Warm and moist air began to return north across the Ark-La-Tex during the daytime hours on March 24th, ahead of an upper level shortwave trough that traversed east across Southern Oklahoma and North Texas. This resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the evening over Southeast Oklahoma and portions of North Texas, where better instability developed earlier in the day in…
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The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
Warm and moist air began to return north across the Ark-La-Tex during the daytime hours on March 24th, ahead of an upper level shortwave trough that traversed east across Southern Oklahoma and North Texas. This resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the evening over Southeast Oklahoma and portions of North Texas, where better instability developed earlier in the day in response to daytime heating. Despite the marginal instability near the surface, ample shear and forcing were noted aloft ahead of this approaching disturbance and associated cold front, where several supercell thunderstorms developed over these areas during the evening. As a result, some of these storms produced large hail initially over Northern McCurtain County Oklahoma, and well as across portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, before the scattered severe thunderstorms spread east southeast into Northeast Texas and Southern McCurtain County Oklahoma during the late evening through the early morning hours on the 25th. Additional large hail reports were received across portions of these areas, before the storms organized into a cluster and surged southeast across portions of East Texas and Northwest Louisiana.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 24, 4:36 PM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 536 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 .UPDATE... Zone update just sent for the issuance of SVR Watch #33 until 05Z for much of NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. Already seeing isolated supercell storms developing attm across portions of N TX/Ern OK, along a cold front that continues to slowly progress SE across these areas. SBCapes have risen to 1500-2000 J/KG along a narrow instability axis along/ahead of the front, with MLCapes expected to gradually increase this evening across the expanding warm sector over E TX/N LA/SW AR as a shortwave trough, analyzed over the Lower TX Panhandle and Wrn OK, continues to progress along and N of the Red River Valley through the evening and into Cntrl/Srn AR/N LA overnight. While isolated supercells with large hail are expected initially given the bulk shear of 50kts, some clustering of the convection is expected later this evening which will lead to more of a svr wind/hail threat, as they eventually shift SE into NE TX/SW AR late this evening, to near the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA between 07-10Z. Did not make any additional adjustments attm to the going forecast. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/ A very active evening/overnight is expected across our region concerning strong to severe convection. The key player with this forecast is a subtle disturbance currently moving out of the Intermountain West and into the Southern Plains. Not much in the way of amplification with this system but it is associated with a 110kt jet streak which will be moving our way during the evening/overnight hours, helping to enhance upper forcing in advance of the trough itself. At the surface, a nearly stationary frontal boundary was located across SE KS into Central OK and far NW TX. This boundary will get a kick our way with the ejection of the trough later this evening with strong to severe convection expected to erupt along and in advance of the surface boundary. Diagnosing current instability parameters, strongest heating has been to the west of our region where cu field has scattered out with upwards of 2000J/KG of SBCAPE from near Ardmore, OK to across the Dallas/Fort Worth area onto near the San Antonio area but expect these values to increase later this afternoon into the evening hours with higher dewpoints expected to build northward across our region. Deep Layer Bulk Shear values will be near 50kts which suggests supercell thunderstorms will be likely at initiation with a broken line and/or bowing line segments likely as we go through the nighttime hours. Mid level lapse rates will support large hail with the strongest storms with damaging wind gusts becoming likely later into the evening and overnight hours. Latest 12z NAM output is showing a little more in the way of 0-3km SRH that previous progs have suggested across the warm sector so will need to watch for an isolated tornado threat as well. Look for storm initiation to begin near or just northwest of our region an hour or so either side of 7 pm this evening with high resolution models showing explosive development southwest to northeast along the frontal boundary across NE TX, SE OK and SW AR between 7pm and the Midnight hour. This line will gradually build south and east across the remainder of our region after midnight with perhaps a downward trend to the intensity of the line south of the I-20 Corridor closer to sunrise Monday Morning. SPC has upgraded their DAY 1 Outlook to an Enhanced Slight Risk across our northern half for the evening/overnight hours with a Slight Risk nearer to the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and NW LA and this corresponds to the weakening trend to the convection expected during the predawn hours due to a stabilizing boundary layer south of the corridor. Kept some small pops going across our southern third for Monday Afternoon but the severe threat should have well ended by this time with the front completely exiting our region by 7 pm Monday Evening. 13 LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ Upper trough will continue to exit the region on Tuesday with sunny skies following in the wake of the cold front from Monday. Pleasant and seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday afternoon. The coolest temperatures of the next seven days will occur Tuesday night as high pressure and clear skies dominate with overnight lows falling into the upper 30s north to lower and mid 40s south. A warming trend will begin to take shape by Wednesday as southerly winds return and an upper level ridge sets up across the southern U.S. This warm air advection will allow for a gradual increase in temperatures back into the mid 70s for highs and the 50s to near 60 degrees for lows through late week. As far as the prospects for rain, weak isentropic ascent will return Thursday night into Friday with slowly increasing rain chances as a few upper level disturbances transition across the region in the SW flow pattern aloft. However, the best chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will hold off until late Friday night into Saturday as a cold front shifts SE from the Plains. The ECMWF is the preferred model solution for this scenario with greater consistency over the past several runs. The threat of severe weather is still a bit uncertain at the moment, and timing overnight through Saturday morning may not lend itself to a favorable storm environment as far as instability is concerned. However, this potential is still quite far out in the forecast with better model consensus desired before higher confidence is achieved. In the meantime, warmer and seasonal conditions for early Spring are expected through the last full week of March. 