Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 13, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

The southern edge of the westerlies will be situated across the
central plains through Saturday. A thermal boundary, with ample
moisture and upslope flow on the cool side will be located near
I-70. Given the westerly flow across the Rockies, a surface trough
will extend south from the low across the southern high plains.
By Sunday, upper level ridging will amplify again across the
central high plains, with the westerlies lifting north into the
northern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Clusters of thunderstorms are already in progress across the high
plains. With the favorable west-northwesterly mid to high level
flow regime, these storms should propagate southeastward across
western and central Kansas tonight. The exact paths of the storm
clusters are in question; but it appears that much of the area
will receive rainfall. The vertical wind shear is weaker across
western Kansas compared to farther north so that the storms will
weaken as they move southeastward. Damaging winds should be the
main threat by the time the storms get this far south; but some
hail is likely too this evening before evolving into a larger
cluster with heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Other clusters of thunderstorms are possible Thursday through
Saturday evenings given that the southern edge of the westerlies
will still be located across the central plains. However,
the flow is progged to be more westerly than northwesterly so that
the best chance of thunderstorms will shift to the north closer
to I-70. The aforementioned upper level ridge should suppress
rainfall from Sunday into early and mid next week, with any
thunderstorms over western Kansas being isolated. In general,
temperatures will continue to be warmer along the Oklahoma state
line and cooler near I-70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

An ongoing line of storms moving from northwest Kansas will come
into southwest Kansas between 00Z-06Z. The line of storms will
affect mainly HYS, GCK, and DDC with the main threat of the storms
being wind gusts 50-60 kts and brief heavy rain which will reduce
the surface visibilities. These storms should be quick moving and
after 06Z VFR conditions should prevail through the rest of the
TAF time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  87  65  95 /  40  20  50  10
GCK  62  85  62  95 /  70  20  50  10
EHA  63  88  63  94 /  70  20  40  10
LBL  63  89  64  94 /  50  20  40  10
HYS  63  83  65  90 /  40  30  60  20
P28  66  88  66  92 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
442 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140945-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
442 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 /342 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across west
central and southwest Kansas late this afternoon into this
evening, then potentially further east into portions of central
Kansas overnight. The main hazards will be 1 to 2 inch size hail
and damaging winds 60 to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. Additionally, heavy rainfall may be associated with the
strongest storms increasing the potential for localized flooding,
including ponding on roads and highways. Heavy rainfall may also
rapidly reduce visibility.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday and Thursday, some
potentially severe capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds.

Warmer temperatures are expected to return by the end of the week
with highs reaching up into the 90s. Combined with higher relative
humidity, this may create excessive heat conditions.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this
evening across much of west central and southwest Kansas.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

KSZ084-132345-
Morton KS-
601 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORTON COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 601 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Elkhart, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart.

LAT...LON 3720 10204 3699 10182 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 292DEG 18KT 3705 10203

UMSCHEID