Heavy rain again brought flooding to the Ouachita River at Camden 2/18-19/2020.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain again brought flooding to the Ouachita River at Camden 2/18-19/2020.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 5:31 PM CST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 531 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020 .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs, mostly MVFR/VFR conditions are forecast. Rain showers lingering across central and southern portions of the state should continue to dissipate and move out of the state through the evening hours. Dry air will continue to filter into the state from the north, allowing for VFR conditions through the later half of the forecast period. Northerly/northeasterly winds should remain near or below 15kts aside from some isolated gusts early this evening across the far SE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 348 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Subjective surface analysis showed that a cold front had moved south of Arkansas and was just entering northern Louisiana as of 3 PM CST. North of the front frontogenetic forcing, primarily along the 925 to 850 mb elevated slope of the front, was providing sufficient mesoscale forcing for ascent to allow for a few discrete bands of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop and track east, more or less parallel to the front...aligned with the zonal winds aloft. Although individual cells within these bands were moving east at about 40 mph, the bands as a whole were exhibiting a behavior of training resulting in locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding. A few of the isolated thunderstorms produced pea to nickel sized hail earlier, but those stronger isolated thunderstorms had moved closer to the leading edge of the front and were over southern Arkansas, just north of the Louisiana border. Expect that we will dry out from northwest to southeast throughout the late afternoon and evening hours as the 925-850 mb slope of the frontal boundary slides south of the state and drier air works in the low-levels. We can already see this happening across northwest Arkansas based on visible satellite imagery with clear skies observed over far northwest Arkansas. Once skies clear out overnight, temperatures should cool below freezing across the northern part of the state with temperatures holding up in the mid to upper 30s across central and south Arkansas where cloud cover could be a bit more persistent this evening. Wednesday will remain dry, but we will see an increase in cloud cover from overcast cirrus clouds by Wednesday afternoon, working down to altostratus and eventually low-level stratus as we get into the evening and overnight hours. This top-down saturation of the atmosphere is associated with large scale forcing for ascent associated with a strong shortwave trough that is expected to move over Arkansas Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Once the trough arrives, we will see another chance of precipitation across the state, but on Wednesday, it looks like we will just be dealing with increasing cloudiness with temperatures remaining near seasonal normals with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the state. Wednesday night - Thursday morning... The bulk of the large scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will move over the state Wednesday night through Thursday morning, but the large scale forcing for ascent associated with the trough itself looks to be somewhat limited over Arkansas. The trough is progged to move over northern Arkansas with an extreme positive tilt keeping the bulk of the differential positive vorticity advection (DPVA) and differential temperature advection north of the state. The trough will bring some relatively strong low-level warm air advection from the lower to mid troposphere, and that combined with the top-down saturation aloft should be sufficient to allow for some widespread precipitation to develop over southwest Arkansas and spread northeast from Wednesday evening through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. The large scale warm air advection is strongest over southern...creeping into central Arkansas early Thursday morning, but this quickly shifts to cold air advection again by late Thursday morning as the strongly positively tilted trough moves east along the Arkansas/Missouri border. The reason why it's worth getting into the technical aspects of the lift in this situation is because temperatures are cold enough to allow for the potential for wintry weather across northern Arkansas, especially in the higher terrain of the Ozarks. Diagnosing the forcing for ascent becomes important because there is a discrepancy between forecast models regarding the amount of precipitation that may fall over northern Arkansas when temperatures are cold enough for wintry weather. The GFS seems to be the most aggressive with QPF advertising a little over a tenth of an inch over the Ozarks early Thursday morning...this would most likely equate to an inch or slightly more of snowfall if it panned out. The ECMWF advertises a couple of hundredths of an inch of precipitation which equates to a tenth of an inch or so of snowfall, while the NAM offers a compromise between the two solutions. For this forecast, trended towards the ECMWF solution because of the diagnosis of the large scale forcing for ascent Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The GFS/NAM/ECMWF all agree that DPVA will be limited and will likely not play a large role in the placement of precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Assuming that is true, following the warm air advection should result in the highest confidence in precipitation placement during this timeframe. With warm air advection maximized across southern Arkansas and maybe pushing as far north as central Arkansas, think that the chances of getting accumulating/measurable precipitation across northern Arkansas is low at this time with a much better chance of seeing measurable precipitation across central and southern Arkansas. Across central and southern Arkansas temperatures are expected to remain warm enough that precipitation will simply fall as a cool rain. Turning our attention back north to where wintry precipitation is possible, think that the lack of DPVA and warm air advection will lead to very little precipitation over the Ozarks/northern Arkansas from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. All models