19 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ AVIATION... Mostly MVFR ceilings across our airspace late this morning with these ceilings likely becoming low VFR later this afternoon. All eyes still on the forecast this evening and overnight with strong to severe convection likely impacting our terminal locations during this TAF period. Brought VFR ceilings back down to MVFR this evening and ahead of the convection with TEMPO IFR ceilings, lower VSBYS along with +TSRA and variable gusty winds with the most intense convection from north to south during the night. Look for a return to VFR conditions and post frontal northwest winds near 10-15kts beyond 12-15z on Monday across all terminal locations except the LFK terminal. Otherwise, a south, southwest wind will prevail ahead of the convection near 8-12kts with some higher gusts possible across our NE TX terminal locations. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 61 77 49 67 / 80 60 0 0 MLU 60 77 49 66 / 80 60 0 0 DEQ 52 68 44 67 / 80 10 0 0 TXK 56 71 46 65 / 80 10 0 0 ELD 56 74 46 66 / 80 30 0 0 TYR 60 74 47 69 / 80 60 0 0 GGG 60 75 48 68 / 80 60 0 0 LFK 63 80 49 71 / 40 40 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && 15
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 128 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-251830- Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Bienville- Jackson-Ouachita-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp- Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk- Panola- 128 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight... The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will increase later this evening and overnight through early Monday morning as a cold front advances across the region. The highest risk area for severe weather will be north of a line from near Tyler, Texas eastward to Shreveport and Farmerville, Louisiana. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail possibly up to golf ball size. Although the overall tornado risk is low, an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday... A couple of severe storms will still be possible through sunrise Monday morning, but the overall risk for severe weather should be diminishing. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Thunderstorms will likely persist along and south of Interstate 20 until a cold front completely exits the area Monday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will return by late Thursday through Saturday as a series of upper level disturbances move across the region. Thunderstorm chances will be much higher, including the potential for more severe weather, as the front moves across the Four State Region during the day on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary tonight through early Monday morning. LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-251830- De Soto-Red River-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell- La Salle-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- 128 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight... Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight into early Monday morning as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out, but the overall risk for tornadoes is very low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday... A couple of severe storms will still be possbile through sunrise Monday morning, but the overall risk for severe weather should be diminishing. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Thunderstorms will likely persist south of Interstate 20 until a cold front completely exits the area Monday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will return by late Thursday through Saturday as a series of upper level disturbances move across the region. Thunderstorm chances will be much higher, including the potential for more severe weather, as the front moves across the Four State Region during the day on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary tonight through early Monday morning. 19
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
622 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019
OKZ077-242345-
McCurtain OK-
622 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MCCURTAIN COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...
At 622 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Oleta, or 23 miles northeast of Hugo, moving east at 20
mph.
Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Rufe and Ringold.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.
LAT...LON 3416 9493 3411 9516 3424 9515 3425 9505
3433 9504 3434 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 248DEG 17KT 3418 9516
13Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 OKZ077-250015- McCurtain OK- 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCCURTAIN COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT... At 639 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12 miles southwest of Octavia, or 31 miles southeast of Clayton, moving northeast at 50 mph. Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Bethel, Battiest, Mount Herman, Smithville and Sherwood. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern Oklahoma. LAT...LON 3427 9485 3440 9500 3451 9487 3451 9451 TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 226DEG 41KT 3439 9486 13
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:00 UTC.
3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Pictures of golfball to hen egg size hail was submitted to the National Weather Service near the Mountain Country Store in Smithville.
The Holly Creek Fire Department reported quarter size hail in the Holly Creek community.
A picture of half-dollar size hail that fell in Broken Bow was posted to social media.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 806396, 806397, 806398.