Severe drought conditions across Central Texas expanded north and east as the month of September progressed.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions across Central Texas expanded north and east as the month of September progressed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 10:40 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 .AVIATION... Generally clear skies are expected for most of tonight but low stratus will develop in Central Texas and move into the Waco area around sunrise and result in MVFR conditions through mid morning before the moisture mixes out. This moisture will make a run at the Metroplex airports, but no MOS supports MVFR CIGs and model soundings keep the moisture layer rather thin. Still the models didn't handle the northward extent well last night so will show SCT018 for the Metroplex area TAFs in the morning. Fair weather cumulus is expected during the afternoon hours. Another round of convection is expected to develop across central and southeastern Texas on Tuesday and move northward, but once again the chance for impacts at any one area will be too low to mention in the TAF. Otherwise S/SE winds at 10-15 kt will prevail through the period. TR.92 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ /Wednesday through Saturday/ Above normal warmth is anticipated in the long term forecast period across the area. There will be low rain chances across Central Texas through the end of the week, with slightly better rain chances across the northern Big Country and into western parts of North Texas. The diffuse upper low across the upper Texas Coast will continue to churn north and westward towards Central Texas before it becomes quite diffuse late Wednesday into Thursday. This means that we will see a slight enhancement in our diurnal rain chances across Central Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Lift is still remains quite meager with this feature and at this time I am expecting a low coverage of showers/storms (only about 20-30 percent coverage). Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday will remain above normal for this time of year, with most locales in the mid 90s. With a height gradient at 925mb and plenty of afternoon sun ---after morning stratus decays---there should be the transfer of around 15-20 knots of flow down to the surface. This should help afternoon dewpoints mix out and fall into the 60s. This yields max apparent temperatures below Heat Advisory criteria. Regardless, it still remains hot and individuals should exercise their heat safety precautions. On Thursday, the upper level feature across the upper Texas Coast will meander to the south and west of Central Texas and likely play little role in our weather. I'll maintain a 20 PoP across our southern most areas (south of the I-14/HWY 79 corridor) in case there's any enhancement in sea-breeze activity. Temperatures will likely be within 1-2 degrees of the previous day and so I've continued with a mostly persistence forecast for Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s are anticipated. There could be some relief for some on Friday as a deep upper trough ejects out of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Models have generally remained in decent agreement regarding this feature, although the GFS appears a bit stronger with the magnitude of jet level winds compared to some of the other guidance. Regardless, this appears largely inconsequential as just about all models have the attendant front stalling somewhere between the I-40 corridor and the Red River. The tail end of the 12 UTC NAM indicates a decent conveyor of low level theta-e air streaming northward into what will likely be a loosely organized line of showers and storms along this front. Low level wind fields from other long range guidance suggest a 20-25 knot low level jet should be sufficient to aid in some southward progression of this activity. As the low level flow veers and weakens through the day on Friday, it's probable that showers and storms will diminish quickly as it nears and slips to the south of the Red River. Exactly how fast this occurs is unknown. Given that model guidance has started to cluster on a solution which keeps the front closer to the I-40 corridor, I'll remain conservative on PoPs compared to blended guidance. One scenario in which this front could sag farther south than currently forecast--- and thus greater rain/storm chances along with cooler conditions---is the vigor of convection. Should a large cold pool develop, this front will be shunted southward and likely result in a substantial temperature/PoP bust for Friday. For now, PoPs are placed near and northwest of a Goldthwaite to Dallas to Sulphur Springs line. Wherever rain/clouds and north winds invade, temperatures will be lower. Again, exactly where this occurs is unknown at this time. Confidence in cooler conditions is highest along the western Red River Valley and across the Big Country and I'll advertise highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Elsewhere, hot conditions will persist with readings in the mid to upper 90s. Next weekend looks rain/storm free with temperatures slowly moderating. The zonal flow aloft gives us some hope that it won't be a scorcher, but it is possible that the ridge rebuilds stronger than currently forecast and if the ECMWF is to verify, we could see temperatures return to the century mark. Bain && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ /Today Through Tuesday/ A slow-moving, mid level impulse over Deep South Texas will move very little through tonight, as it remains cut off from better steering currents further north. To the east and northeast of this feature, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches is lifting north across eastern Central Texas. Isolated-scattered diurnally-driven convection can be seen along a northward moving seabreeze boundary and expect this to continue to progress northward into Central Texas through sunset this evening. This is already being noted on regional GOES satellite imagery and regional radars. Once daytime heating, this activity should quickly dissipate by no later than mid evening along especially the I-45 corridor. A 25-30 knot low level flow just above the surface should help to continue to draw rich gulf moisture northward overnight with developing stratus arriving across the area through sunrise Tuesday. Breezy, humid, and warm conditions will continue tonight. The South Texas impulse will begin a migration northward toward the Texas Hill Country on Tuesday, while also shearing and weakening as it encounters increasing southwesterly flow aloft in advance of a broad longwave mid level trough over the Western CONUS. In addition, another seabreeze influence looks to be in play and the combination of diurnal heating and subtle forcing from these features will likely lead to another round of isolated-scattered showers and storms across Central Texas. The western periphery of the Southeast CONUS mid level ridge and it's associated subsidence should keep North Texas rain-free with above normal temperatures continuing with highs well into the 90s for most locales (normal are around 90 degrees for this time of year). Occasionally gusty south winds between 10-15 mph are also expected to continue. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 95 76 95 76 / 10 5 0 5 0 Waco 75 95 74 96 74 / 10 20 20 10 0 Paris 72 93 72 91 73 / 0 5 0 5 0 Denton 75 94 74 94 75 / 5 5 0 5 0 McKinney 75 94 74 94 75 / 10 5 0 5 0 Dallas 77 96 77 95 77 / 10 10 0 5 0 Terrell 75 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 5 0 Corsicana 74 94 73 93 73 / 10 20 10 10 0 Temple 75 94 73 94 72 / 10 30 30 20 5 Mineral Wells 72 93 71 93 71 / 0 5 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 92
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms across Central Texas through this evening. Lightning will be the primary hazard, though the strongest thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a low chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms across Central Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Low thunderstorm chances will shift toward areas mainly north of Interstate 20 Thursday night through Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. However, a few storms will be capable of gusty downburst winds and brief heavy rainfall will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions developed across Bell County the second week of September and continued through the end of the month.
Severe drought conditions developed across Robertson County the second week of September and continued through the end of the month.
Severe drought conditions developed across Anderson County the second week of September and continued through the end of the month.
Severe drought conditions developed across Henderson County the second week of September and continued through the end of the month.
Severe drought conditions developed across Freestone County the second week of September and continued through the end of the month.
Severe drought conditions developed across the western third of Stephens County during the second week of September and continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 856199, 856200, 856201, 856202, 856203, 856216.