Winter Weather in Arkansas, February 5 to 6, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
244 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.Short Term...Tonight thru Friday...
Freezing rain started to accumulate a bit earlier today in the
higher terrain, and this prompted the issuance of a winter weather
advisory for three counties in the NW. While the freezing rain has
largely concluded for the moment, I do anticipate some light snow
accumulations and a bit of sleet in this area tonight, so I will
leave this in place until 06Z.

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front well to the southeast
of Arkansas now, with a sharp gradient along the boundary. Colder
air has been gradually filtering into the region today, although the
freeze line has been just northwest of the state, albeit for the
higher terrain.

Ongoing heavy precip across the southern and eastern half of the
state will give way to lighter rainfall later this evening. Radar is
showing snow bands over central and eastern OK, and these will make
their way into western and northwestern AR later this evening into
the overnight hours. At the moment it appears that the heavier
snowfall should be primarily outside of the LZK forecast area, with
just a bit of lighter snow in the northern and western zones,
primarily in the higher terrain.

The vigorous upper level trof across the midsection of the country
will make its way eastward across the region tonight and tomorrow,
eventually allowing skies to clear by tomorrow night. Temperatures
are going to remain quite chilly in the wake of the cold front, but
will start to recover somewhat by Friday.

&&

.Extended Term...Friday Night thru Tuesday...
The long term portion of the forecast remains largely unchanged this
afternoon, with unsettled conditions expected. At the beginning of
the period, a quick moving system will progress southeastward along
with a cold front at the surface. Precip chances are limited to
southern areas, which should reduce any potential for wintry precip.

By Sunday into Monday, the flow aloft begins to modify as an area of
low pressure dives south along the CA coast and becomes cutoff. With
moisture streaming in from the southwest and a cold front making its
way across the Southern Plains, chances will increase for showers
and thunderstorms across the state.

There may be a brief lull in precip across the state as the front
stalls south of the area. But, the western H500 low will begin to
eject northeastward toward the middle of the country. The stalled
front to the south will lift north as a warm front and a developing
area of low pressure to the west will drag a cold front toward the
state. Needless to say, additional rain and thunderstorms can be
expected across the area. With this being so far out in the
forecast, much can change still.

Temperatures through the period will fluctuate a bit, starting near
average for early February with a general warming trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     34  39  28  45 /  60  20  10  10
Camden AR         39  43  30  55 /  50  20   0   0
Harrison AR       28  33  24  44 /  70  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    36  40  29  51 /  60  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  37  41  30  49 /  60  20  10  10
Monticello AR     40  43  31  52 /  60  30  10   0
Mount Ida AR      33  39  28  51 /  50  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  30  36  25  45 /  50  10   0   0
Newport AR        35  39  28  45 /  50  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     39  42  30  51 /  70  30  10   0
Russellville AR   35  41  27  49 /  50  10   0   0
Searcy AR         36  40  28  48 /  60  20  10  10
Stuttgart AR      38  41  30  49 /  70  20  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Boone-
Johnson-Newton.

&&

Short Term...53 / Extended Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
334 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
334 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Periods of light to occasionally moderate rain will continue
through the night for most of the state. A few thunderstorms can
not be ruled out as well. Temperatures will remain just warm
enough that only a cold rain is expected. The precipitation will
become more scattered in nature through the night.

The exception will be across the far northwest where a light
wintry mix is possible. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain
could occur with the higher terrain areas picking up a light
accumulation of snow or a light glazing of ice.

In general, impacts due to the snow and ice will be minor.
However, as temperatures dip well below freezing tonight in the
northwest, some roads may become icy and partially snow covered,
especially bridges and overpasses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

All precipitation will exit the region to the east on Thursday.
There will be lots of clouds, and temperatures will struggle to
reach freezing in the northwest. Given this, minor travel issues due
to snow and ice may persist in the morning.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.