NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 4:48 PM PST, 2 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 2, 4:48 PM PST, 2 hours 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
448 PM PST Sun Feb 2 2020
...STRONG AND DAMAGING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND EVENT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...02/156 PM.
Strong winds and a chance of light showers move into the region
by this evening bringing a chance of snow to the major mountain
passes overnight. The cold and windy conditions continue on
Monday and many locations will have freezing temperatures Tuesday
morning. Near normal temperatures will return by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...02/242 PM.
Cold upper level trough moving into region today bringing a sharp
increase in onshore pressure gradients with a significant cooling
trend. Many areas seeing 10 to 15 degrees cooling from yesterdays
highs.
A potent and mostly dry cold front will bring a dramatic turn to
the weather later this afternoon into tonight. The cold front
will not have much moisture to work with, but there is a slight
of light showers tonight across LA county, with a better chance
across the mountains (especially north facing slopes). The snow
levels will be around 4000 feet in the Grapevine area by 8 pm,
lowering rapidly to around 2000 feet by 10 pm. With moisture
limited, only expecting a dusting to 1 inch accumulations of snow
across the mountains, including Interstate 5 near the Grapevine.
However, it must be emphasized that dangerous traveling conditions
can be expected tonight across mountain roadways (including I-5
near Grapevine) due to the potential for black ice(as a
significant surge of cold air moves in at low levels), very strong
winds, and dangerous wind chills to around zero degrees to -10
degrees.
Widespread damaging wind event still on track and will be the
biggest impact of this weather system. All 3 ingredients for a
significant wind event are in place later this afternoon into
tonight including rapidly developing north-south offshore
gradients that will peak around -6 mb from SBA- Bakersfield and
-8 mb from LAX- Bakersfield, strong upper level wind support
(50-60 knots between 850 and 700 mb levels), and strong cold air
advection that will help to transport winds to the surface. In
addition, the SBA-Santa Maria gradient is expected to peak
between -5 and -6 mb this evening.
The entire forecast area is under either a high wind warning or a
strong wind advisory. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for full
and exact details. There is a high likelihood that there will be
some downed trees and powerlines as well as power outages. Also,
high profile vehicles (including big rigs) could be blown over,
especially along the I-5 corridor and Highway 138.
Most areas under the high wind warning will likely see damaging
wind gusts of 60-70 mph. High resolution model data continues to
place the bullseye of strongest winds across the I-5 corridor in
the LA county mountains, where isolated gusts of 80-90 mph will be
likely (especially near Whitaker Peak). The Santa Ynez mountains
and adjacent foothills could also see isolated gusts as high as 80
mph. The remaining portions of the forecast area have wind
advisories posted, with gusts in the 35 to 55 mph range.
The strong winds will also bring elevated fire weather concerns,
especially considering the increased threat of ignitions due to
downed powerlines. There will be no Red Flag Warnings issued for
this event due to higher humidity levels, but it should be noted
that humidity levels will likely drop into the 20's across some
downslope areas after midnight.
The winds will make low temperature forecasts tricky tonight but
with the amount of cold air moving in, freezing or near freezing
temperatures are likely late tonight across wind sheltered portions
of the the Central Coast, Ventura coastal valleys, and Santa Monica
mountains where a frost advisory was issued. Temperatures could
fall as low as the mid to upper 20s across the Ojai valley tonight,
resulting in the issuance of a Freeze Warning.
As drier air and lighter winds move into the region, there
is the potential for even colder temperatures Monday night and
Tuesday night. While the Antelope Valley and interior valleys of
SLO/SBA counties have already seen 2 or more hard freezes this
season, opted to issue a Hard Freeze Watch for these areas on
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings to coordinate with SGX issuances,
and due to the fact that this will likely be the coldest overnight
lows we have seen so far this season for these areas. In fact
Tuesday and Wednesday morning lows into the teens are expected
across the Antelope Valley and portions of the interior SLO county
valleys, which could also bring the potential for bursting pipes
that are left unprotected.
Moderate offshore winds will develop Monday night into Tuesday
with a drying trend. Wind gusts across wind prone areas of LA/Ventura
counties are expected to range between 35 and 55 mph, strongest in
the mountains.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...02/234 PM.
From Thursday through Saturday, there will be a gradual warming
trend as heights build across the region. By next Sunday, another
cold storm system will bring a 20-30 percent chance of showers
to the region. This system will likely bring very low snow levels.
&&
.AVIATION...03/0037Z.
