inches was reported at Claremont.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and four inches across the county. Rainfall total of 3.95 inches was reported at (1.5 NW) Wakefield. Rainfall total of 3.77 inches was reported at AKQ.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between four inches and eight inches across the county. Rainfall total of 7.84 inches was reported at Virginia Beach. Rainfall total of 6.02 inches was reported at Creeds. Rainfall total of 5.50 inches was reported at Back Bay.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and six inches across the county. Rainfall total of 6.22 inches was reported at (0.5 NE) Stratford.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between one inch and three inches across the county. Rainfall total of 2.48 inches was reported at (1.4 ENE) Williamsburg.
Rainfall totals generally ranged between two inches and six inches across the county. Rainfall total of 6.25 inches was reported at (5.5 ENE) Newport News. Rainfall total of 5.27 inches was reported at (6.9 SE) Yorktown. Rainfall total of 5.85 inches was reported at (5.8 W) Poquoson. Rainfall total of 4.63 inches was reported at (2 SE) Tabb.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, November 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 929661, 929662, 929663, 929664, 929665, 929666, 929667, 929668, 929669, 929670, 929674, 929677, 929682, 929685, 929691, 929697, 929699, 929705, 929708, 929716, 929719, 929722, 929724, 929726, 929727, 929917, 929918, 929919, 929920, 929923, 929925, 929926, 930670, 930671, 930674, 930675, 930678, 930679, 930681, 930682, and more.