A large complex of thunderstorms entered from the Ohio Valley into southwest and southern Virginia by the early to mid-afternoon. High instability in a very moist air mass, as well as residual outflow boundaries from early morning convection, allowed for numerous severe thunderstorms to develop, which produced damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A large complex of thunderstorms entered from the Ohio Valley into southwest and southern Virginia by the early to mid-afternoon. High instability in a very moist air mass, as well as residual outflow boundaries from early morning convection, allowed for numerous severe thunderstorms to develop, which produced damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 11:31 AM EST, 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1231 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest late this afternoon preceded by bands of strong to severe thunderstorms into this evening. The front should slide through the region late tonight and Wednesday, and to the southeast by Thursday, trending drier for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday... Weakening complex of convection continues to work across northern sections with residual mid level wave from last night. Expect these showers to continue heading east mainly north of Highway 460 with perhaps a trailing band back to the southwest that will slide into southwest sections of the area over the next hour or two. This well in advance of another upstream area of deeper convection across Kentucky associated with another wave along the actual cold front in the Midwest. This will result in a bit more uncertain scenario for severe storms in the wake of the first complex this morning as this feature will spread clouds across the north/east while perhaps leaving the south/southwest with more sunshine/heating. However appears may see either the tail of the current shower cluster strengthen through early afternoon across the southwest or have upstream coverage unzip east across the south where near the old outflow and where guidance indicates better instability later. This also likely aided by differential heating but perhaps offset by increasing westerly flow in wake of the initial impulse that will eventually back southwest across the south ahead of the next wave. Latest HREF remains quite aggressive in having widespread coverage with two areas of deeper convection, while the HRRR tends to shunt better coverage along the NC/VA border and into the east later in the day. This seems most likely with perhaps less coverage late morning into mid afternoon before better redevelopment occurs which may not happen until late. Thus have adjusted pops to reflect exodus of the showers to the north by midday, followed by a short lull and then higher pops south/east mid/late afternoon. Highs tricky espcly north in just how much heating will occur and over the south in where the edge of the debris cloud shield will stall or mix out. Still expect enough downslope and afternoon heating to support around 90 south while appears 80s elsewhere except possibly remaining in the 70s far north/northwest. Previous discussion as of 800 AM EDT Tuesday... Anticipating an active day. Vigorous upstream short wave has resulted in an MCS over the Ohio Valley. This feature is forecast to move downstream and through the forecast area today. Outflow is expected to reach the WV/VA border before noon, then progress southeast and through the forecast area this afternoon. Think ongoing showers ahead of this system will do little to stabilize the airmass. A considerable amount of low level pooling of dewpoints has already taken place with readings in the lower to mid 70s. This suggest it will not take much heating to increase the CAPE, so even if the considerable cloud cover persists, CAPE values should easily climb into the 1000-2000 j/kg range, and MLCAPE may eclipse 2500 j/kg across the Piedmont where there is greater opportunity for sunshine. There are a multitude of concerns this afternoon. Strong to severe storms are forecast, but I think we may be dealing with multifaceted storm threats. In addition to damaging wind, there is also the potential for supercells and isolated tornadoes, and I would not rule out an isolated flash flood threat as well (confidence in the FF threat the lowest of the three). Forecast wind profiles suggest potential for both organized linear deep convection in addition to supercells. 0-3km SRH values of close to 200 m2/s2 are forecast in addition to the potential for the south end the outflow boundary to curve back to the west along its southern periphery, providing an additional focus for boundary following storms. Timing of the strongest activity, in addition to the greatest coverage, favors the afternoon, although a shower is possible at just about any time during the day (including the morning) due to the persistent isentropic lift ahead of the short wave. Hourly temperature forecast throughout the day at any give time will be a challenge. Expectation is for highs to reach well into the 80s and possibly lower 90s if there is enough solar insolation. Attm think best chance for temperatures to reach the lower 90s will be across the NC Piedmont, but may fall shy of 90 in VA where more cloud cover exists and under 85 across WV and the VA/NC highlands. For tonight, lingering showers may exist along a cold front that is forecast to sink southeast and through the forecast area. (a feature that lags today's thunderstorm outflow driven deep convection). Depending on how the daytime prefrontal deep convection crosses the forecast area, there may be some lingering thunderstorm activity over eastern TN and into western NC where the daytime outflow, which crosses the Virginias, trails back to the west toward the actual surface cold front. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday... The main low pressure center will be off the New England coast Wednesday morning with cold front trailing southwest into the region. Waves of low pressure will develop and ride along the frontal boundary Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in unsettled weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Eastern portions of the forecast area will have the best chance for convection Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. SPC Day Two Convective outlook keep our area in general thunderstorms. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. Scattered convection Wednesday evening will taper off Wednesday night. Areas of fog will develop overnight into Thursday morning. Low temperatures Wednesday night will vary from the upper 50s in the mountains to near 70 degrees in the piedmont. