Wisconsin, 2019

Cold in Wisconsin, January 26, 2019

January 26, 2019 · NWS MKX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A man was found frozen outside in Beloit. Hypothermia was a contributing factor in his death.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.

A man was found frozen outside in Beloit. Hypothermia was a contributing factor in his death. Bitterly cold air was occurring.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 11:21 PM CST, 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 11:21 PM CST, 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1121 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

.UPDATE...Patchy freezing fog is possible in low areas and closer
to river valleys. Otherwise, a bitterly cold night with
temperatures falling into the 10 to 25 below range. Lone Rock
continues to plummet and may get to 30 below. A little more
vigorous mid-level short wave and brief push of isentropic omega
may bring a period of -sn to parts of southern WI Saturday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected most areas
through Saturday morning. Patchy freezing fog will occur in a few low
areas and river valleys. A period of MVFR clouds may accompany
patchy -sn across parts of the area Saturday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 906 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019)

UPDATE...Decided to expand the Wind Chill Advisory several
counties to the south, to Milwaukee and Waukesha. Expecting winds
to remain between 3 and 6 knots overnight in most of these areas
as ridge axis remains just to the west. Lowered overnight
temperatures most locations, so a more extensive area of 20 to 28
below wind chills is expected overnight. Lone Rock's temperature
may get to -25 degrees below zero.

Waiting for new data, but there may be a better chance for a
period of -sn Saturday afternoon and early evening as a weak short
wave and brief period of isentropic omega on the 275 pressure
level moves through south central WI.

MARINE...Most bulk carriers are now in temporary port to wait
out the winter. However several tugs on the open waters reporting
winds of 15 to 20 knots. Will continue Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning for the overnight hours with lingering wind gusts causing
the heavy spray threat to continue into Sunday across the north.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 624 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019)

UPDATE...Mid-clouds and flurries will continue to thin and sag
south of WI through the early evening. Temperatures will plummet
this evening through the negative single digits into the double
digits. Will be keeping a close eye on temperatures. Fortunately,
high pressure building into the tri-state region will result in
light surface winds over at least the western half of the CWA
overnight. Enough lingering breezes in the east to cause Wind
Chills to flirt with -20 at times later tonight. Will need to re-
evaluate whether more counties in the east will be added to
ongoing Wind Chill Advisory this evening.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 336 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019)

SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Saturday night...Forecast Confidence is high.

Very light snow will continue east along the IL border through
the afternoon due to a weak low pressure area moving from IA to
the Ohio River Valley. Otherwise, clouds will decrease from late
afternoon into the evening while high pressure over the ern
Dakotas moves to nrn IL for Sat. With very light winds for tnt,
expect temps to fall several degrees colder than this morning's
lows for most locations. This yields low temps in the minus teens.
Went with a Wind Chill Advisory for Fond du Lac and Sheboygan
Counties where a persistent 3-7 mph wind will yield wind chill
temps of 20 to 25 below zero. Otherwise, brief periods of wind
chill temps -20F or colder could occur tnt over the remainder of
srn WI but overall winds speeds will remain very light or calm.

A weak low pressure area will then track from Lake Superior to
the Ontario and Quebec border for Sat-Sat nt. Swly winds and weak
warm advection is expected followed by a weak cold front late Sat
nt. Flurries are likely late Sat afternoon and evening ahead of
the cold front. Temps will warm to 5-10 degrees on Sat. Weak cold
advection and clearing for Sat nt will likely cause temps to fall
to single digits below zero by Sun AM.

LONG TERM...
Sunday and Monday...Forecast confidence Medium.

Northwest winds will become lighter on Sunday as an inverted trough
tied to high pressure across Ontario sinks into the region. The
arctic air mass will still be in place with 925mb temps around -18C
yielding surface highs temps in the single digits. Clouds will
increase west to east during the day ahead of the next system.
Southeast low level flow will contribute to strong warm air
advection Sunday evening as the surface low moves from the northern
plains toward southern WI/northern IL.

