Flood in Florida, May 25, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Heavy Rain Potential Continues Especially Along the East Coast
Tonight...

Current/Tonight...A mid level vort center has been lifting north
across east central FL with a large area of rain and embedded
heavier showers lifting northward along the east coast. Additional
rain bands are developing in the low level southeast flow across
southern portions of east central FL and should also lift
northward through sunset. The mid level shortwave trough will
move over the peninsula this evening and should induce surface
low pressure development somewhere near or just offshore the FL
east coast. Heavy rain bands may redevelop near the low and along
the coast into later this evening before the low starts to lift
northward away from the coast and low level flow veers to the
SSW/SW late toward morning. With some uncertainty in low pressure
development but a strong model signal with a continuing coastal
heavy rain threat will keep Flood Watch in effect. Expect the rain
chances to slowly diminish for the interior past midnight, but
may continue for the coast depending on evolution of low pressure
development. Will continue high rain chances to 80-90 percent near
the east coast 70 percent Lake county with rain chances on a
decreasing trend overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to around 70
interior to lower 70s along the Treasure Coast.

Tue-Wed (modified)...Avbl guid continues to suggest a well
defined sfc wave or perhaps low pressure early Tue wl be located
just north of the area. The feature will drift slowly away to the
north leaving a rather high PWAT environment. This in combination
with an upstream mid level trough will lead to the likelihood of
afternoon development of showers and storms across the area with
Westerly component steering winds favoring the east side of the
peninsula. PoPs range from 60-70 Pct from W-E. At midweek, a
favorable setup remains for another round of afternoon storms with
continuation of broad mid level troughing across the SE and Gulf
of Mex, and westerly component steering level winds. Storm
coverage forecast a little lower than Tue, however Sct to Nmrs
showers and embedded storms should occur during the diurnal window
from around 1 PM through 8 PM.

Late Week (previous)...A Sfc ridge should begin to establish
across the peninsula to the gulf with lighter winds and a focus
inland for development of afternoon storms. Expect sct slow moving
storms, with slightly higher coverage inland due to expected
boundary interactions during heat of the day. Coverage will remain
slightly higher than normal Thu-Fri (Mid-Upr sct range) due to
less convective inhibition overall. Temperature near seasonal
norms.

Extended (previous)...Sfc ridge across the Western Atlc basin to
the Gulf of Mex will elongate while remaining the main map feature
through the weekend. This regime will lead to mentionable chc of
diurnally timed scattered showers and lightning storms light
steering winds should favor inland areas for higher chances of
rainfall in general with temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous showers with periods of heavy rain will continue into this
evening across east central Florida. Have included VCTS due to the
threat for embedded thunderstorms. Continued lowered CIGs/VIS
expected, especially in heavier rain. Heaviest rain and greatest
chances will continue to be along the coast, mainly from KTIX
south.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Much of the short range model guidance indicates low
pressure developing across the waters and lifting gradually north
or northeast late tonight. A pinched pressure gradient across the
central/nrn waters will increase winds this evening to 20-25
knots north of Sebastian across the open Atlantic. Seas will
respond and build to up to 7-8 feet across the nrn waters. Will
continue Small Craft Advisory through much of tonight but drop
near shore Treasure Coast around 4 am. Widespread showers and
isolated storms will continue overnight.

Tue morning...S/SSW winds to 15-20 knots and higher seas across
the offshore waters north of Sebastian will require an advisory at
least through mid morning north of Sebastian otherwise Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions are expected as seas slowly decrease
into the afternoon.

Tue afternoon-Wed (modified)...Unsettled conditions ascd with sfc
wave, or perhaps low pressure north of the waters early in the
period will produce choppy seas with seas around 4 ft near shore
and up to 6 ft Tue aftn diminishing to around 3-4 ft by Wed. Winds
and seas locally higher near numerous showers and embedded storms
through midweek.

Late Week...(previous) High pressure wl begin to establish from
the Wrn Atlc basin toward the Gulf of Mex during the period,
marine conditions should correspondingly improve, with seas
diminishing to 2-3 ft Thu. Seas thereafter wl average around 3-4
ft into the weekend. with and onshore wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  86  72  89 /  80  70  40  50
MCO  70  88  72  90 /  70  70  30  50
MLB  71  87  73  88 /  80  70  30  50
VRB  72  87  73  89 /  80  70  40  50
LEE  68  87  74  91 /  60  60  30  50
SFB  68  88  73  91 /  70  70  30  50
ORL  68  88  74  90 /  70  70  30  50
FPR  72  88  72  89 /  80  70  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Indian River-Martin-
     Northern Brevard-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-
     Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

Volkmer/Combs/Leahy/Watson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
508 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-260000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
508 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River,
Okeechobee, Brevard, Osceola, Orange and Seminole Counties through
Tuesday morning. Bands of heavy rainfall will move across east
central Florida today and tonight with localized flooding possible.

Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 8 to 10 inches possible along the Treasure Coast
and into Brevard and Osceola Counties. In Orange and Seminole
Counties, expect widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
amounts up to 6 inches possible.

Any persistent heavy rainfall could lead to flooding of roadways,
low-lying and poor drainage areas, and quick rises of water in
retention ponds, culverts, and canals.

Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown! It is not safe to drive a
vehicle across a flooded road. If you come across a flooded
roadway, find another route.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will move across
the region today with the primary threat being occasional cloud to
ground lightning strikes. A couple of tornadoes are possible as
well with some of the stronger storms. This threat will be highest
along the coast as storms move onshore.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a high risk of rip currents at all east central Florida
beaches today. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away
from shore into deeper water. Think twice about entering the surf
today. If you choose to do so, swim near a lifeguard.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing wind
gusts up to 35 knots will move over east central Florida and the
adjacent Atlantic waters through this evening.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Conditions are favorable for waterspouts to develop as showers and
thunderstorms move onshore through this evening. The threat will
be highest south of the Cape.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
East winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts this
evening, mostly along the barrier islands and Intracoastal
Waterways of Volusia and Brevard Counties.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Poor to hazardous boating conditions developing today. East to
southeast winds up 15 to 20 knots will increase to 20 to 25 knots
this afternoon, with the strongest winds north of Sebastian
Inlets. Seas build to 4 to 6 feet today, then build up to 6 to 8
feet by this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue each
afternoon this week, with heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and
deadly cloud to ground lightning storms as the main threats.

The risk of rip currents will be moderate to high on Tuesday, then
moderate for the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed. Report rainfall totals greater than 3 inches and any
flooding impacts to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

Rodriguez