Wildfire in California, July 1 to 5, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1256 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...01/1255 PM.

Night through morning low clouds will continue into the valleys
through Friday, then become limited to coastal areas this
weekend. A cooling trend will occur through Thursday with breezy
conditions, especially across the Antelope Valley. A warming
trend will begin on Friday as high pressure builds in, with more
significant warming for inland areas with highs 5-10 degrees
above normal during the Fourth of July Weekend into early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...01/1243 PM.

June gloom firmly entrenched today with a strong coastal eddy
circulation keeping skies clouds much longer into the afternoon
than usual. Where skies have cleared this afternoon it will fill
in again tonight at around the same 2500-3000' depth as today and
likely a similar clearing pattern tomorrow, though eddy is
expected to be weaker so possibly earlier clearing Thursday than
today. Temps will again be below near normal for coastal areas but
below normal inland.

As the ridge starts to build Friday and into the weekend onshore
flow is expected to weaken and the combo of these two factors will
result in a warming trend and less extensive marine layer clouds
that will clear off earlier. By Saturday we should be looking at
close to triple digits in the Antelope Valley and mid 90s in the
warmer valleys. Still expecting night and morning marine lyr
clouds for at least the coastal areas though the weekend.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...01/1251 PM.

Models in decent agreement through the middle of next week.
Troughing will persist in the Pac NW but the high to our southeast
will be keeping most of that influence north of our area. Some low
grade Sundowners are possible early next week but at this point
they are looking below advisory levels. Overall, a fairly typical
early summer pattern with temps near to slightly above normals.
Models are picking up on a couple of tropical systems moving off
the coast of Mexico well to our south which may eventually bring
us more southerly swells but for now the pattern isn't favorable
for getting any subtropical moisture locally.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.

At 1730Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 3000 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 4200 feet with a temperature of
19 degrees Celsius.

Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs. Low clouds and mostly
IFR/MVFR conditions will affect the coast and vly airfields into
early to mid afternoon and again this evening thru Thu morning.
However,there is overall moderate confidence in the timing of
scattering to VFR this afternoon and the low clouds moving back in
this evening which may be off +/- an hour or two. There is also a
40% chance KPRB may not have low clouds early Thu morning.

For KPMD and KWJF, hi confidence in VFR conditions thru Thu
morning. Gusty SW winds will affect these airfields this
afternoon and evening as well.

KLAX...Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF. Low clouds and
MVFR conditions will affect the airfield into mid afternoon and
again this evening thru early Thu afternoon. However,there is
overall moderate confidence in the timing of scattering to VFR
late this afternoon and the low clouds moving back in this
evening which may be off +/- an hour or two.

KBUR...Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF. Low clouds and
MVFR conditions will affect the airfield into early this
afternoon and again later this evening thru Thu morning.
However,there is overall moderate confidence in the timing of
scattering to VFR this afternoon and the low clouds moving back in
this evening which may be off +/- an hour or two.

&&

.MARINE...01/851 AM.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in forecast. High confidence
that winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria across all the
waters today through Friday afternoon. Northwest winds are
expected to pick up in strength by Friday evening. There is a 40%
chance that winds may exceed SCA level by Friday night across the
outer waters along the Central Coast. Much better confidence by
Saturday where there is an 80% chance of SCA level winds from the
Central Coast and southward to San Nicolas Island. There is a 50%
chance that these winds may also impact the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon and evening. These
conditions will likely continue through Sunday and into mid next
week

&&

.BEACHES...01/123 AM.

Strong rip currents along with elevated surf are possible this
weekend at Southern California beaches as a long-period south
swell moves into the coastal waters from the Southern Hemisphere.
The latest swell models indicate long-period southerly swell
arriving between Friday and Saturday around 3-4 feet at 17-19
seconds to the adjacent coastal waters, then the swell
should linger into Sunday and Monday. A high surf advisory or a
beach hazards statement might be needed once the finer details
(timing, height and period) become clearer in the coming shifts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Highs around 100 degrees are possible for interior areas Saturday
through early next week with elevated fire concerns. Gusty winds
are likely early next week over the Antelope Valley and southern
Santa Barbara County which may lead to hazardous driving
conditions. Large high tides may result in tidal overflow in
vulnerable low lying areas. Strong rip currents are likely for the
Holiday weekend.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Stewart/Sirard
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

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