Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed late this afternoon into this evening. While these were overall weaker than those that occurred over the previous day or two in this persistent summer-like pattern, the slow movement of the storms led to flash flooding issues in Rowan and Bell Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed late this afternoon into this evening. While these were overall weaker than those that occurred over the previous day or two in this persistent summer-like pattern, the slow movement of the storms led to flash flooding issues in Rowan and Bell Counties. Water rescues were performed in each county as water surrounded vehicles, while a tree toppled due to the flowing water near Morehead and landed on power lines, subsequently setting an apartment on fire. Additionally, a tree was downed near Gates in Rowan County as a thunderstorm briefly strengthened to severe limits.
Portions of Rowan County saw up to nearly 3 inches of rainfall, while western portions of Bell County saw amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 1:41 PM EST, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 241 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 241 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2020 Forecast is in decent shape. Updated grids for latest obs and freshened up the zones. Original thoughts concerning today's convection appear to be coming to pass. Overall growth of cells is a bit more subdued as compared to yesterday. Ridging aloft was expected to be stronger to the east and northeast portions of our forecast area this afternoon. This appears to be playing out correctly with better coverage of storms to the southwest. Just the same, there are some heavy rainers out there posing the greatest flooding threat to areas in the vicinity of low water crossings and/or areas that typically display poor drainage. UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020 Updated forecast grids for latest hourly trends as well as the zones and other products to remove morning fog. Today looks like a possibly replay of yesterday except that heights will be on the rise across the region as Atlantic high pressure builds a little stronger into the mid-Ohio Valley region. Thus with warming in the column storms may not be quite as strong and/or widespread today. However, DCAPES remain relatively high at around 750-1000 J/kg, and several storm indices still support the potential of some gusty winds with the strongest storms. Storm motions remain slow and PWATs are near the 99th percentile climatologically. Freezing levels (12-13 kft) are not ideal for warm water processes but still respectable for the potential of heavy rainfall. Therefore can not rule out some localized flooding issues, especially in the vicinity of low water crossings and/or areas that typically display poor drainage. Building high pressure will be strongest across our east, thus hoping that yesterday's hardest hit areas will not be as prone for activity today. Convective temps are right around 85. Thus expect convection to begin firing right around noon or just after. Will update the zone package one again as we approach the noon hour to remove morning wording. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020 Made a couple minor tweaks to the near term temp forecast based on the current observations. After the 10Z hour, temperatures should only be warming. Fog will also begin lifting and dissipating fairly quickly over the next hour or two. Otherwise the forecast seems to be in good shape. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 421 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020 A large upper level ridge of high pressure remains located over the mid-Atlantic states and will remain the focal feature across the Ohio Valley throughout the period. Our location on the west side of this system will promote SW to Srly flow into the region. This will couple with light Srly flow at surface as well, with a inverted surface high pressure system parked along and just east of the Appalachians. Temperatures will easily glide into the mid and upper 80s for your Memorial Day, and a muggy upper 80s at that. Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler as winds become a bit more SErly, but still in the low to mid 80s. As was said yesterday, this is a "dirty" ridge, in that it's presence will not translate to the typical dry conditions. Rather, the influx of both warm air and moisture into the region from the south will create unstable conditions, which will spawn showers and even thunderstorms once the convective temperature is met today and again Tuesday. The latest NAM12 soundings continue to show CAPE values well in the 2,500 to 3,500 J/kg range throughout the afternoon today and in the 2,000 J/kg range Tuesday, with decent lapse rates both days. Moisture will be confined to the low levels, with drying aloft. However, the missing ingredient for making this a concerning widespread severe day is the winds, or lack there of. Generally light and variable winds throughout the column will lend themselves more to slow moving pulse storms, which could grow fairly substantially and could put down some heavy rainfall, but will also collapse and fall just as fast as they go up. Can't rule out a few stronger storms with small hail, and maybe even a severe or two...but the lack of winds and a driving lifting mechanism (low pressure system or frontal boundary), has kept SPC from upgrading us from just the General Thunder category once again. Since the convective activity is diurnally driven, once the sun begins to set this evening, and we lose daytime heating and mixing, convection will quickly decline and dissipate. Much like the ongoing conditions, and