A stalled front was located across the Mid-South during the morning hours of December 16th. Heavy rain occurred along and north of the front resulting in some flash flooding near the Tennessee River.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A stalled front was located across the Mid-South during the morning hours of December 16th. Heavy rain occurred along and north of the front resulting in some flash flooding near the Tennessee River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 11:39 AM CST, 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1139 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 .UPDATE... See the 18z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 944 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ UPDATE... At mid morning, the surface front extended from south of Clarksdale to around Pickwick. Southerly flow up and over the surface boundary is helping sustain showers/storms north of the boundary. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with stronger/training storms. Fairly low freezing level and especially -20 deg C level, so small hail can also be expected. Early 12Z guidance continues the general forecast trend for the afternoon and evening. Surface-based instability still appears most likely during the afternoon/early evening over NE MS. Weak upper system and surface low along the boundary should provide lift and focus for storms. Vertical wind shear will support storm organization and at least mid-level rotation. Farther north, lift and instability over the surface front will remain favorable for elevated storms. GW PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ DISCUSSION... Currently...A quasi-stationary front is draped across the Mid- South, just south of I-40. Weak low pressure moving along the front overnight, along with strong low level flow across that boundary, has resulted in a band of heavy rainfall of up to 1.5 inches just north of I-40. As the weak low tracks into middle TN, along with the stronger low level flow, the band has been slowly weakening. There is quite a contrast across the front with temps in the mid 30s over extreme NE AR and the MO Bootheel to the mid 60s over Monroe County MS. Today...An upper level trough will push toward the region with deep, moist southwesterly flow across the Mid-South. Surface low pressure developing near the ARKLATEX will begin to move NE along the stalled frontal boundary across the Mid-South. In the warm sector southerly winds will continue to pull moist and relatively unstable air north. Expect showers and elevated thunderstorms to expand this morning as the surface low approaches and low level flow strengthens across the stalled front once again. Could see some locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially where heavy rain fell overnight. Further southwest, as the cold front starts pushing across the Lower MS Valley, expect more thunderstorms to develop and intensify while spreading NE to parts of the Mid-South during the afternoon. In the warm sector, south of the stalled front, severe parameters point toward a few severe storms, though the better threat remains south of the region. Strong deep layer shear will be in place with at least some instability. SBCAPE values will climb to between 500-1000 J/KG and 0-1km helicity values will top 200 m2/s2 this afternoon across NE MS indicating favorable low level veering. Best areas of updraft helicity remain south though some HREF members have robust values across parts of NE MS. Expect clusters and lines of convection to push NE along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. Any storms that can remain semi- discrete pose the greater threat. The main threat will be damaging wind. A tornado is possible across NE MS and with some hail in stronger storms. Severe chances start ramping up early this afternoon and continue until the front exits around 01-02z. Tonight...Severe weather chance diminish in the early evening and rain chances taper off quickly from west to east. Precip will end before any kind of changeover can occur. Gusty NW winds will bring in much colder air by morning with lows from about 30 in NE AR to upper 30s in NE MS. Tuesday through Wednesday night...Cold with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Gusty NW winds will add an extra chill on Tuesday. Thursday through Sunday...Slightly milder by Thursday as high pressure shifts east. A fast moving system may bring a little rain to the region Friday into early Saturday. Upper level high pressure build in for Sunday into early next week with temps climbing above normal. SJM && .AVIATION... /18z TAFs/ A stationary front located near a CKM-UOX-PVE line will begin to move east this afternoon. Widespread rain/showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue today. Storms north of this front will remain elevated while surface based storms to its south may contain gusty winds. Rain/thunderstorms are expected to end from west to east between 00-06z with generally dry weather thereafter. IFR conditions will persist through the night in many areas, especially east of the MS River with improving conditions by 15z. Winds will shift from the north/northwest behind the cold front and may be gusty at times. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 314 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171115- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 314 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this evening along and south of a line from Helena-West Helena, Arkansas to Decaturville, Tennessee. The greatest risk for severe weather will be across north-central and northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds will be the main threat. A tornado is possible along with large hail. In addition, locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding, mainly across West Tennessee. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into early this evening. SJM
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:10 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous roads in Camden were flooded due to heavy rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 870447.