What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 7, 2:20 PM AKST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 2:20 PM AKST, 5 hours 30 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
.SHORT TERM...While moderate confidence exists for the winter
storm warning for the far northern Panhandle (Upper Lynn Canal
highways as well as Yakutat), we made some significant changes in
the snow forecast for the central Panhandle.
Currently, the Panhandle lies under a very unstable regime with
scattered snow and rain showers occurring across much of the
Panhandle and even some sleet and graupel yesterday. Dewpoints are
also currently very dry ensuring low wet-bulb temperatures.
However, strong warm air advection ensues tonight as an
atmospheric river readies to spray the area. One other signal for
us was frontal orientation. The front, contrary to a northwest
southeast orientation pushes in with a north-south orientation.
This should more efficiently drive warmer air northward to cut
snowfall totals over the north. MOS numbers as well as NBM
temperature guidance supports this change. In addition, modified
late season polar air mass, if we can describe it that way, is not
deep, and has allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 30s
today. With thickening clouds and increased virga in the dry mid-
levels, we will definitely see some cooling. But we are
increasingly confident that only slushy accumulations will occur
across Juneau and the Icy Strait Corridor, as well as the higher
elevations of our southern areas including, Prince of Wales and
the Ketchikan area. Make no mistake: snow that does fall will be
heavy--IN WEIGHT--with high moisture content. Just not heavy as in
accumulations. A newly refreshed special weather statement
attempts to clarify our changes to the public.
We also moved up winds, especially for the south and bumped them
up, although not really to gale except Clarence Strait on
Wednesday. Strong wind gusts look near certain for Juneau, Sitka,
and Prince of Wales Island. But wrapped into the warning
statements, they also will be likely for Haines and Yakutat.
Skagway and Lynn Canal winds will be a difficult forecast. We
think they may hold back initially with higher confidence in
strong winds Wednesday post-frontal passage.
The forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday basically remains
unchanged. Confidence remains precariously low as with any "winter
event" in springtime. But we feel strongly that the forecast
represents the highest probability of occurrence.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...As of 10 PM
Monday...Overall quiet weather pattern for SE Alaska for the long
range after an active spring system. Upper ridge builds over the
AK Gulf Thursday into Friday then will shift to the east through
the weekend. How fast this shift occurs will be the determining
factor for when/where/how fast/how strong the resulting upstream
waves will be. After diminishing shower activity on Thursday from
NW to SE the panhandle will be in a dry period with large diurnal
temperature swings. Relatively clear skies with additional day
time heating in the low 40s to possible low 50s and nocturnal
radiational cooling with temps in the low 20s and possibly lower
for higher elevations and far northern areas. Flow pattern shift
to offshore by Friday. Next potential low moves in to the Gulf
Saturday into Sunday. While models are starting to show some
agreement, run to run differences were rather large due to models
dealing with the blocking ridge. Either way the low is on the weak
side and not expecting much significant weather to result. Kept
with ensemble solutions for the long range with forecast
confidence being low, even with uneventful weather.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for AKZ027.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for
AKZ025.
Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon
for AKZ023.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
Wednesday for AKZ018-019.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT
Wednesday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053.
&&
Adkins/Boyd
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauIn the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 7, 2:24 PM AKST, 5 hours 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
AKZ020>022-024-025-080530-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican,
Angoon, and Juneau
324 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
...SNOW FORECASTS LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY...
Temperatures are now forecasted to be warmer Tuesday night than
previously thought. As a result we are now expecting lower
snowfall accumulations and an earlier mix and changeover to rain
Wednesday. Snowfall amounts will be less than 2 inches, with most
areas one inch or less. Snow that does accumulate will be very
wet, slushy, and heavy in weight. While not likely, it is possible
that some areas will see no accumulation at all.
AKZ023-026>029-080530-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Sitka, Port Alexander, Petersburg,
Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Hyder
324 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
...HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME LOCAL LIGHT SNOW...
Heavy rain, with perhaps some mix of snow early, will develop
early Wednesday morning and continue through Wednesday. A few
areas, notably Petersburg, Kake, Hyder, and higher elevations
around Ketchikan and on Prince of Wales Island, may see 1 to 2
inches. Snow that does fall will be very wet, slushy, and heavy in
weight. At this time no flooding issues are expected. Some gusty
winds to 45 mph will accomany the heavy rain on Baranof and
Prince of Wales Islands.
Special weather statement, Apr 7, 2:54 PM AKST, 4 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
AKZ020>022-024-025-080530-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican,
Angoon, and Juneau
354 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
...SNOW FORECASTS LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY...
Temperatures are now forecasted to be warmer Tuesday night than
previously thought. As a result we are now expecting lower
snowfall accumulations and an earlier mix and changeover to rain
Wednesday. Snowfall amounts will be less than 2 inches, with most
areas one inch or less. Snow that does accumulate will be very
wet, slushy, and heavy in weight. While not likely, it is possible
that some areas will see no accumulation at all.
AKZ023-026>029-080530-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Sitka, Port Alexander, Petersburg,
Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Hyder
354 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
...HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME LOCAL LIGHT SNOW...
Heavy rain, with perhaps some mix of snow early, will develop
early Wednesday morning and continue through Wednesday. A few
areas, notably Petersburg, Kake, Hyder, and higher elevations
around Ketchikan and on Prince of Wales Island, may see 1 to 2
inches. Snow that does fall will be very wet, slushy, and heavy in
weight. At this time no flooding issues are expected. Some gusty
winds to 45 mph will accompany the heavy rain on Baranof and
Prince of Wales Islands.