Hail in South Dakota, May 26, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
205 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

Water vapor shows upper low over CA with southwest flow aloft
extending into the northern plains. Surface low is developing over
CO/NM. Breezy south/southeast winds extend across much of the
cwfa, with easterly winds to the north of a weak surface front
extending across northwest SD through southeast MT.
Radar/Satellite pics show cap is breaking with MLCAPE in the
1000-1500J/kg range early this afternoon.

Cap will continue to quickly erode this afternoon with MLCAPE
rising up to 2500J/kg. Effective bulk shear in the 30-50kt range
sufficient for supercells. As potent lead short wave ejects
northeast into the area later this afternoon, expect storms to
quickly develop and push east/northeast across the area this
evening. Right moving supercells should move slower and could
produce heavy rainfall. Storms should end this evening across the
western 2/3rds of zones, but linger in the east through late
tonight.

Upper low will migrate slowly northeast from the desert southwest
Monday into the central Rockies Monday night, and into western NE
Tuesday. There will likely be a break in heavy precip for much of
the day on Monday behind tonight's activity, but low clouds/fog
and showers should continue under easterly upslope flow. Precip
will begin to pick up again in the southwest zones later Monday,
then spread eastward across the rest of the area Monday night and
Tuesday. Upper low should linger over NE on Tuesday before finally
moving out Wednesday, which is a slower trend in the models. This
will keep heavier precip around a little longer so have extended
the Flood Watch for western SD through Tuesday night. Still
looking for widespread 1-2" total rainfall with locally higher
amounts.

Drier and warmer conditions expected for the end of the week,
although small chances for precip remain in the forecast with
mainly zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1145 AM MDT Sun May 26 2019

The next round of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and
overnight, some which could be severe. Thunderstorms will shift
eastward overnight. Then MVFR/IFR conditions in fog will develop
by early Monday morning, especially around the Black Hills area,
as more widespread shower activity moves into the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

Heavy rain will move into the region beginning tonight and
continue through Tuesday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" look
likely, with some amounts over 2" especially south of I-90. Flood
Watch remains in effect for northeast Wyoming and much of western
South Dakota.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through late
     Tuesday night for SDZ012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

WY...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
414 AM MDT Sun May 26 2019

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-271015-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
414 AM MDT Sun May 26 2019 /514 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western South Dakota and
northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flooding continues across portions of the western South Dakota
plains. See the latest Flood Warnings and Statements for details.

Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, some of
which will be strong to severe. Heavy rain from these
thunderstorms could worsen flooding; see the latest Flood Watch
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will continue into Monday morning. During somewhat
of a break in precipitation during the day, fog will develop
across some areas, especially around the Black Hills. Monday
evening, chances for thunderstorms will increase again, with the
potential for some strong storms with heavy rain.

Rain will persist into Tuesday. By Tuesday night, 1 to 2 inches of
total precipitation will be possible. See the latest Flood Watch
for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
417 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

WYZ056-057-262300-
Wyoming Black Hills WY-Western Crook WY-
417 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CROOK COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Alzada, or 34 miles north of Sundance, moving
north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Crook
County.

LAT...LON 4500 10437 4482 10436 4480 10458 4500 10466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 174DEG 14KT 4489 10450

Eagan

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