Thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours as an upper level low pressure center and a dryline approached from the west. Storms continued overnight as a cold front swept across the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours as an upper level low pressure center and a dryline approached from the west. Storms continued overnight as a cold front swept across the region. Hail was the primary severe weather occurrence in the afternoon and evening; while damaging winds were the primary occurrence overnight.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 17, 6:07 AM CST, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 707 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019 .AVIATION... MVFR CIGs should prevail this morning as moisture advection continues into the region beneath a stout inversion. CIGs have occasionally scattered in the last couple hours as some of the drier air aloft has mixed down, but in general I think CIGs between 1000 and 2000 feet will prevail through mid morning. By late morning heights should lift above 2000 feet and by early afternoon above 3000 feet. VFR CIGs are likely in most areas through the afternoon and evening, but western Metroplex TAF sites may scatter out as inversion lifts and boundary layer moisture is vented off. South winds will prevail near 20kt with higher gusts. Main concern is convection - and confidence is growing that storms will be able to initiate along the dryline west of the Metroplex late this afternoon - and these cells would be severe as they move east and impact the airports. Have VCTS from 0z/1z to 6z/8z and included at TEMPO for TSRA from 1z/2z to 5z/6z (earlier timing for western sites). Initial round should be supercells, but a line should form after 3 or 4z with the northern part of this line clipping the DFW TRACON. Future TAF issuances may need to extend the mention of thunder for the line if it is slower or if significant anvil precipitation lingers. For Waco the main window for storms will be between 4z and 8z as the line moves through. Otherwise VFR is expected in the wake of the convection early Thursday and winds will gradually swing to the northwest behind a cold front. TR.92 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ There is high confidence that all of the ingredients for a severe weather event will be in place over the region this afternoon and tonight, but exactly how it plays out remains uncertain primarily due to a complex upper level pattern leading to waves of organized forcing for ascent and subsidence. Meteorologists can often get lost in the "parameter space" of forecasting severe weather, meaning that countless numbers and indices relating to the type and severity of the weather dominate the forecast and conversation of it. In reality the upper level dynamics and the physical response of the atmosphere to it is extremely important and can make or break a severe weather event. Unfortunately this piece is extremely difficult to forecast, both because these features are aloft and difficult to sample which can lead to numerical modeling errors. Likewise it is tough for human forecasters to infer how the numerical model is handling those features. So having said that, lets dive into the upper level features that are critical to the forecast and will influence 3 separate potential severe convective events/areas. The upper level low currently over Arizona is poised to enter the state later today and pivot northeastward tonight. Rounding the base of the trough will be two shortwaves, the first moving across the region around midday and the second crossing the region late tonight. Forcing for ascent will occur ahead of both of these, but a wave of subsidence will spread across the region late this afternoon and early evening in the wake of the first. The upper trough maintains a positive tilt which means in the wake of the first shortwave it is very likely that the winds near 800 mb will veer and weaken which will impact the low level shear profile and help to keep the tornado threat from getting out of hand. But ahead of the first shortwave may be a different story. So the 3 areas and times of potential severe convection are... 1) Across the eastern and southeastern counties, east of a Hearne to Corsicana to Bonham line, between 3 pm and 7 pm: The early passage of the first shortwave means most of the area will remain too cool and capped for convection. Across this eastern area however, it's possible that just enough daytime heating and, more importantly, continued moisture advection will result in enough uncapped instability for convective initiation and severe weather. A lack of any boundary in this area will limit surface convergence and therefore also may result in convection struggling to organize. Typically this warm-advection driven convection takes a long time to develop and intensify even in unstable environments. The forecast soundings and severe weather parameters in this area make us most concerned about a more significant tornado threat than any other area of our CWA, but we are also concerned about very large hail. We estimate based on a basket of the CAMs that the potential for severe convection anywhere in this region is about 40% meaning the severe weather threat is more conditional (may not happen at all). 2) The northwest and north central part of the CWA, including the DFW Metroplex, from 5 pm to 10 pm: A dryline will likely reach a Bowie to Comanche line late this afternoon. Unlike areas farther east, strong surface convergence along the boundary is forecast and will help to provide a favored zone for convective initiation. However, this region will likely be in weak subsidence in the wake of the early day shortwave during the peak heating hours of late afternoon. This could lead to false convective starts and struggling convection despite a very unstable and uncapped airmass as temperatures reach the low 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. In addition the early day shortwave will lead to weaker winds in the 800 mb area and a veer-back-veer profile in the lowest levels with a hodograph depicting a pronounced kink due to these weaker winds. This type of shear profile may be both good and bad. It should lower the potential for strong sustained low level mesocyclones and thus the tornado threat would be more isolated and brief. On the other hand it may actually help convection initiate as there will be less turbulent mixing and shear to decapitate infant updrafts. Finally this shear profile would increase the potential for very large hail as it would result in greater mid and upper level cloud layer shear which is far more important for copious amounts of large hail growth than just being unstable. Although we should mention that it most certainly will be very unstable with MLCAPE possibly near 3000 J/KG and a large amount of instability in the hail growth zone. Several sounding analogs suggest that any mature supercell in this area will have the potential to produce baseball to softball size hail. If supercells do form and remain isolated past 9 pm, we will have to closely monitor the 800 mb flow as the approach of the next trough could bring more cyclonic curvature in the low levels and lead to a higher tornado potential. Remember, severe storms are still not a certainty in this region as it is possible the subsidence wins out - but based on the various CAMs we estimate a 60-70% chance there will be severe weather somewhere in this area between 5 and 10 pm. 3) The entire CWA, but especially areas south of I-20 after 9pm: The approach of the main upper trough axis will bring the second shortwave across Central