Severe drought conditions expanded north along Interstate 35 and Interstate 45 to near the Interstate 20 corridor during the last week of September 2019.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions expanded north along Interstate 35 and Interstate 45 to near the Interstate 20 corridor during the last week of September 2019.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 23, 10:55 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 .AVIATION... /06z TAFs/ A decaying convective complex is moving towards North Texas as of 05z, and remains on a downward trend. This convection is not expected to directly impact any of the TAF sites overnight. VFR conditions should prevail, with the exception of perhaps some brief cigs at either ACT or DAL around 2 kft shortly after daybreak. Winds have come back to the east and southeast following this evening's convection, and they'll remain southeasterly through the period. Tuesday afternoon, renewed convective development is expected across parts of North Texas. Coverage and timing should be similar to today, and VCTS will suffice for Metroplex airports during the late afternoon and evening. While south winds will prevail through this time, convective outflows may interrupt wind directions at times. Waco should remain rain-free through the period. -Stalley && .UPDATE... /Issued 917 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/ Have updated to lower PoPs this evening, but later tonight I do expect the convection to our west to make slow progress east and northeast into the northwestern part of the CWA. So PoPs will increase again after midnight in this area. By sunrise expect scattered convection across the northwest and northern zones along an old decaying 500 mb shear axis that has been draped across this area for a couple days now. Convection will be elevated and thus no severe weather potential, but still some brief heavy rainfall, lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible. TR.92 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/ /Tuesday Night onward/ Hot with daily chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the name of the game through the extended portion of the forecast. It looks to be at least another 10 days or so before we could see our first fall cold front. Upper-level ridging looks to remain in place through the next 7+ days, but with the center of the ridge displaced to our east, and with deep southerly flow, we will see some rain chances. The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely come Friday and through the weekend. An upper-level trough over the West Coast will cut off from the jet stream during the next couple of days. The resultant upper-level low will remain over the Gulf of California for a couple days, but will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and across Oklahoma into the weekend. Differential cyclonic vorticity advection associated with this upper-level low will act to enhance lift and therefore rain chances over the weekend. Given the lack of any well-defined surface boundaries and weak wind shear, thunderstorms will remain disorganized. A few lucky individuals may see some rain with these thunderstorms, but for many of us, we will stare longly at distant thunderstorm updrafts wondering why we have missed out on the rain once again. Heading into next week, the upper-level ridge over the Southeast will reestablish itself. Deep southerly flow will continue to provide enough moisture and heating that we will maintain daily chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest shower/thunderstorm chances next week will be in Central Texas where the deepest moisture, and perhaps some seabreeze enhancement, will exist. The deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF, as well as some of the European ensemble members seem to hint at a cold front towards the end of the first week of October (around October 3-5). There has not been much run to run consistency however, and the folks at CPC don't really seem to be buying into it yet in their extended range outlooks. As anyone who follows North Texas weather knows, there have been quite a few "false alarm" model cold fronts through September, and this could be another. Having said that, it is noteworthy that the ECMWF and GFS are both fairly aggressive. I'm not getting my hopes up yet, but we shall see... 37 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/ /Now through Tuesday/ Early afternoon surface analysis features weak southerly flow with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region to the lower 80s along the Red River. There is some weak surface convergence noted to the northwest of the Metroplex and to the northeast, but flow is generally weak. We remain under the influence of a fairly stout subtropical ridge with weak flow through 300 mb, but the stronger subsidence associated with the ridge remains to our east and southeast. With ample low level moisture in place, there will continue to be chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Water vapor and visible satellite imagery shows a band of mid level moisture and clouds streaming in across West Texas. This is associated with an upper trough which is digging across the southwest U.S. this afternoon. There appears to be some ascent spreading across West Texas with this feature given an increase in vertical cloud growth and some convection firing across that part of the state. While any appreciable forcing should stay off to our northwest through this evening, we'll still have a chance for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the region over the next 24 hours. Latest HRRR soundings indicate that subtle capping is almost gone as far south as the Metroplex. With weak low level convergence ongoing north of I-20 to the Red River and continued heating, we should see an uptick in scattered thunderstorm coverage through the evening hours, mainly north and northwest of the Metroplex. This is reflected in the visible satellite imagery which shows a more robust cumulus field across the northwest half of the CWA. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, we'll have 30-50% PoPs generally along and north of the I-20 corridor. Coverage of thunderstorms may be a little farther south than the last few days and may impact parts of the Metroplex. The strongest storms today could produce some gusty winds, but locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be the main threats. Any showers and storms should diminish in coverage later this evening with loss of heating, although a moist airmass will remain in place so any localized areas of convergence could result in additional showers and storms. On Tuesday, the upper trough to the west should be over southern Arizona. While this main feature will be too far west to have significant impacts on our weather, it will help keep stronger ridging off to our east. A weak 500-300 mb upper trough will drift north along the Texas coast and may provide at least some weak ascent through the afternoon across North Texas. We'll still keep our focused area of surface convergence near the Red River where PWs will remain near or slightly above 2". PoPs again will be highest north of I-20 toward the Red River. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 91 76 94 75 / 30 30 20 10 0 Waco 73 94 73 95 73 / 10 10 0 5 0 Paris 71 87 71 87 70 / 40 50 20 20 5 Denton 73 90 74 93 73 / 30 40 20 20 0 McKinney 73 90 74 93 73 / 30 40 20 20 0 Dallas 75 92 76 94 76 / 30 30 20 10 0 Terrell 73 92 74 94 73 / 20 20 10 5 0 Corsicana 73 92 72 93 72 / 10 10 0 5 0 Temple 73 94 72 93 71 / 10 10 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 71 91 72 93 71 / 40 40 20 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 26/92
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a risk of thunderstorms near and north of I-20 today and tonight. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but the strongest storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday mainly near and north of I- 20. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat with the strongest storms. Low storm chances will continue across parts of North and Central Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. Low storm chances are forecast for a majority of North and Central Texas Friday through Sunday. Most areas will not see rainfall, but those that do could see brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions developed across Falls County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across McLennan County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across Limestone County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across Hill County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across Dallas County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across the eastern third of Johnson County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across the western half of Ellis County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across the southwestern half of Navarro County during the last week of September 2019.
Severe drought conditions developed across the western third of Leon County during the last week of September 2019.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 856207, 856208, 856209, 856210, 856211, 856212, 856213, 856214, 856215.