do show at least some precipitation over the Ozarks and northern Arkansas in general, and once again, all models agree that it will be cold enough for frozen precipitation, so went ahead and mentioned a 20-30 percent chance of snow Wednesday night through Thursday morning across north central and northwest Arkansas. Right now have a tenth to two tenths of an inch of snowfall in the forecast, but think that ground temperatures will remain warm enough to melt most of the snowfall as it reaches the ground, except on elevated surfaces. As a result, do not think that there is much if any threat of wintry weather affecting travel plans Thursday morning across northern Arkansas and will not be issuing any winter weather headlines as a result. For now it looks like the worst case scenario is that snow melts on bridges and overpasses in the area and freezes into patches of black ice on these elevated surfaces. Any roads in contact with the ground will likely just see snow melt and then evaporate before any travel issues are possible. We will obviously be keeping a very close eye on this timeframe moving forward as a shift in the northern extent of warm air advection could drive higher precipitation amount farther north. At this time however, it looks like a very low to no impact event despite the chance of snow in the forecast for the Ozarks and northern Arkansas Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to climb above freezing, so any snow that does make it on the ground will likely melt/sublimate by Thursday afternoon. Expect dry conditions across the state by Thursday afternoon as the DPVA and warm air advection both shut down and move east away from the state. Cavanaugh LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Long term beginning 00Z Fri 2/21/20 - 00Z Wed 2/26/20 An unsettled and dynamic pattern looks to unfold in the long term. The period begins in the presence of highly amplified H500 flow, with a strong, positively tilted trough axis extending from Newfoundland, W/SW towards the Cntrl Plains, with modest ridging over the Rockies separating the Ern wave from the next approaching system off the cost of CA. Strong forcing for descent upstream of the aforementioned trough axis will manifest as a broad region of sfc high pressure extending over most of the MS/OH River valleys. Calm and cool weather on Friday will be short lived as the high shifts Ewrd, and rapid cyclogenesis occurs over the OK/TX panhandle, coming into phase with the new ejecting shortwave trough and enhancing the low-level mass response. WA/moisture advection will occur through the first half of the weekend, with precip chances returning to the fcst area by Sat night. Long range guidance is exhibiting good agreement with the movement and timing of the upper wave, ejecting it over AR Sun night, and placing the sfc low in Ern OK with a warm front likely draped E/NE across the AR/MO border region. A combo of strong upper level support and isentropic ascent along the warm front will promote widespread precip chances as this system tracks across the fcst area and lifts N/E Mon night. Another brief period of calm weather ensues on Tues with seasonable temperatures in the wake of the old low. Tues morning, broad positive H500 troughing will be in place over the Cntrl US per the GFS/ECMWF, with a jet streak/vort max on the upstream side over the Rockies. Through the end of the period, the upper low will dig further into the Srn US, taking on a more neutral/negative tilt, and progging another significant low-level mass response across S/W OK. The low will quickly lift towards the N/E, moving across the fcst region and promoting widespread precip chances along the tailing cold front. Green && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...CROSS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 416 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191115- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 416 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A cold front continues to move through the state this morning with widespread precipitation accompanying the boundary. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front with localized areas of heavy rain. However, no widespread hazardous weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday Cold air will settle into the state on Wednesday behind a cold front and remain in place over the region through the end of the work week. Precipitation is expected to develop over Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time a wintry mix will be possible across the higher terrain of the Ozarks, Boston Mountains, and Ouachita Mountains. Amounts are expected to be light with minimal impacts. Precipitation is forecast to come to an end by Thursday afternoon. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
134 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020
ARZ067>069-182015-
Bradley AR-Drew AR-Calhoun AR-
134 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BRADLEY...SOUTHEASTERN
CALHOUN AND SOUTHWESTERN DREW COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...
At 133 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hilo, or 16 miles southeast of Hampton, moving east at 30 mph.
Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Hermitage... Ingalls...
Hilo... Moro Bay State Park...
Moro Bay... New Hope in Drew County...
Johnsonville... Vick...
Valley... Gravelridge...
Mt Olive in Bradley County... Marsden...
Sumpter... Lacey...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3328 9233 3328 9236 3330 9236 3328 9239
3339 9243 3356 9186 3340 9182 3340 9199
3339 9199 3337 9196 3335 9197 3335 9199
3330 9198 3330 9200 3328 9200 3326 9229
3328 9230 3326 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 257DEG 25KT 3334 9231
CavanaughPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
308 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM FLASH FLOOD MALVERN 34.37N 92.82W
02/18/2020 HOT SPRING AR NEWSPAPER
FLOODED ROADS PREVENTED DELIVERY OF NEWSPAPERS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LZK2000143
232PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
311 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 N POYEN 34.38N 92.64W
02/18/2020 GRANT AR SOCIAL MEDIA
WATER MOVING OVER HIGHWAY 229 NORTH OF POYEN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LZK2000144
232The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding returned to the Ouachita River at Arkadelphia due to heavy rain on 2/18-19/2020.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 877524.