It warmed up by the 18th, with 50s across the northern counties, and 60s/70s farther south. It was 72 degrees at Monticello (Drew County).
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
It warmed up by the 18th, with 50s across the northern counties, and 60s/70s farther south. It was 72 degrees at Monticello (Drew County). Yet another cold front from Canada was on the horizon.
As the front neared, rain and scattered thunderstorms developed during the morning in central Arkansas. Malvern (Hot Spring County) picked up 4.23 inches of liquid, with 2.60 inches at Hot Springs National Park (Garland County), 2.12 inches at Big Fork (Polk County) and Keo (Lonoke County), and 1.81 inches at DeGray Lake State Park (Clark/Hot Spring Counties) and Mount Ida (Montgomery County).
Roads flooded in Malvern (Hot Spring County), and this prevented the delivery of newspapers. Water was over Highway 229 north of Poyen (Grant County). Several streets were closed near Traskwood (Saline County) and Tull (Grant County) due to high water.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 5:45 AM CST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 545 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020 .AVIATION... Cold front is located from SW to NE Arkansas this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it moves south with additional precipitation possible through the afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail for most of the day with conditions slowly improving this evening and overnight to VFR. SE winds prevail in advance of the front with winds shifting to the NE behind it. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 349 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020) Short term...Today through Thursday Overall the model guidance has not really changed considerably and is still advertising a fairly progressive pattern with an outside chance of a little winter weather. NAM solution remains the cold outlier and even it has dropped snow amounts versus previous runs. GFS has also back tracked from its snow amounts versus the past few days but this model has been struggling this entire season. Overall the ECMWF solution has been performing admirably of late and now has no mention of snow. Feel the best course of action will be to try to blend these solutions but regardless, it looks like the window for any wintry precipitation will be small with minimal accumulations. Latest surface analysis places a cold front roughly bisecting the state from southwest to northeast. Fairly widespread precipitation is occurring along the boundary with the occasional rumble of thunder occurring mainly south of the I-40 corridor where some instability is noted. Front will continue to move through the state this morning but its forward movement will likely be slowed somewhat as it runs into upper ridging in the gulf. Weak surface low along the boundary is located near Mena at this time and expected to move into central LA by the end of the day. This will keep higher rain chances across the south for most of the day while rain chances will be decreasing elsewhere as the day progresses. Behind the front, high pressure will build into the state with much cooler air coming in on northeast winds. Highs will occur early in the day today with temperatures steady or slowly dropping as the cooler air filters in. High temperatures will be in the 50s on Wednesday and only in the 40s Thursday. Next wave will start to approach the area late Wednesday with precipitation initiating Wednesday night and into Thursday. With Canadian high sitting to the north, there will be a window late Wednesday and into early Thursday morning for some light snow or a rain/snow mix over the north and across the higher terrain areas. Once again the coldest air does not really get in phase with the deepest moisture and accumulations will be light. That and the fact the system will a quick mover and basically out of the state by early Thursday will preclude any winter weather headlines at this time. High pressure will be building into the state as the period ends with a return to chilly conditions to start the extended. Long Term...Thursday night through Monday The long term period will begin on a quiet note compared to the short term. Aloft, longwave troughing will be sliding east from the Upper MS Valley towards the OH and TN Valleys as an expansive upper ridge moves into the nations mid section. This upper feature will encourage a strong area of surface high pressure (~1040mb), presently located over the high plains, to dive S towards AR. As this happens, a surface cold front will push S towards the Gulf Coast. Precipitation will come to an abrupt end with skies clearing during the day Friday. Temperatures during the afternoon will be chilly despite ample sunshine with highs topping out in the upper 30s to upper 40s. On Saturday, the upper ridge will translate eastward with the approach of an upper closed low moving onto the CA coast. Surface high pressure will shift east in response to this. Surface flow will become southerly and increase in magnitude allowing for warmer temperatures and increased moisture to return to the lower levels of the atmosphere. Highs will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, the progressive upper trough will move across the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis will develop over NM. A warm front will lift Nwrd across the region in response to strengthening surface low overnight, increasing PoPs from SW to NE across the state. On Sunday, the surface low is expected to move across Nrn TX/Srn OK beneath the aforementioned upper closed low. PoPs will increase significantly during the early to late morning time frame. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely. Models remain in good agreement with respect to upper features and overall development of a surface low. However, the track begins to diverge Sunday with GFS taking the most Nrn track and USAF taking the most Srn track. A ECMWF/ICON blend will be used as the preferred track which lies between both N and S solutions. Given this, the low is expected to track over C AR Sunday night into Monday morning. A compact weak shortwave ridge will move into the C plains by Monday, quick on the heels of the surface low, before more pronounced troughing dives S into the Rockies. Dry weather is expected locally on Monday before PoPs increase heading into Tuesday. Temperatures will modify both Sunday and Monday with sustained southerly flow. Highs will be in 50s and 60s by Monday afternoon. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...GOUDSWARD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 416 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191115- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 416 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A cold front continues to move through the state this morning with widespread precipitation accompanying the boundary. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front with localized areas of heavy rain. However, no widespread hazardous weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday Cold air will settle into the state on Wednesday behind a cold front and remain in place over the region through the end of the work week. Precipitation is expected to develop over Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time a wintry mix will be possible across the higher terrain of the Ozarks, Boston Mountains, and Ouachita Mountains. Amounts are expected to be light with minimal impacts. Precipitation is forecast to come to an end by Thursday afternoon. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:30 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooded roads prevented the delivery of newspapers.
Due to extensive flooding, several roads in Saline County were closed near Traskwood and Tull and up to the Grant County line. Water was moving swiftly over some roads.
Water was moving over Hwy 229 north of Poyen.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 877461, 877463, 877467.