Storm Surge in Florida, June 7, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR/IFR cigs continue across much of the area as
rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal continue to move
onshore throughout the period. Expect locally lower cigs/vis in
and around these rainbands, along with stronger wind gusts and
possibly a few tornadoes. Winds increase throughout the period,
especially along the coast where frequent gusts over tropical
storm force can be expected. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Tropical Storm Cristobal
is forecast to continue to lifting northward toward the north
central Gulf Coast today, making landfall near the southern or
southeastern LA coast late this afternoon or evening. Cristobal
continues northward into Arkansas by Monday evening. This will
maintain high rain chances through Monday as bands of rain move
over the area. Temperatures will remain below normal due to the
clouds and rain. Overall, there remains no significant changes to
impacts associated with Cristobal across our area through Monday.
Below is a summary of our key local messages:

- A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for extreme southeast
  MS, extreme southwest AL and the northwest FL coast, where
  tropical storm force winds are becoming increasingly likely.
  Maximum wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible in the Tropical
  Storm Warning area, but especially along coastal AL this
  afternoon through tonight.

- Dangerous surf heights with 9-12 foot breakers will continue
  through 7 pm CDT Monday, while a HIGH risk of deadly rip
  currents will continue along area beaches through Tuesday night.
  Coastal flooding of 1-3 feet above ground level can be expected
  along low lying areas along the coast, bays, and sounds during
  periods of high tide during the late morning/early afternoon
  hours today and Monday.

- Heavy rainfall will be likely and flooding is possible through
  Monday morning, especially across southeast MS, and extreme
  southwest AL, where 4-8 inches of rain with isolated totals
  around 10 inches possible. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches with
  locally higher totals are possible across northwest FL. A Flash
  Flood Watch remains in effect across southeast MS, southwestern
  AL, and the northwest FL panhandle.

There will be a threat for a few tornadoes mainly this afternoon
and tonight across southeast MS, portions of southwest AL, and the
northwest FL panhandle. 49/13

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Tuesday night/...Cristobal is
expected to be located over Arkansas Monday evening and continues
northward through Tuesday, becoming absorbed into an upper trof
advancing eastward across the Plains.  Relatively drier air will
have been drawn into all but the westernmost portion of the area Monday
evening in the wake of Cristobal, with precipitable water values
as low as 1.5 inches. While likely pops continue Monday evening
over southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama, this
relatively drier air will limit coverage to scattered at best over
the remainder of the area. The drier air will be a temporary event as
additional Gulf moisture flows into the area Tuesday morning,
increasing precipitable water values to near 2.0 inches over the
entire area. With daytime heating and a generally light southerly
flow, expect that this environment will support likely pops on
Tuesday over most of the area.  A cold front advances across the
Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi River valley by late
Tuesday night, but this also occurs as an upper ridge gradually
builds across the southeastern states in the wake of Cristobal.
Considering this, limited pops to at best slight chance Tuesday
night.  A high risk of rip currents remains in effect until
Wednesday morning, and a high surf warning and coastal flood
advisory are set to expire at 7 pm CDT Monday. Lows Monday night
and Tuesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s
near the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.
/29

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...A weak cold front
moves south across the forecast area Wednesday in response to a
negatively tilted trough swinging east over the Northern Plains to
Great Lakes. Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead and with the frontal passage, with an upper ridge
located over the Southeast and nearby helping to temper
thunderstorm development. An upper ridge builds north over the
Plains and Rockies the rest of the work week into Saturday,
bringing a dry northerly flow to the Southeast. A weak cold front
moves south over the Southeast Sunday into Sunday night, but with
a general lack of moisture return over the region, little to no
rain is expected ahead or with the front's passage. Temperatures
around seasonal norms expected through the extended. /16

MARINE...Southeasterly winds will increase today with building
seas as Tropical Storm Cristobal advances northward across the
Gulf towards the coast of Louisiana. A strong southeasterly to
southerly flow is expected tonight as Cristobal moves into
Louisiana. The strong onshore flow then gradually subsides through
Tuesday as Cristobal moves well inland and weakens. Please refer
to the National Hurricane Center for the latest advisory on
Cristobal. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ALZ051>053-
     261>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ261-263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ263>266.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ636.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
727 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 AM     WATER SPOUT      3 NE FORT MORGAN        30.26N 87.99W
06/07/2020                   GMZ631             AL   PUBLIC

            VIDEO OF A WATER SPOUT (BETWEEN DAUPHIN
            ISLAND BRIDGE AND FORT MORGAN) FROM SOCIAL
            MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CGAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
852 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     WATER SPOUT      2 SSW GULF SHORES       30.24N 87.70W
06/07/2020                   GMZ650             AL   PUBLIC

            VIDEO OF WATER SPOUT NEAR GULF SHORES, AL
            FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

CGAL