Winter Weather in Colorado, February 25, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
315 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

Today-tonight...an upper level low pressure area was centered near
Trenton Nebraska early this morning with some light snow being
reported from Hill City to McCook and points east.

The upper low is expected to reach south central Kansas by 18z then
southeast Kansas by 00z. Widespread light snow will move into the
area during the day then quickly decrease this evening with a
clearing sky after midnight. Snowfall accumulations are currently
expected to range from around an inch south of the interstate to 1
to 3 inches north of the interstate. The snow will be hard to
measure with north winds gusting in the 35 to 55 mph range,
highest along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border. These winds
will contribute to reduced visibilities in blowing snow. The
lowest visibilities may be along and west of the CO/KS border per
GFSLamp guidance where its advertising 1/3 to 1 mile at times from
16z or 17z through about 20z or 21z. Cant rule out some near
blizzard conditions.

High temperatures will range from the mid 20s to around 30 in far
eastern Colorado to the upper 20s to low 30s east of the CO/KS
border.

For tonight winds slowly decrease and by sunrise Wednesday morning
be in the 5 to 10 mph range from the west and northwest. Looks like
a fairly favorable setup for very cold temperatures with light
winds, a clear sky and some snow cover. I've undercut guidance a bit
and gone with a range of single digits to around 10 above zero in
far eastern Colorado, 10 to 16 degrees east of the CO/KS border.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...plenty of sunshine during the day with
an increase in clouds during the night. Currently expecting high
temperatures to range from the mid 30s to around 40 east of the
CO/KS border with low 40s in far eastern Colorado. Low temperatures
in the mid teens to low 20s.

Thursday-Thursday night...the forecast area remains under fast
northwest flow aloft in between low pressure over the Great Lakes
and high pressure over the west coast. No precipitation currently
expected. High temperatures warm into the mid 40s to around 50. Low
temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s. We currently have some
breezy northwest winds advertised during the day along and west of
the CO/KS border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

Friday through the day on Sunday will be dry and warmer with highs
reaching into the lower 60s over the weekend and lows in the 20s
and lower 30s. Monday will bring cooler temperatures with a chance
of light precipitation.

The upper ridge over the western U.S. moves over the Rockies on
Friday and flattens as it moves east of the Rockies and extends
across the central High Plains region on Saturday. A more chaotic
westerly flow aloft will be in place east of the Rockies on Sunday
as the next significant upper low drops south along the west coast
and deepens into a closed low over far southern California Sunday
night. Surface westerly flow remains somewhat weak Friday and
Saturday to assist in the warming and drying of the airmass. By
Sunday night into Monday, a surface low begins forming in the
vicinity of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico as the
upper low starts moving east over the desert southwest. As this
surface low starts moving east through the panhandle region and
along the southern KS border on Monday, there will be a chance of
light rain and snow spreading across the forecast area on Monday.
Low confidence in a specific precipitation phase and amounts
prevents mentioning anything other than a chance of light
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through about 14Z with northwest
winds gusting 35 to 40kts from the northwest. From 15z-01z sub vfr
cigs and vis expected in widespread snow and blowing snow. North
winds will likely gust over 40kts with visibility generally around
one mile but could briefly drop closer to 1/2 mile. After 02z cigs
eventually become vfr and the strong north winds start to subside
a bit, mainly from late evening through the rest of the night.

KMCK, sub vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about
22Z. Light snow at taf issuance will continue with an increasing
chance from mid morning through late afternoon. Visibilities
generally in the 1-3SM range but could be lower at times. North
winds expected to gust 35 to 40kts. After about 23z vfr
conditions return with north becoming northwest 10 to 15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

Friday, near critical fire weather conditions are possible along
and west of the Colorado Kansas border. In this area northwest
winds gusting in the 25 to 30 mph range will combine with relative
humidities in the low 20 percent range.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261300-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
240 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020 /340 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire Tri-State area
through 5 PM MST (6 PM CST).

Strong north winds will occur today. Wind gusts will range from 40
mph across the eastern portion of the area to 45 to 55 mph across the
west, highest along and west of the Colorado Kansas border. A few
gusts to 60 mph are possible.

Widespread snow is expected to move into the area from the north from
late morning through late this afternoon. Additional snowfall
accumulations of an inch or so are expected south of the interstate
with one to three inches along and north of the interstate.

The combination of widespread snow and wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph
will produce visibility reductions as low as one half mile at times.
A few locations could be a bit lower.

Motorists should be prepared for a combination of snowpacked
roadways, very strong north winds producing significant visibility
reductions in snow and blowing snow and plan some extra time to reach
their destination.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday along and
west of the Colorado Kansas border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. We would appreciate snowfall
reports and significant reductions in visibility from blowing snow
via telephone and social media.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 AM MST TUE FEB 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 AM     SNOW             MCCOOK                  40.20N 100.62W
02/25/2020  E1.0 INCH        RED WILLOW         NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTING ROADS LIGHTLY COVERED AND
            WIND BLOWN IN MANY SPOTS. VISIBILITY NO
            BETTER THAN A MILE AT TIMES.

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
651 AM MST TUE FEB 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S BURLINGTON          39.24N 102.28W
02/25/2020  M51 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

&&

JN