The combination of abundant moisture and local effects lead to the development of heavy showers across Carolina.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
The combination of abundant moisture and local effects lead to the development of heavy showers across Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 10, 11:30 AM AST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1130 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 .UPDATE... Although dry air has filtered at mid-levels and PW is less than the previous days, around 1.65 inches, another round of thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected across the interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Also, showers are expected to develop across the western sections and downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as downwind from el Yunque into the San Juan Metro-Area. Given that the soils are saturated from previous rains, additional downpours will result in urban and small stream flooding as well as rapid river rises and mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Exercise cautious! && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast periods. However, SHRA/TSRA are expected each afternoon across the interior and western sections. This activity is expected near or over TJMZ/TJSJ/TJBQ btwn 10/18-22z. Therefore, TEMPO MVFR conditions will be possible. Winds from the E-ESE at 5 to 15 knots with higher wind gusts and sea breeze variations, becoming light and variable after 10/23z. && .MARINE... A northeasterly swell continues across the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages. Seas will range between 3 and 5 feet in the open sea, to 4 feet or less across protected waters. Winds will continue at 15 knots or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019/ SYNOPSIS... The TUTT will pull away from the region today, while the trend of somewhat drier air pushing into the area continues. Local effects and daytime heating have the potential still, though, to initiate convection and showers, especially in western and interior portions of Puerto Rico. These showers still have the potential to cause flooding conditions considering recent precipitation. This drying trend is anticipated to persist into midweek, with similar conditions likely during that time period as well. SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday... Moderate shower activity has continued in the offshore Atlantic through much of the nighttime, associated with the upper tropospheric trough now moving to the NE. Other minor isolated showers are occurring south and east of Puerto Rico, and this is expected to continue into the later morning hours. Conditions today are generally less favorable for intense shower activity, given the lack of upper level support. Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected, but not like what occurred yesterday. Drier midlevel tropospheric air will also suppress convection somewhat. High resolution model guidance suggests the center of activity for this afternoon will be in western Puerto Rico, and extending to the NW portion of the island. Given recent precipitation and subsequent saturated soils and high rivers, some flooding is possible. Furthermore, low to mid level winds are once again expected to be fairly slow, leading to slow moving showers and higher precipitation amounts. Most locations in W. Puerto Rico will see less than an inch, with isolated areas receiving higher amounts. Showers will also be possible for eastern Puerto Rico where streamers set up downstream of Vieques, St. Croix, and El Yunque. Very similar conditions will persist for the next few days. Precipitable water values stay near average, which is more than sufficient to couple with afternoon surface heating and diurnal effects to produce the usual shower activity. The prevailing flow will generally be easterly, with a hint of south southeasterly flow. Thus, showers will continue each afternoon for western Puerto Rico, with higher rainfall chances in NW PR compared to SW PR. LONG TERM... A weak upper-level low is expected to be positioned to the east of the islands on Friday, progressing slowly westward through the weekend. An area of low-level moisture is also anticipated to begin pushing into the region on Friday; increasing moisture is likely through the weekend as well. With instability aloft from the upper-level low and this sufficient source of moisture, showers and convective activity are likely, spurred on by local effects and daytime heating, especially during the afternoon and evening. On Sunday, the GFS shows a tropical cyclone developing as it makes its way past the Leeward Islands into the Caribbean, and then moving west/northwestward, with a track taking it south of the islands of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In contrast, the ECMWF shows development associated with this tropical wave occurring much more slowly, with a potential tropical cyclone not appearing until late Tuesday or Wednesday, with the system northwest of Puerto Rico. This model solution also suggests a significantly weaker system. It is also worth noting that the most recent GFS run shows a later-developing and weaker system than prior runs. Considering this still substantial lead time, as well as the lack of model agreement, there is low confidence in any forecast for this potential future tropical cyclone, and as such its possible existence is not reflected in the forecast. Either way, a tropical wave is likely to pass by or over the region early next week, providing increased moisture. AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions expected through 10/14z, though there are isolated showers offshore. SHRA/TSRA expected across PR between 10/16z and 10/22z, mainly in the the vicinity of TJMZ and TJBQ, with TEMPO MVFR conditions possible. VCSH is also possible for TJSJ. Winds light and variable through 10/12z, increasing to 10 to 15 kts from the E with sea breeze variations after 10/14z. MARINE... Marine conditions will remain relatively tranquil, with wave heights up to 3-5 feet possible through the rest of the week. A small swell out of the north/northeast will persist today, bringing longer period waves to the area. There is a low to moderate rip current risk today for most beaches along the northern coasts of all islands; however, north central beaches of Puerto Rico have a moderate to high risk of rip currents. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 91 79 90 / 30 30 30 30 STT 80 90 80 91 / 30 30 30 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for North Central. VI...None. AM...None. && SHORT TERM...CAM LONG TERM....ICP AVIATION...CAM
Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 549 AM AST martes 10 de septiembre de 2019 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-111000- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe- 549 AM AST martes 10 de septiembre de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta Noche .Tronadas...Existe la probabilidad de tronadas con fuertes lluvias y rafagas de viento breves esta tarde a traves del oeste de Puerto Rico. Estas tronadas podrian producir granizos pequenos y fuertes vientos. .Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos. .Corrientes marinas... Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas a traves de las playas del norte de Puerto Rico, con un riesgo ALTO para las playas cerca de Dorado. .Dia dos a siete...miercoles hasta lunes El peligro de tronadas continua por los proximos dias, pero estas tronadas son probables que no sean intensas al pasar de los dias. Sin embargo, inundaciones menores podrian ocurrir. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones, al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-111000- San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacente del Caribe- 549 AM AST martes 10 de septiembre de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es para las Islas Virgenes Americanas y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta Noche .Corrientes marinas... Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para sectores de Charlotte Amalie. .Dia dos a siete...miercoles hasta lunes Condiciones estables ocurriran por los proximos dias a medida que aire seco se filtre en la region. Sin mebargo, aguaceros y tronadas son posibles. Un riesgo de corrientes marinas de bajo a moderado se espera por los proximos dias. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones, al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Occupant trapped in car on PR-887 near Rooms to Go furniture store due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 856283.