A mid-level closed low centered off the coast of Southern California brought abundant moisture into Arizona from the southwest. Areas of heavy rain fell south of Interstate 40 and east of Flagstaff.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A mid-level closed low centered off the coast of Southern California brought abundant moisture into Arizona from the southwest. Areas of heavy rain fell south of Interstate 40 and east of Flagstaff. Light to moderate rain fell elsewhere with snow levels generally above 8000 feet. A cold front then dropped snow levels to below 6000 feet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 2:48 PM MST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 248 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS...A storm system will continue to bring areas of rain and high country snow to the northern Arizona through tonight. Some lingering showers will persist on Sunday, with dry weather forecast from Monday onward. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite and upper-air analysis shows a mid-level closed low moving into Southern California. Moisture continues to stream into Arizona from the southwest, although water vapor imagery shows dry air working it's way into western Arizona as the subtropical moisture plume migrates eastward. Widespread rainfall has been observed across virtually all of northern Arizona. The heaviest rainfall has occurred across northwest Gila County, where between 1 to 2 inches has fallen. A Flash Flood Watch continues for northern Gila County through midnight tonight. As the day progresses, precipitation may become more showery, especially across western Arizona. Snow levels are generally expected to remain at or above 8000 feet or so, until the arrival of the cold front later this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, snow levels will drop quickly allowing for some light, high elevation snow accumulations. In general, the forecast calls for 1-4 inches of snow above 6000 feet, with locally higher amounts over mountains and favorable upslope regions roughly from Happy Jack to Forest Lakes. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau. Snowfall amounts are expected to be around 2 to 4 inches there, with some roads like Buffalo Pass seeing amounts closer to 4 to 8 inches of accumulation. The forecast calls for lingering rain and snow showers behind the departing low on Sunday. Then, dry conditions are forecast through the remainder of the work week. High temperatures will dip on Tuesday with the passage of a dry cold front. Dry and mild conditions are expected for the second half of next week as a ridge of high pressure off the California coast develops and exerts its influence over the American Southwest through the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION....For the 00Z package...Rain showers will change to rain/snow mix above 7000 ft MSL around 00Z before becoming predominantly snow down to 6000 ft MSL after 03Z. Isolated -TSRA are possible across the area. Precipitation and cloud cover will clear from west to east after 12Z. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities through 21Z for the high terrain. Obscured peaks and ridges are being observed as a result of the MVFR/IFR conditions. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Snow levels will drop to 6000 feet tonight as wetting rains and snow will continue overnight. Rain and snow showers will clear from west to east through the day Sunday. Monday will be the start of a dry period with breezy northwesterly winds. .Tuesday through Thursday....Cool temperatures Tuesday will warm each day through the period with breezy northeasterly winds. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ011. Flash Flood Watch until midnight MST tonight FOR AZZ018. && PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...NL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:57 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two people were canyoneering in Bull Canyon (also known as Water Slide Canyon) near Cherry Creek when one was swept away by rushing waters. An inch and a half to two inches of rain had fallen in the drainage in the previous 11 hours.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Gila | 2020-02-22 | 44 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 870187.