Hail in Illinois, March 24, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
649 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Thunderstorms have developed within the last 90 minutes from
central through south central MO in response to large scale
forcing with the upper low in northwest MO and subsequent
reduction in CIN, and were pushing into east central MO. As
discussed in the previous AFD update, the coverage of storms will
continue to increase and the greatest severe threat will reside
the remainder of this afternoon and into this the first half of
this evening across east central and southeast MO into southwest
IL along and ahead of the advancing surface low and southwestward
trailing cold front. The latest mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE on the
order of 500-1000 J/KG in this region, and further destabilization
is expected in response to low level moisture/warm thermal
advection topped by steep mid level lapse rates. Deep layer shear
continues to support supercells with large hail the primary
threat, although there will also be a limited tornado threat
centered across southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of
the advancing surface low and where surface winds are forecast to
locally back and a west-east warm front will also reside.

The thunderstorm threat should pass to the east by late evening.
From late evening through overnight hours I am expecting low
stratus to become dominate within the low level north-northeast
flow/CAA in the wake of the the surface low and cold front.
Scattered showers are also expected from the late evening through
overnight, especially across IL and eastern MO attendant with the
southeastward moving upper low and vort max.

Monday looks like a chilly day across the region. There will be a
threat of spotty showers across the southeast half of the CWA in
the morning attendant with trailing vort max. Stratus will
blanket the region during the morning and then slowly decrease
north to south during the afternoon. The combination of the clouds
and north-northeast winds and low level CAA will result in highs
some 5 to 15 degrees below normal for late March.

Continued clearing to the south is expected on Monday night as a
northwest flow short wave passes helping build high pressure into
the region and strengthening the low level CAA. Much of the area
will see below freezing temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Surface high pressure centered in the Great Lakes on Tuesday will
still influence sensible weather due to its southwestward
extension well into the lower-mid MS Valley. Highs Tuesday will
slightly warmer than Monday but will still remain below average.

Finally a big warm will commence from mid-late week - first as
ridging aloft builds into the area on Wednesday and low level flow
becomes southerly, and then later in the week as the flow aloft
becomes west to southwest and the WAA regime persists. It also
appears that during the later part of the week and into the first
part of the weekend the threat of precipitation will ramp up,
although the ECMWF and GFS vary a bit on all the details. The GFS
has good low level moisture return and a weak disturbance aloft
bringing a chance of showers by Thursday, while Friday into
Saturday there will be a migratory trof and associated surface low
and frontal system bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the St. Louis region
terminals through around 02z. Flight conditions down to IFR are
possible with the storms. There is also potential for a direct
terminal impact of a severe thunderstorm or a storm will hail and
will amend if that becomes more obvious. Later this evening and
overnight flight conditions will deteriorate through MVFR and into
IFR as stratus becomes predominant in the wake of the low
pressure system and cold front. There could also be some spotty
rain showers overnight and into early Monday morning. The IFR
flight conditions should persist through the first half of Monday
morning with gradual improvement from the late morning into the
afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Showers and thunderstorms will impact KSTL through around 02z.
Flight conditions down to IFR are possible with the storms. There
is also potential for a direct terminal impact of a severe
thunderstorm or a storm with hail and will amend if that becomes
more obvious. Later this evening and overnight flight conditions
will deteriorate through MVFR and into IFR by 06z, as stratus
becomes predominant in the wake of the low pressure system and
cold front. There could also be some spotty rain showers overnight
and into early Monday morning. The IFR flight conditions should
persist through the first half of Monday morning with gradual
improvement from the late morning into the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
431 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-252145-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
431 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this evening, especially across east central
and southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois where scattered severe
thunderstorms are expected. Large hail will be the primary severe
weather threat, although damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are
also possible.

Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing on the Mississippi River
north of Saint Louis and on the Illinois River at Hardin. See the
appropriate Flood Statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Major river flooding is ongoing at Saverton Lock and Dam on the
Mississippi River, otherwise, several locations on the Mississippi
River will continue to be in or are forecast to reach moderate
flooding. Moderate flooding is also forecast on the Missouri River
at Jefferson City and on the Illinois River at Hardin. See the
appropriate Flood Statements for specific details.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through early this evening across
parts of southeast and east central Missouri into southwest Illinois.

Glass

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             1 SSW WARRENTON         38.81N 91.15W
03/24/2019  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             MO   PUBLIC

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             3 SE BLACKWELL          38.02N 90.59W
03/24/2019  M1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT.

&&

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
654 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             1 W WRIGHT CITY         38.83N 91.04W
03/24/2019  M0.70 INCH       WARREN             MO   PUBLIC

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W DILLARD             37.74N 91.27W
03/24/2019                   CRAWFORD           MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             1 NE WRIGHT CITY        38.84N 91.01W
03/24/2019  E0.88 INCH       WARREN             MO   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR 15 MINUTES.

&&

MAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
659 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ILZ058-098>100-MOZ052-250045-
Calhoun IL-Madison IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Lincoln MO-
659 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CALHOUN...SOUTHERN
GREENE...NORTHWESTERN MADISON...JERSEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hardin, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Godfrey, Jerseyville, Hardin, Grafton, Old Kane, Kane, Fieldon,
Batchtown, Foley, Otterville, Delhi, McClusky and Nutwood.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Illinois...and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3904 9074 3922 9074 3924 9017 3895 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 278DEG 35KT 3913 9065

Kanofsky