those of last night, did keep fog mentioned in the forecast for overnight tonight, especially in the river valleys. The influx of humidity/moisture will lend itself to condensing as the temperatures cool overnight and a near-surface inversion sets up. Overnight lows tonight will be mild again, in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 507 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020 An upper level high centered over the Mid Atlantic states and New England at the start of the period will gradually weaken and get suppressed southward at the end of the week, as troughing progresses east southeast toward the northeast CONUS. At the surface, ridging will be situated just to our east into Thursday, with warm southerly flow over us. This will give way to a cold front arriving from the northwest Friday into Saturday, supported by the aforementioned upper trough. Despite the nearby upper high, diurnal heating of our warm and relatively humid air mass should result in deep convection at times through Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. However, weak flow and a lack of features should result in poor organization and limited coverage. The breakdown of the upper high and increasing flow aloft may result in greater precip coverage on Thursday. The greatest chance of rain, with likely POPs area wide, will be on Friday as the cold front arrives. It is still uncertain how quickly drying will arrive behind the cold front, and a lower POP continues to be carried into the weekend. The change in air mass should be effective enough to bring dry weather by late Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2020 Predominately VFR conditions are on tap for the period. Isold to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing once again during this afternoon. The strongest storms are producing some gusty winds to about 40 kts and very heavy rain. Storms will die off with loss of diurnal heating early this evening. Light to patchy dense fog will become a concern overnight. Convection will again fire Tuesday, just beyond the end of the forecast window. Winds will be light and variable, except in the strongest thunderstorms where winds will gust to around 40 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...RAY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 425 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 425 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening time frame. Areas of fog may be locally dense through the overnight hours, especially in the river valleys. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Areas of fog may be locally dense through early morning time frame, especially in the river valleys. Thunderstorms are possible at times from Tuesday through Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. JMW/HAL/RAY
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service JACKSON KY 146 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 KYZ079-083-251830- Wayne-Pulaski- 146 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES... At 146 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Frazer, or 10 miles southwest of Somerset, moving northeast at 5 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Somerset, Burnside, Sloans Valley, Bronston, Elihu, Quinton, Betsey, Frazer, Tateville, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Kidder, Mill Springs, General Burnside S.P., Trimble and Ferguson. LAT...LON 3685 8471 3693 8482 3712 8465 3697 8441 TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 235DEG 6KT 3694 8469 RAY
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
248 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020
KYZ083-084-251915-
McCreary-Wayne-
248 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCCREARY COUNTIES...
At 248 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Burfield, or 8
miles south of Monticello, moving northeast at 10 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Parmleysville, Oil Valley, Coopersville, Rockeybranch, Slickford,
Burfield, Griffin, Barrier, Kidds Crossing, Mount Pisgah and Cooper.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3661 8490 3662 8497 3681 8491 3676 8467
3660 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 211DEG 11KT 3672 8481
KASThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 76 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:29 UTC.
5 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A citizen reported water flowing over Kentucky Highways 92 and 2077 southwest of Fourmile. Kentucky State Police and the Bell County Rescue Squad had to rescue two people who became stuck in flood waters on Jim McGaffee Road.
Dispatch and Emergency Management reported a tree blown down, due to severe thunderstorm winds, on Big Perry Road near Gates.
Rowan County Dispatch reported numerous instances of flash flooding south of Morehead. This includes near the Lockegee Rock area where a tree was downed due to flowing water. This caused a vehicle to become trapped by water prior to all occupants being rescued. Additionally, a tree downed by flowing water fell onto power lines, subsequently leading to an apartment fire closer to Morehead.
Dispatch reported water flowing over Kentucky Highway 529, Fallen Timber Branch Road, and Sugar Branch Road south of Clearfield. This forced the closure of all three highways for a period of time.
Local media and dispatch relayed reports of flowing water on several roads in Farmers, with some of this nearing homes. Farther northeast near Bluestone, Hungry Hollow Road was reported to have been closed due to flowing flood waters.
Hungry Hollow Road was closed due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 882863, 882864, 882865, 882866, 882867, 883635.