NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 13, 6:37 AM EST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 13, 6:37 AM EST, 3 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure will pass over the Great Lakes today. A cold
front will move across the area this evening. High pressure builds
into the region on Tuesday, while a low pressure system passes to
our south on Wednesday. A series of weak upper disturbances cross
the area late in the week, while a stronger low pressure system may
approach the area on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High impact storm today with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
A deep surface low moves north of the Great Lakes region this
morning, lifting a warm front across our local region either
late this morning or very early this afternoon. Aloft, a
shortwave moves through late in the day as an upper low pivots
in southern Canada north of the Great Lakes Region.
Widespread rain along with embedded thunderstorms are expected
this morning, mainly from the overrunning with the warm front.
By afternoon, the warm front lifts north of the area and the
precipitation coverage decreases becoming more showery along
with the continued threat of thunder in the afternoon out ahead
of the cold front. The main threat with any thunderstorms will
be strong gusty winds. Also, with a high shear environment, an
isolated tornado can not be ruled out.
A strong LLJ is expected to move over portions of the area late
this morning and early this afternoon with max wind speeds
reaching 80+ kt just above the surface across portions of Long
Island. At the surface, expect wind gusts between 55-65 mph
(50-60 kt) as the jet passes over the region. A few locally
higher gusts to 70 mph can not be ruled out, especially in any
heavy rainfall or thunderstorms. As a result, the High Wind
Warning remains in effect for the NYC metro, much of NE NJ, Long
Island, the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT. Even sustained
winds could reach 40 mph (35 kt) which would warrant a warning,
especially south shore locations as winds advect in off the
water with little frictional effects. A Wind advisory remains up
for the NW zones where winds will not be as strong. The
strongest winds occur mid morning through mid afternoon, and
last a little longer out east.
Expect max temperatures in the 60s for much of the region. A
few locations may see temperatures touch 70 across portions of
NE NJ or the lower hudson valley late in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Winds early this evening become the SW, then west as the cold
front pushes across the region. Behind the front, any showers
end in the evening, and temperatures fall into the 40s overnight
as skies clear. Westerly flow slowly diminishes as the night
progresses.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad longwave trough encompasses the east CONUS through much of
the period. The strong upper low over the Canadian Maritimes
continues to move northeast on Tuesday, while a series of shortwaves
will rotate through the flow for the remainder of the period. A weak
shortwave approaches the area on Wednesday evening and quickly moves
through by Thursday morning. A second wave pushes through on Friday
while a stronger system takes shape over the Ohio Valley by Friday
evening. This stronger system approaches the area by Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the departing cold front on Tuesday.
Low pressure develops along the departing cold front to our
southwest on Wednesday. This quick-moving offshore system remains
south of our area on Wednesday. Given the track, we are on the
northern periphery of this system, and so am not expecting much in
the way of precipitation at this time.
High pressure builds in from the south for Thursday, and a weaker
clipper system moves north of the area on Friday. Global guidance is
pointing to a developing surface low over the the Central Plains
that moves northeast and deepens by Saturday afternoon. High
pressure builds back in by Sunday.
Temperatures will be normal to slightly below normal during the
period, and NBM was used as the main guidance source for this
forecast cycle.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WIND EVENT TODAY***
Offshore high pressure intensifies while intensifying inland
low pressure moves up into the Great Lakes today. The pressure
difference between these two systems will generate very high
southerly winds and LLWS.
Surface winds will quickly increase this morning and into the
early afternoon, with sustained winds of 30-40 kt (possibly up
to 45 kt for KJFK) with gusts 50-55 kt for most sites after 13Z.
Gusts to 60 kt possible for KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KGON. Winds should
be at the lower end of that range for KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR, and
25-30G45kt at KSWF. Winds becoming SW 20-30G30-40kt at the NYC
metros towards evening push, dropping to 15-20G25-30kt by around
00Z. Winds shift to the W after 03Z tonight, with gusts ending
after 09Z.
LLWS will increase to 70-80 kt at 2000 ft after 12Z and
continue into the mid to late afternoon.
Conditions have become MVFR/IFR in rain. Moderate to locally
heavy rain is expected for the morning push, continuing into
afternoon. Possible thunder mid morning through late afternoon.
Conds improving to MVFR during eve push, and VFR after 00z.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http://weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings, visibility,
and wind speed.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings, visibility,
and wind speed.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
EWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings, visibility,
and wind speed.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings, visibility,
and wind speed.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings, visibility,
and wind speed.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings, visibility,
and wind speed.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR possible in showers.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. W winds G15-20kt afternoon.
.Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A complex frontal system approaches today, with a cold front moving
through the waters tonight. A strengthening low pressure system will
track over the Great Lakes region today. The pressure gradient
between this low and the high pressure offshore will allow southerly
winds to increase this morning. A Storm Warning is in effect on all
waters today as wind gusts of 50 to 55 kt are expected, with
occasional gusts to 60 kt or possibly higher in thunderstorms. Winds
quickly diminish from west to east tonight, coming down below SCA
criteria after midnight across all waters. Thereafter, winds will
remain below SCA criteria.
Waves build on the ocean waters will build to 12 to as high as 20 ft
across the far eastern ocean zone by mid to late afternoon. 4 to 8
ft are expected across much of the sound, with waves as high as 12
ft across the extreme eastern sound. For the harbor, waves of 4 to 8
ft are forecast. All other waters will see 2 to 4 ft waves, with
isolated 5 ft waves possible. Waves diminish tonight, with the ocean
waters hanging on to 5+ ft waves through Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts will generally range between one to two inches
today. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially across NE NJ
and into the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT where terrain may
enhance any rainfall in those areas. At this time, feel more
urban/poor drainage flooding is likely.
There are no hydrologic concerns for the area Tuesday through
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor to locally moderate coastal flood/shoreline impacts are
expected with this afternoons high tide for S CT, South shore of LI,
southern Queens, southern Brooklyn, and twin forks of LI with
combination of water levels touching or slightly exceeding minor
flood thresholds, and high surf of 13-17 ft on the Atlantic ocean
beachfront and 4-6 ft on Coastal CT shoreline. Elsewhere generally
localized minor coastal flood impacts.
Forecast is heavily based towards 95 percentile of NYHOPS/SNAP-
EX model spread and ESTOFS guidance, due to anomalously strong
wind forcing.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ008-012.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
009>011.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this
evening for NYZ075-079>081-178-179.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067-068.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
078-080-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-338-345-
355.
Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-340-350-
353.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 13, 2:39 AM EST, 7 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
CTZ005>007-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069>074-078-176-177-140745-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
High Wind Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
NJZ002-NYZ067-068-140745-
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Wind Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
CTZ009>011-140745-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
High Wind Warning.
Coastal Flood Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
CTZ008-140745-
Northern New London-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
High Wind Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
NYZ075-080-178-179-140745-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
High Wind Warning.
Coastal Flood Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
ANZ335-338-345-355-140745-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Storm Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
ANZ330-340-350-353-140745-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Storm Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
NYZ079-081-140745-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
High Wind Warning.
Coastal Flood Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
CTZ012-140745-
Southern New London-
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
High Wind Warning.
Coastal Flood Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.