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will decrease on Thursday as high pressure builds eastward from the Ohio River Valley. Isolated to scattered storms may be possible Thursday afternoon mainly in the east. High temperatures Thursday will be slightly cooler than Wednesday with readings from mid 70s in the west to the upper 80s in the east. An isolated shower id possible in the east Thursday night, however most locations will remain dry. Low temperatures Thursday night will generally be from the upper 50s in the west to the upper 60s in the east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The upper level pattern flattens and becomes more zonal during Friday. Although high pressure crosses over the Mid Atlantic by Saturday, the models still hint at diurnal convection popping up during the afternoon along and east of the Blue Ridge. Thus, the previous forecast portraying a low chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday was maintained. Upper level ridging will ensue overhead later this weekend as a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this trough should approach the Appalachian Mountains by Sunday afternoon and pass overhead during Monday, which will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1225 PM EDT Tuesday... Tail of the residual outflow from complex that has passed to the east and weakened will continue to settle south across southern/southwest sections this afternoon. Added bands/clusters of showers/storms will likely develop along this boundary and intensify as they push east/southeast toward northern NC and Southside VA through late in the day. These storms will be capable of producing periods of IFR or worse including strong winds espcly from south of KBLF to KDAN and points south into early this evening. More uncertainty exists north of this outflow where have seen things contaminated a bit due to clouds/showers. Still appears more showers/storms possible elsewhere espcly mountains near KBLF, but overall mainly isolated to widely scattered given less instability. Thus will keep either a vicinity or short TEMPO group in locations over the north with worst conditions around KDAN including cigs/vsbys and winds in and near tsra. Expecting convection to settle to the south this evening leaving considerable cloudiness between the exiting storms and the upstream cold front that will only sag toward the region late tonight. Appears may still see some showers western mountains overnight with more spotty nature elsewhere where fog/stratus may fill in overnight. Latest guidance supports more LIFR/IFR nature cigs/vsbys west espcly KBLF per upslope flow as well as fog/stratus in the valleys including spots in the east pending earlier shower coverage. Fog and stratus may linger in spots through mid or late morning espcly KBLF with improving conditions to VFR elsewhere. The cold front should edge through the region during Wednesday with additional sub-VFR possible in showers through Wednesday evening. However appears may see enough downsloping drying to support less showers and periods of VFR east of the Blue Ridge in the afternoon. Winds mainly west to southwest at 5-15 kts including higher gusts espcly near storms, becoming light overnight, then west to northwest around 10 kts on Wednesday. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Some improvement in flying conditions likely on Thursday as the front pushes to the east of the area but still appears that periods of MVFR could occur Thursday afternoon where residual showers are possible. Weak high pressure building in behind the front should finally bring more in the way of VFR Friday into Saturday. Otrw fog again possible during the late night/early morning hours for KBCB and KLWB from Wednesday night into early Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...JH/PM NEAR TERM...JH/PM SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JH/PM
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1014 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 VAZ007-009>014-017-018-022-023-033>035-WVZ042-141415- Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig- Roanoke-Botetourt-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer- 1014 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through early this evening. An isolated tornado is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. VAZ019-020-024-WVZ043-044-507-508-141415- Alleghany VA-Bath-Rockbridge-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- 1014 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-043>047-058-059-141415- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Patrick-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 1014 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening. Isolated tornadoes are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019
VAZ009-010-012-015-131745-
Grayson-Bland-Wythe-Smyth-
1257 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SMYTH, FAR SOUTHWEST
BLAND AND WESTERN WYTHE COUNTIES...
At 1256 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Marion
Wytheville, moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Wytheville...
Marion...
Rural Retreat...
Ceres...
and Mount Rogers National Recreation Area.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3702 8143 3702 8098 3681 8103 3681 8104
3679 8103 3673 8105 3681 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 283DEG 22KT 3692 8137
LocontoThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:11 UTC.
14 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several tree limbs were blown down by severe thunderstorm winds and were blocking the road near the intersection of Cedar Springs Road and Rural Retreat Road. Another tree was blown down on Ridge Avenue.
One tree blown down by severe thunderstorm winds on Rakestown Road.
One tree blown down by severe thunderstorm winds at the intersection of Fincastle Road and Austinville Road.
A tree was blown down by severe thunderstorm winds on Blue Ridge Yacht Club Road.
A few trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts along Dyers Store Road in the Figsboro area of Henry County.
A large tree was blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts and was blocking part of Dyers Store Road.
One tree was blown down by severe thunderstorm winds near State Route 40.
Several trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm winds just east of Gretna. One tree fell on a vehicle and another fell on power lines.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed a few power lines.
A tree was blown down on power lines by severe thunderstorm winds. The tree subsequently caught on fire.
One tree blew down onto power lines by severe thunderstorm winds near Moorefield Store Road.
Multiple trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm winds at the intersection of U.S. 360 and Route 119.
One large tree was blown down by severe thunderstorm winds on Pointer Road in southwest Halifax County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848574, 848576, 848577, 848578, 848579, 848585, 848583, 848588, 848591, 848596, 848594, 848712, 848599, 848601.