The third in a series of storms causing high winds over a few days. A well developed low tracked NE into the SE Gulf of Alaska.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
The third in a series of storms causing high winds over a few days. A well developed low tracked NE into the SE Gulf of Alaska. A tight pressure gradient caused strong winds just off the surface. Conditions become unstable enough in the evening for the winds to mix to surface.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 1:58 PM AKST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 PM AKDT Tue Apr 28 2020
.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday evening through Thursday/ Wet weather
continues over the region today as another area of low pressure
moves northward into the southeastern gulf. As of Tuesday
afternoon, a 989 mb occluded low was centered around 53 N, 139 W
with a front pushing northward through the Panhandle. Guidance is
all in agreement today that the low will continue to weaken as it
moves northward into the eastern gulf. Favored the GFS/EC going
into Thursday which shows the low opening up into a trough as it
reaches the Icy Bay area. A ridge will build in behind the
departing system with southeasterly flow over the Panhandle
weakening and shower activity diminishing through the day.
The most impactful weather over the next few days will be the
high winds expected over the far Southern Panhandle Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday morning. NUCAPS soundings around 21z
Tuesday show that destabilization of the atmosphere is already
taking place across the south. Model soundings through the evening
and overnight hours show enough of an unstable environment for
high winds of 50 to 55 kt around 925 mb to mix down to the
surface. The only limiting factor for high winds will be the less
than idea pressure gradient orientation between the ridge over
Canada and the approaching low. Prefer more of a SE gradient
rather than an E gradient. Still expect wind gusts to 60 mph
around Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of Wales Island this
evening through early Wednesday morning. Elsewhere across the
Panhandle expect Gales in Clarence Strait tonight and Small Craft
winds in the Southern and Central Inner Channels and around Cape
Spencer through tomorrow. Small craft winds also expected in the
coastal waters through Wednesday as the low moves northward. The
ridge will keep the southerly gradient tight through Thursday
morning so expect winds 15 to 20 kts through most of the inner
channels until then before diminishing late Thursday.
Aside from the wind, stratiform rain, associated with the passing
of the front, will switch to showers Tuesday night. With the low
offshore and southerly flow aloft, widespread showers will
continue through Wednesday night. Shower activity will begin to
diminish Thursday as flow becomes more southeasterly and a ridge
builds in across the region. Rainfall totals over the next day or
so will be around 1 to 2 inches with highest rainfall amounts
expected across the south and lesser amounts in the north.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/ Quieter
weather pattern in the works for the long range as the Pacific
storm track takes a jog to the south for the late week into the
weekend period. This is a result of the broad upper trough that is
over the state extending its influence further to the east. The
extension forces the primary jet stream to be aimed mostly at the
Washington and Oregon area through the period, and the panhandle
mostly receiving the northern fringes of any storms in the NE
Pacific.
Overall changes for the long range were mostly minor. One change
was a bump up of winds around the remaining gulf low on Thu.
Gulf waters winds increased to around 20 kt in the vicinity of the
low and northern inner channel winds increased to 15 to 20 kt.
Lynn Canal has the possibility of 25 kt winds on Thu as southerly
forecast pressure gradients reach around 2 mb between Juneau and
Skagway.
Guidance for the weekend continues to show a low in the NE Pacific
that does not track any farther north then 50 N latitude. The
southern half of the panhandle and the outer coast may get hit by
the northern fringes of the front from it Fri into Sun, but the
north is looking increasingly likely that it will remain dry at
least on Fri and Sat due to offshore flow. Kept pops at slight
chance or less for the north Fri into Sat while the south keeps
chance pops. Increasing chances of rain for the north into Sun and
early next week either from an easterly wave or from the front
over the south spreading north. Guidance has not settled on which
yet so confidence is poor other then the wetter trend for that
period.
Favored GFS/ECMWF for mid range guidance and WPC for the extended
range.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ027-028.
Strong Wind from 6 PM AKDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon for AKZ021.
Areal Flood Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033>035-043-051-052.
&&
CM/EAL
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Marine Exchange sensor at the Ketchikan Harbor measured peak gusts over 60 mph for 12 hours the evening of the 28th, including a peak gust of 79 mph at 102 am local time on the 29th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, April 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 879969.