High Wind in California, April 1, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
251 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures will prevail across the area into the
weekend. A dry cold front will push through the area on Today,
keeping gusty winds in the Kern County mountains and desert. A
series of weather systems may bring unsettle weather conditions
late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pleasant spring day felt across the Central California Interior
as sunshine was observed over most of the Valley along with
slightly warmer temperatures. A weak cold frontal passage this
afternoon across Central California produced a stronger surface
pressure gradient. This stronger gradient helped support a biuld-
up of clouds along the mountain sides as well as windy conditions
over Kern County. A wind advisory is currently in effect for the
Kern County Mountains and Deserts where wind speeds could reach 45
mph through 9 PM PDT this evening. Once the frontal passage
pushes further into the Desert Southwest, surface pressure
gradients will relax and allow for lower wind speeds on Thursday
and Friday. While a northwest flow aloft will keep any warming
trend at a minimal level, it will keep the door open for a series
of short-wave disturbance to cross the region for a continuation
of unsettled conditions.

Models confidence remain at higher levels with the weekend
developing system. Currently, water vapor imagery is starting to
resolve the next disturbance to affect the region out south of the
Aleutian Islands. Once the disturbance cross the Gulf of Alaska,
its expected to get caught in the Northwesterly flow and begin
dropping toward the California Coast. Precipitation will enter the
state along the extreme northwest corner with the bulk of the
precipitation remaining offshore. Models attempting to keep the
center of the disturbance offshore will increase support for
having the heavier precipitation in a offshore location. Light
precipitation could reach the northern border of the district
around midday on Saturday with more significant amounts occurring
later in the day. While confidence is high that measurable
precipitation may occur over the northern half of the district
(north of Kern County), the trajectory of the disturbance moving
mostly through Northern California will limit precipitation to
lighter amounts. This will be followed by a second stronger
disturbance riding behind the initial disturbance and taking a
more southerly route. While model confidence begins to lower early
next week, models are trending toward taking the second
disturbance down the California Coast possibly all the way to
Southern California. Model solutions become more complicated
toward the end of the forecast period (the middle of next week).

The second disturbance will begin entering the region on Sunday
with increasing chances of precipitation during the day. Better
upper level dynamics move into the area later on Sunday with
possibly heavier precipitation during the overnight hours. While
the offshore trajectory of the upper low is the most plausible,
based on previous storm tracks, cut-off lows still present a big
challenge for the area going into the middle of next week. Most of
the longer range deterministic models lean toward a slower and
more offshore solution with possible precipitation going into the
middle of next week. By the middle of next week (Wednesday),
models attempt to converge on a similar solution. Therefore, its
possible that the cut-off low may push into Southern California
around the Wednesday period and allow for a gradual drying of the
district.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong gusty winds in the Kern County mountain passes and desert
are likely through 05Z Thursday. Local areas of MVFR/IFR in low
clouds and mountain obscurations possible along the valley facing
sides of the Tehachapi mountains through 19Z Wednesday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail at MCE, MER, FAT, VIS, and BFL
through at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ196-198-199.

&&

public/aviation....Molina

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