Isolated severe thunderstorm associated with a weak surface trough produced damaging winds across portions of south central Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorm associated with a weak surface trough produced damaging winds across portions of south central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 3:11 PM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 411 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through Saturday as a trough of low pressure lingers over the local area. This results in hot and humid conditions with the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. A weakening cold front pushes into the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday... Latest surface analysis continues to show a trough of low pressure from the Carolina coastal Plain into south central/SE VA. Aloft, the flow is very light with a ridge of high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico, with a subtle trough from the OH Valley to the southern Appalachians. Will have 20-50% PoPs into this evening for the coast and portions of interior SE VA, with highest PoPs (~70%) focused primarily in the Piedmont (though will have likely PoPs through 22Z/6pm from Dorchester Co to the northern NEck). As expected, the lack of deep layer shear has kept severe wx to a minimum and limited to isolated pulse severe type storms. An isolated strong tstm with gusty winds can't be ruled out through 22Z but overall heavy rain/localized flooding from slow moving storms is the primary concern given PWats in excess of 2.00". Temperatures are not as hot as yesterday, but with high dew pts that are 70-75F inland and into the upper 70s along the coast, heat indices will continue from the upper 90s to 104F in areas that are not rain cooled through early evening. Will gradually see precip tapering off later this evening into the overnight hours. Will maintain highest PoPs west of I-95 through about 03z, then slight chc Pops overnight. Lows tonight around 70 F in the Piedmont and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Fairly similar pattern for Fri, though there will probably be a little less seabreeze initiation as low level flow will be a little more southerly. Warm/very humid with showers/tstms developing again during the late morning and early aftn hrs. CAMs generally focus highest PoPs E of I-95 inland from the coast and across the Mtns (and current thinking is that the highest PoPs stay W of the Piedmont across the Mtns until ~22Z). Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday... Active wx pattern to continue Fri night through Sunday as shortwaves moves through the westerly flow aloft with a very warm/moist low level airmass in place. Shortwave aloft moving across northern 1/2 of the area Fri night will tend to focus highest PoPs Fri evening over NW 1/2 of the area, with diminishing PoPs overnight. A weakening frontal boundary will move in from the NW later Sat aftn and be very slow to slide to the south during the day Sunday. Tough call at this stage as to how much activity develops during the morning hrs Sat, so for now will have PoPs ramping up from 20-40% in the morning, to 50-60% by later Sat aftn. Will keep at least 20-40% PoPs overnight Sat through Sun am and then will ramp back up to likely PoPs most areas again Sun aftn with the front over the area. Highs Sat upr 80s- lwr 90s (heat index upr 90s- lwr 100s). Lows Sat night mostly 70-75F and highs again Sunday mostly in the upper 80s to around 90F though if precip were to begin earlier in the day Sunday could be cooler than this. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Thursday... Unsettled weather pattern will extend into the first part of next week as a slow moving cold front continues southward across the region and the persistent upper ridging off the Southeast coast gets nudged to the east. Cooler mid 80s are forecast for Monday with clouds, showers, and storms lingering over the area. A weak wave of low pressure may move eastward along the front on Monday and allow for slightly higher thunderstorm chances. Thereafter, deeper moisture and associated chances for rain will get shunted to the south as high pressure builds in for the middle of the week. Temperatures will quickly rebound into the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday through Thursday. Overnight lows will continue to be mild with upper 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at area terminals currently, but already beginning to see widely scattered showers/tstms developing on the eastern shore and the northern Neck. Expecting the coverage of showers/tstms to be greatest from about 20Z through 02Z inland, with RIC having the highest chance so will have at least a TEMPO group there in the TAF. Elsewhere, SBY has a higher chance for a storm than ORF/PHF/ECG at least through about 21Z. Locally heavy rain and brief gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms, leading to brief IFR/MVFR visibilities. Coverage of shower/tstms wanes during the later evening/overnight period. OUTLOOK...Scattered convection is expected again Friday/Saturday/Sunday aftn/evening. Local flight restrictions will be possible. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EDT Thursday... VRB to SSE winds (aob 10 kt) expected through Fri as hi pres remains off the coast and a trough lingers inland. SSW increase a bit (mainly to 10-15 kt - wind probs currently not impressed for speeds too much higher than that) this weekend as a trough approaches the region from the W (Sat) and a weak cold front presses into the region from the NW (Sun). NE winds (potentially to 15-20 kt) will follow the the frontal passage and be persistent through the early part of next week. Sub-SCA conditions expected through at least the weekend. Seas generally 1-3 ft...possibly increasing to around 4 ft Mon. Waves on the bay mainly 1-2 ft through the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...JDM/LKB MARINE...ALB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 309 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092- 093-095>100-509>525-051100- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick- Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 309 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon and through the evening for July 4th. A few of the storms will have the potential to produce strong gusty winds, along with heavy rain and frequent lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Additional thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce gusty winds, along with heavy rain and frequent lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
251 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
MDZ021-041930-
Dorchester-
251 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DORCHESTER COUNTY...
At 249 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from Windyhill to near Vienna. The storms are nearly
stationary.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
these storms. In addition...Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Hurlock, Secretary, Vienna, East New Market, Brookview, Eldorado,
Bucktown and Linkwood.
Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects. In addition, expect frequent cloud to ground
lightning with these storms. Persons should stay inside until the
storms pass.
LAT...LON 3870 7581 3851 7577 3848 7582 3846 7582
3845 7584 3843 7582 3842 7585 3840 7585
3836 7597 3837 7601 3835 7601 3835 7602
3858 7605 3857 7603 3859 7599 3863 7598
3868 7594 3869 7590 3870 7590
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 243DEG 1KT 3867 7597 3843 7590
MRDSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
311 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
VAZ064-075-511-517-519-521-042000-
Western King and Queen-Western Hanover-Western King
William-Westmoreland-Western Essex-Caroline-
311 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KING AND
QUEEN...CAROLINE...NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND...NORTHWESTERN KING
WILLIAM...NORTHWESTERN HANOVER AND NORTHWESTERN ESSEX COUNTIES...
At 310 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Bowling
Green, moving north at 20 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with
these storms.
In addition...Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Champlain, Saint Stephens Church, Milford, Port Royal,
Beulahville, Dawn, Loretto, Leedstown, Mangohick, Fort A.p. Hill,
Millers Tavern, Ladysmith, Newtown, Kings Dominion, Chilesburg,
Beazley, Gum Tree, Biscoe and Nancy Wrights Corner.
If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.
LAT...LON 3784 7693 3780 7694 3782 7773 3800 7767
3800 7763 3825 7737 3825 7734 3822 7728
3825 7727 3825 7723 3823 7725 3819 7725
3820 7722 3817 7718 3815 7712 3816 7709
3814 7707 3826 7705 3827 7702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 180DEG 36KT 3804 7730
GINGRICHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
VAZ095>098-042015-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
336 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ...THE CITY OF
NORFOLK...THE NORTHWESTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE...THE CITY OF
PORTSMOUTH...THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF SUFFOLK AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH...
At 335 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Norfolk, or
over Downtown Norfolk, moving southwest at 10 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Virginia Beach, Virginia Wesleyan University, Old Dominion
University, Downtown Norfolk, Regent University, Ocean View,
Kempsville, Deep Creek, Downtown Portsmouth, Churchland, Norfolk
State University, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Norfolk
International, Ghent, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Cradock and Western
Branch.
If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3671 7632 3683 7645 3690 7641 3690 7645
3687 7646 3688 7649 3685 7648 3689 7651
3690 7648 3692 7648 3690 7653 3692 7650
3693 7650 3701 7632 3700 7630 3701 7630
3704 7625 3700 7626 3697 7617 3686 7608
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 047DEG 7KT 3688 7627
GINGRICHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
VAZ064-517-519-042045-
Western King and Queen-Western King William-Caroline-
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KING AND
QUEEN...CAROLINE AND NORTHWESTERN KING WILLIAM COUNTIES...
At 400 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Dawn, or 9
miles southeast of Milford, moving northwest at 10 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Milford, Port Royal, Beulahville, Ladysmith, Newtown,
Dawn, Mangohick, Fort A.p. Hill, Chilesburg, Golansville, Guinea,
Etna Mills, Penola, Nancy Wrights Corner, Cedar Fork, Ruther Glen,
Duane Fork, Cedon and Rappahannock Academy.
If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3824 7723 3823 7725 3819 7725 3819 7723
3820 7722 3817 7718 3809 7715 3808 7717
3806 7714 3790 7709 3775 7728 3785 7743
3789 7745 3788 7748 3799 7764 3814 7748
3824 7729 3822 7728 3825 7728 3825 7725
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 125DEG 9KT 3790 7729
GINGRICHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
404 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
VAZ048-061-062-068-069-510-042045-
Goochland-Powhatan-Fluvanna-Amelia-Cumberland-Eastern Louisa-
404 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISA...EASTERN CUMBERLAND...GOOCHLAND...NORTHWESTERN AMELIA...
POWHATAN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLUVANNA COUNTIES...
At 403 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Trenholm, or
8 miles northwest of Powhatan, moving north at 10 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with
these storms.
In addition...Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Powhatan, Goochland, Hadensville, Palmyra, Fork Union, Columbia, Gum
Spring, Tobaccoville, Trenholm, Morven, Lakeside Village, Macon,
Kents Store, Fife, Sunnyside, Ballsville, Duncan, Orchid, Maidens and
Three Square.
If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3791 7783 3743 7783 3739 7821 3764 7825
3769 7824 3769 7826 3787 7829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 180DEG 10KT 3762 7803
GINGRICHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
VAZ065-042045-
Mecklenburg-
417 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY...
At 417 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Boydton, or 12 miles southwest of South Hill, moving northeast at 10
mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
South Hill, La Crosse, Boydton, Beechwood, John H Kerr Dam, North
View, Forksville, Bracey, Keats, Eppes Fork, Baskerville, Wightman,
Palmer Springs and John H Kerr Reservoir.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3686 7836 3684 7835 3685 7833 3685 7831
3682 7828 3682 7826 3681 7824 3680 7817
3679 7813 3679 7811 3677 7803 3654 7815
3654 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 208DEG 8KT 3658 7826
RogersThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:29 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were downed throughout the eastern half of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 845380.