Several inches of snow is still likely across all of southern
Wisconsin starting Sunday evening and through the day Monday. There
is the potential for widespread amounts of 6 to 8 inches with
lake enhancement creating higher totals near Lake Michigan. The
NAM is consistent with its further north track and the ECMWF is
consistent a more southern track. The GFS has shifted north, and
it along some others, bring warmer surface temperatures to
southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon. Temperatures aloft are still
below freezing, so it looks like all snow, but a wetter snow
would cut down totals in far southern Wisconsin. Regardless,
Sunday night into Monday morning it will be fluffy snow with gusty
winds creating blowing and drifting snow. An upper jetlet is
reorganizing over the region which could provide good lift in
addition to the strong shortwave moving through on Monday. Temps
will cool Monday evening ands now may linger in the east early in
the evening before the trough axis swings through bringing and end
to the precip.

Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence High.

A deep closed low drops into the region on Tuesday night. Highs on
Tuesday through Thursday may not get above zero. Temps will bottom
out Tuesday night into early Thursday. Surface high pressure drops
into the plains bringing southern Wisconsin westerly winds. This
will create wind chill values down to -30 to -40 during this time.
NAEFS height and temperature values are in the bottom percentile.
This air mass moderates some after Friday, but still very cold
temperatures will stick around. A Wind chill advisory is likely
and a warning is possible.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...MVFR Cigs and vsbys with the very light snow
along the IL border for this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions
tonight into Sat afternoon with MVFR Cigs moving into wrn WI late
in the afternoon.

MARINE...A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning continues for the north
half of Lake MI until 6 PM Sunday, while it is in effect until
6 AM Saturday for the south half and nearshore waters. A Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning may be needed late Saturday night and
Sunday morning over the south half and nearshore waters.

Brisk westerly winds will develop over Lake Michigan Saturday
afternoon shifting to brisk northwesterly late Saturday night into
Sunday morning as low pressure tracks from Lake Superior to
Quebec.

Low pressure will then move from the Dakotas Sunday night
reaching far southern Lake MI for Monday evening, and southern
Ontario by Tuesday morning. Brisk easterly winds on Monday becoming
north to northwest for Monday night and Tuesday will make for
very high waves and possible gales. Northwesterly gales may
continue into Tuesday night. Heavy freezing spray will be likely.
Continued very cold air over Lake Michigan will also lead to ice
development around the lake.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for WIZ051-052-059-
     060-065-066.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for LMZ080-
     643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for LMZ261-
     362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

&&

Update...MBK
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Saturday Night through Friday...Marquardt
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 25, 11:16 PM CST, 44 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1116 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-270530-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1116 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Wind chills fall to between 15 and 25 below zero tonight, with
lowest values toward east central and parts of southeast
Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Cold and breezy conditions will continue through the weekend, with
overnight wind chills falling to between 10 and 20 below zero
Saturday and Sunday night.

Another winter storm is looking increasingly likely for the region
from Sunday evening through Monday evening. Significant snow
accumulation and blowing and drifting snow is possible during this
time period.

Extremely cold air will build into the area starting Monday night.
Wind chills are expected to be less than 35 degrees below zero at
times from Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ643>646-270530-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1116 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Heavy freezing spray will remain a concern through the coming
week, as very cold air moves through the region.

Strong onshore flow will result in high winds and waves Sunday
evening through Monday evening. A prolonged period of gusty west
to northwest winds is then expected from Tuesday through most of
the remainder of the week.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-270530-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1116 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The combination of gusty winds and very cold temperatures will
result in a threat for heavy freezing spray. A Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning is in effect through tonight for the south half of
Lake Michigan, and through Sunday for the north half of Lake
Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Winds may reach gale force Monday through Wednesday night.

Heavy freezing spray will remain a considerable concern through
the coming week, as very cold temperatures and gusty winds remain
in place across Lake Michigan.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Kavinsky

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Cold/Wind Chill, Rock

When
January 26, 12:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where
Rock forecast zone
Deaths
0 direct, 1 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
42.671, -89.072 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Dane County Medical Examiner's Office determined hypothermia was a contributing factor in the death of a man found frozen outside in Beloit.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Cold/Wind Chill, Rock2019-01-26MaleOutside/Open AreasIndirect

What these are

Cold/Wind Chill
Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Wisconsin in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, January 2019

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 824106.