At 2230Z, the marine layer depth was around 1500 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was around 24000 feet with a
temperature of 13 degrees Celsius. There was another inversion up
to around 3500 feet.
Moderate confidence through 07Z, high confidence after 07Z. There
is a chance of MVFR conditions through 07Z at Los Angeles County
coastal and valley terminals, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected through the period. Periods of moderate to strong wind
shear and turbulence are possible at all terminals through 14Z.
KLAX...There is a 50 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
06Z. Northerly cross winds greater than 10 knots will develop
between 06Z and 14Z, possibly extending as late as 17Z. There is
a 40 percent chance of northerly cross winds greater 20 knots
between 11Z and 13Z. There is a 50 percent chance of moderate to
strong wind shear and turbulence between 07Z and 16Z.
KBUR...There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
06Z. There is a 80 percent chance of strong wind shear and
turbulence between 06Z and 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...02/950 AM.
High confidence in very dangerous sea conditions from this
morning through Monday night.
Storm Force Wind gusts (50 knots or greater) are likely across
the entire outer waters beginning this morning and continuing
through Monday morning, followed by Gale force winds into Monday
evening. There is a 40 percent chance that winds will drop to SCA
levels Monday afternoon. SCA level winds will likely continue
through late Mon night, with SCA level seas continuing through
Tue. There is a chance that winds will also remain at SCA levels
across the outer waters on Tue.
Across the northern inner waters, Storm Force Wind gusts are
likely from this afternoon through tonight, followed by Gale
Conditions late tonight through Mon afternoon. There is a 40
percent chance that winds will drop to SCA levels Monday
afternoon. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will likely
continue through late Mon night, with seas likely remaining at or
above SCA levels thru Tue.
Gale force W to NW winds are expected to develop across the SBA
Channel later this morning, then persist through Mon morning, and
across the southern inner waters from early this afternoon
through Mon morning. Winds will likely become northerly across the
waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica and southward to Catalina
Island late tonight and Mon morning. SCA level winds will likely
persist in these areas through Mon afternoon or evening.
These winds will quickly generate very steep seas everywhere,
from 10-15 feet at 7 to 9 seconds from Santa Barbara to Los
Angeles, to 17-21 feet at 7 to 11 seconds from the Central Coast
to San Nicolas Island. This is a fairly rare event, with
conditions like this occurring once every 5 to 10 years. It is
strongly encouraged for mariners to plan on staying in safe harbor
through Monday.
There is a 50 percent chance of SCA level NE winds across the
inner waters, mainly from Ventura or Point Mugu to Santa Monica
and through the San Pedro Channel Tue morning.
&&
.BEACHES...02/1023 AM.
Very large seas will result in rough, short period high surf on
area beaches today into Monday. Surf is expected to build to
between 10 and 15 feet with locally higher sets along the Central
Coast today and continue through Monday. This will likely result
in powerful and frequent breaking waves on west and northwest
facing shores, along with frequent strong rip currents. A High
Surf Advisory is in effect for the Central Coast from this
morning through Monday night.
High Surf Advisories remain in effect for west-facing beaches
south of Point Conception late this afternoon or evening through
Mon, with sets of 5 to 8 feet expected. On the Santa Barbara South
Coast, surf of 4 to 6 feet is expected, and in all areas the
waves will be short period and very rough. Strong rip currents are
expected in most area.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Storm Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zone 34. (See LAXMWWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Monday for zones
34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for
zones 34>36. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Frost Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for
zones 34-35-45-46. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Freeze Watch in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
morning for zones 34-35-39-45-46-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Freeze Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning for zones 34-35-39-45-46-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Hard Freeze Watch in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday morning for zones 36>38-44-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Hard Freeze Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning for zones 36>38-44-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST Monday for zones
37-38-40-45-51. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect until noon PST Monday for zones
39-52>54-59-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 AM PST Tuesday for zones
40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to noon PST
Monday for zones 41-46-87. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to noon
PST Monday for zones 44-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Freeze Warning in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for
zone 44. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until noon PST Monday for zones
650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).
Areas of freeze or hard freeze conditions are likely across
portions of Southwest California late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. Single digit temperatures could occur in the
mountains and teens in the Antelope Valley and portions of SLO
county interior Valleys, bringing the potential for bursting
pipes.
&&
PUBLIC...Gomberg
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Sweet/DB
BEACHES...Sweet/DB
SYNOPSIS...Kj
weather.gov/losangeles