Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Oklahoma, April 17, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
247 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern is the severe weather potential tonight,
concerning which there are two main areas of concern:

 - Cold Front across northern Oklahoma: A few storms have
   initiated on a cold front stretching through the Texas
   panhandle. Expectation is for storms to continue to fire along
   this front over the next couple of hours into northwest
   Oklahoma after which the line will start making its way
   eastward into the evening. Confidence is high regarding storm
   development in this area. Main threats will be large hail and
   damaging winds.

 - Dryline from west central to central and south central
   Oklahoma: CAPE and shear will be stronger down in this area,
   but so will the cap. Getting storms along the dryline will
   initially be difficult, though any storms that develop will
   have the possibility of very large hail (baseball), damaging
   winds up to 70 mph, and a low tornado threat. As the dryline
   moves east, the cap will weaken resulting in increasing chances
   for storms especially east of I-35 after about 6pm.

Some wrap-around may allow for lingering showers and storms into
early Thursday morning before the low moves out. Severe threat is
expected to drop substantially after about 2am.

With the cold front coming through today, Thursday will be much
cooler. A reinforcing shot of cold air will keep temperatures cool
on Friday as well.

Winds return to southerly on Saturday resulting in a deep mixing
pattern. Trended winds and maximum temperatures closer to MOS
guidance for Saturday and Sunday.

Rain chances return early next week as a couple of waves move
through the area. Models are still fairly divergent when it comes
to timing and depth of the waves.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  67  45  66 /  40  10   0   0
Hobart OK         50  69  43  69 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  54  69  46  69 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           46  68  40  72 /  90   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  67  43  67 /  90  10   0   0
Durant OK         57  67  47  66 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
250 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-182000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
250 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight.
There are two main areas of concern.

In northwest and north central Oklahoma, including the Woodward,
Enid, and Ponca City areas...Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a cold front as early as 4 PM and move eastward
into the evening. Primary threats will be large hail up to the
size of tennis balls and damaging wind gusts exceeding 70 mph,
along with locally heavy rainfall and a low tornado risk.

In central and south central Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma
City, Ardmore, Ada, and Durant areas...Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop along a dryline mainly after 6 PM and
move eastward with the highest chances being in south central
Oklahoma. The main threats with these storms will be very large
hail up to baseball size and damaging wind gusts exceeding 70 mph,
along with a low tornado threat.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible overnight across central
Oklahoma, as the cold front slides southeastward. The main threat
with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

The severe threat is expected to decrease significantly after
about 2 AM.

.Heavy Rainfall...
There is a marginal risk for flash flooding over all but
southwestern Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations later this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening through Tuesday. A
few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
311 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

OKZ014-021-172045-
Roger Mills OK-Beckham OK-
311 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Roger Mills and
northwestern Beckham Counties Until 345 PM CDT...

AT 300 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Twitty, moving northeast at 25 to 30 MPH. This storm will cross
the Oklahoma and Texas state line after 3:30 pm.  If storm intensity
remains the same a  severe thunderstorm warning will be required.
This storm is moving in the direction of Dempsey and Reydon.

LAT...LON 3565 10000 3575 9986 3543 9964 3532 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 240DEG 20KT 3539 10016

SIX