A weak cold front crossed the region on July 14th, with a warm and moist air mass out ahead of it. This led to the development of instability across the region and along with it a few showers and thunderstorms, a couple of which became severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A weak cold front crossed the region on July 14th, with a warm and moist air mass out ahead of it. This led to the development of instability across the region and along with it a few showers and thunderstorms, a couple of which became severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 1:50 PM EST, 2 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the region this afternoon. High pressure will follow the front tonight and Monday. A warm front is expected to lift north across the area Tuesday. The remnants of Barry will then affect the region Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak cold front is currently pushing into western Maryland and northern West Virginia. A couple of heavy showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm have recently develop over northern West Virginia and are moving toward the southeast. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered and are expected develop between the northern Potomac Highlands and the eastern Piedmont of Virginia. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop and move near the Washington D.C. area would not be until at least 5 pm or even later. This activity would also be isolated and not everyone would get this activity. By mid-evening, after sunset, any activity should weaken and dissipate. A lingering shower cannot be ruled out after midnight, mainly in the central Virginia Piedmont and Tidal Potomac. The weak cold front should stall across our southern zones overnight, despite the lack of rain activity. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The stalled front should linger over parts of our region Monday and Monday night. Most of our region will be in a drier airmass; however, the warmth will linger with plenty of sunshine and a mid-level high pressure center over us. Highs Monday will be near 90 with heat indice values in the middle to maybe upper 90s. Dry conditions expected Tuesday with high pressure in control, but an upper level disturbance ahead of the remnants of Barry could enhance shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon/evening. Heat index values could reach near 100 on some areas on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended forecast will be characterized by hot and humid conditions, interrupted ever so slightly by the remnants of Barry. Heights will begin falling Wednesday ahead of this system, though the best chance of any showers and storms will likely be toward the west. While there are still some timing/placement differences in regards to the evolution of the system, it appears the best moisture and lift will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday. With the system more or less a wave in the westerlies by this point, shear and thus severe risk will be low. High moisture content could result in some locally heavy rain though. Ridging will build Friday and Saturday. Convective chances will be lower as a result, but nonzero due to diurnal instability, terrain circulations, and a lee trough east of the mountains. The ridge may begin to flatten a bit later in the weekend, which may offer better opportunity for perturbations in the flow to aid in convective development. Temperatures will likely be lowest (relatively) Thursday due to extra clouds and precipitation. Wednesday and especially Friday/ Saturday will feature highs in the 90s and dew points in the 70s, so heat indices near or above 100 will be a concern. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected with light northwest winds and occasional higher gusts close to 20 knots. A weak front will move across our area and bring a few showers or thunderstorms to a few terminals, mainly near CHO this afternoon and again CHO with possibly MRB and IAD joining the helm on Tuesday. The remnants of Barry will provide the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. && .MARINE... Northwest winds will linger with a few random gusts near small craft advisory in parts of the Chesapeake Bay. A few showers, maybe a storm, could move across the waters later this afternoon into Monday as a boundary moves into our area. However expecting winds to remain light during this time and into Tuesday but with possible showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. The remnants of Barry will cross the area late Wednesday into Thursday. As the system will be more of an open wave, am not expecting a strong gradient, but marginal SCA conditions in southwest flow are possible. There will also be an increased risk for thunderstorms during this time. Increased westerly flow may continue on Friday in the wake of the system. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...KLW SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/KLW MARINE...ADS/KLW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-150930- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 519 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-150930- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 519 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:50 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down in the 11000 block of Fort Turkey Trail. A tree was also blown down along Woodlands Church Road near Wengers Mill Road.
Large trees were blown down near the intersection of Three Notched Road and Old Three Notched Road. A tree was blown down onto power lines on Dry Bridge Road. Another tree was blown down near the intersection of Ivy Road and Morgantown Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 844063, 844064.