An approaching low pressure system from the west and unstable atmosphere combined over Montana to produce severe thunderstorms which eventually clustered together and moved through eastern Montana with very strong and damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.
An approaching low pressure system from the west and unstable atmosphere combined over Montana to produce severe thunderstorms which eventually clustered together and moved through eastern Montana with very strong and damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 4:52 PM MST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 552 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 .DISCUSSION... 600PM UPDATE: Changes to the forecast were focused on making hourly data sets out to 24 hours. Have also updated PoPs to for the next 3 to 6 hours for thunderstorms that are rapidly moving into the CWA. GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE: Forecast for this afternoon remains relatively similar to the morning iteration. Storms are beginning to fire over southwestern portions of the region and will slowly increase in both intensity and number as the afternoon and evening carries on. Severe weather is still expected for many locations this evening and tonight, with hail and severe winds as the main threats. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast was only nudged some with more recent model solutions. Bigelbach PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION: The synoptic scale weather pattern features a persistent features a strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the central Rockies and central plains, while a trough of low pressure aloft from the northwestern US states and northern Rockies. This results in a steady westerly or southwesterly flow, steering multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms across northeast Montana. The storm prediction center has our CWA outlined for a slight chance for severe thunderstorms today, and our southern zones for Monday. While it may be sometimes advisable to trust a model blend and ensembles for the chances of precipitation, that seems to be a bit more difficult to do today, as there still exists some significant model disagreement for the placement of the expected thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The NAM keeps most of the precipitation near and south of Highway 200. The HRRR keeps it near and south of the Missouri River. The CMCnh and GFS spreads the storms out quite a bit more, with a significant storm moving through Phillips County. The EC is virtually quiet and mostly dry. Felt it was best to err on the side of caution and broadbrush some of this precipitation chances in the forecast. Next shift might be able to be more specific if better consensus emerges in the models later today. Overall, given the threat of severe thunderstorms today, I tried to include the gust front as it moves through the CWA from west to east. A number of the hourly wind models consistently pick up some version of this gust front, similar to yesterday's. Felt it was best to try and incorporate that into the forecast grids for this afternoon and evening. Late tonight, storm will dissipate away toward the east and southeast. Monday, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected, but better model agreement shows most of that activity remaining near and south of Highway 200. By Tuesday morning showers look to become a bit more widespread before the afternoon heat kicks in. Tuesday evening, the next round of storms arrives, but seems to be limited more to far southern and southeastern portions of our CWA. For the later half of the week, a calmer and drier weather pattern will ease most of the storms away, temporarily. BMickelson && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CAT: VFR-MVFR DISCUSSION: More showers and thunderstorms will push through the region this evening and tonight. This could cause operations impacts to airfields as the storms pass over. Ceilings will remain mostly at VFR levels, though dips into MVFR visibility levels will be likely under the strongest storms. WIND: Typically 5-15 kt over the next day or two and from the southwest to northwest. Underneath active thunderstorms, variable winds with gusts of anywhere from 20-40 kts may be possible this evening. Bigelbach/GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && weather.gov/glasgow
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
142 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019
MTZ021-142045-
Petroleum MT-
142 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 141 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grass Range, or 16 miles west of Winnett, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Small hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tiegen and Valentine.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4731 10845 4731 10834 4732 10833 4732 10831
4740 10831 4716 10797 4693 10861 4710 10861
4710 10873
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 232DEG 21KT 4700 10869
BigelbachSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
228 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019
MTZ021-022-142130-
Petroleum MT-Garfield MT-
228 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 228 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winnett, moving east at 30 mph.
Small hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Mosby and Cat Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4685 10789 4696 10825 4711 10824 4715 10750
4685 10757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 273DEG 24KT 4702 10828
BigelbachSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Glasgow MT 322 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 MTZ022-142200- Garfield MT- 322 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... At 321 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sand Springs, or 29 miles southwest of Jordan, moving east at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Sand Springs and Edwards. LAT...LON 4699 10753 4714 10753 4729 10673 4694 10672 TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 265DEG 33KT 4708 10741 Bigelbach
The Billings radar (KBLX), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:02 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter measured a 63 mph wind gust.
Trained spotter reported wind damage in the town of Winnett, including power lines and trees blown down, and a roof ripped off a house. Time estimated by radar.
A 78 mph wind gust was measured at the Winnett Handar site (GGWWT).
A 74 mph wind gust was measured at the Lufborough Hill MT-200 DOT site (MTLUF).
A 68 mph wind gust was measured at the South Sawmill Creek RAWS site (SSMM8).
A 63 mph wind gust was measured at the King Coulee RAWS site (KIGM8).
A 75 mph wind gust was measured at the Saint Marie Mesonet MARCO site (07MT).
Trained spotter reported 58 mph wind gusts.
A 68 mph wind gust was measured at the Lindsay Divide MT-200 DOT site (MTLND).
A 62 mph wind gust was measured at the the Glendive Airport ASOS (KGDV).
A 75 mph wind gust was measured at the Beaver Hill I-94 DOT site (MTBVR).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 840343, 840342, 840345, 840346, 840348, 840352, 840355, 840358, 840361, 840362, 840364.