Texas resulting in strong forcing across most of the region, but especially south of I-20. Moderate to high instability and a weak cap will result in a rapidly developing line of storms west of I-35 that should race eastward into the overnight hours. Storm mode suggests that while there will be hail threat - it will not be as extreme as the other 2 potential events. Instead damaging winds look like the primary threat with this squall line, but the possibility remains there will be some brief embedded tornadoes along the line. Confidence is high across Central and East Texas that this line of storms will occur (with PoPs 80-100%) however the farther north one goes the weaker and less organized the dynamic forcing is and thus these areas may miss out on this round. In summary, not everyone will see severe weather, but everyone should prepare for it. It's one of those days we ask people just to stay plugged into your favorite source of weather information so that you can act if need be - whether it's moving a car somewhere protected or seeking a safe shelter. TR.92 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019/ /Thursday Onward/ Our overnight convection should have just about cleared the area to the east by daybreak Thursday. The main feature of interest will then be a fairly strong cold front that will sweep through the forecast area during the morning hours, turning winds rather breezy out of the northwest while delivering a shot of cooler air. Winds will likely be 20-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph, so we may be looking at borderline Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures will be nearly steady or may even fall slightly before noon as some post-frontal stratus overspreads the area. However, some clearing in the afternoon should still allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s or low 70s. Some low rain chances will accompany this frontal passage as well, but limited instability should confine this to mostly showery activity just behind the front. Later Thursday evening, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread areas near/west of I-35 with some isentropic ascent occurring on the western periphery of the departing upper trough. At a minimum, this should support a deck of mid-level clouds spreading into the area, and perhaps some virga or light rain showers heading into Thursday night. Will maintain a silent 10% PoP for now, but a mention of showers may need to be introduced if it appears this potential is increasing. Quieter weather should then prevail on Friday and Saturday as we remain between systems with upper ridging occurring aloft. Mostly clear skies and a return to southerly winds will allow a warming trend to commence, with highs climbing to near normal on Friday and above normal on Saturday. The next shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains on Sunday, leading to a deepening surface low across the Texas Panhandle. This disturbance is progged a bit more vigorous in the latest model runs, which may have some minor implications for Easter Sunday. Intensifying low-level flow should allow for some 20-30 mph winds throughout the day, while also causing moisture to quickly return to the region. Lift won't be terribly strong immediately over the forecast area throughout the day, which should limit precip chances, although coarser guidance is hinting that isentropic ascent on a saturated 315K theta surface may allow some precip to originate in the mid-levels. These hydrometeors would have to overcome quite a bit of dry air in the 850-600mb layer, which is why a shower mention has not yet been introduced. In summary, am expecting a mild, breezy, and partly/mostly cloudy Easter Sunday while rain chances remain pretty low at this time. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty heading into next week with large discrepancies in the synoptic pattern among extended guidance. After the Sunday shortwave trough passes through, most of the disagreement lies with how the next upstream trough is being handled. This next system could arrive as early as Monday as suggested by the ECMWF, or not until late Tuesday as suggested by the GFS. When it finally does arrive, the system's weak trailing cold front will be pulled into the forecast area. This front would act to increase rain chances either Monday or Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday as some overrunning occurs above this slow- moving boundary. Some steep lapse rates aloft may contribute to moderate instability throughout this time period, but relatively weak flow through the column would limit shear, and therefore storm organization, too. Convection may consist of rather generic disorganized thunderstorm activity with a fairly limited strong/severe threat, but we'll continue to monitor this over the coming days as model guidance begins to agree on a solution for early next week. Mild near-normal temperatures will prevail throughout this time period with highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 59 70 52 74 / 20 80 20 5 0 Waco 81 57 70 51 75 / 30 90 10 10 5 Paris 74 60 67 48 69 / 30 80 30 5 0 Denton 81 55 69 49 74 / 30 70 20 5 0 McKinney 78 58 68 50 72 / 20 80 20 5 0 Dallas 81 60 70 52 74 / 20 80 20 5 0 Terrell 79 60 70 50 74 / 30 90 20 5 0 Corsicana 78 59 70 50 72 / 40 90 20 10 0 Temple 82 59 72 52 76 / 30 90 10 10 5 Mineral Wells 84 56 69 47 74 / 40 60 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 92
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-180900- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is a potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and into tonight across all of North and Central Texas. The main hazards are very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall across some areas could lead to a flooding threat. There is a low chance that some severe thunderstorms with mainly a hail and tornado threat will develop east of a Bonham to Corsicana to Hearne line from mid to late afternoon. A second area of severe thunderstorms should develop this evening for areas in North Texas, including the DFW Metroplex. These storms, if they develop, will have primarily a very large hail threat - perhaps greater than baseball size. Finally, a line of storms will develop in Central Texas tonight and track mainly south of I-20 with primarily a damaging wind threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms return to the forecast during the first half of next week. At this time, the severe weather potential with this activity appears fairly low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely late this afternoon and tonight.
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:43 UTC.
33 hail, 14 thunderstorm wind, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported 8 to 12 inches of water over the road near the intersection of Highway 287 and CR 2395 approximately 4 miles southeast of the city of Alvord, TX.
A social media report indicated penny size hail immediately southeast of the city of Bowie, TX.
Fire and rescue reported quarter size hail approximately 2 miles southwest of the city of Bowie, TX along Hanging Tree Road.
Emergency management reported nickel size hail at the EOC in Bowie, TX.
Emergency management reported nickel size hail approximately 7 miles southwest of the city of Bowie along Scout Road.
A trained spotter reported nickel size hail approximately 5 miles northwest of the city of Saint Jo, TX.
Amateur radio reported 2-inch diameter hail approximately 1 mile southwest of the city of Sunset, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter size hail in the city of Sunset, TX.
A trained spotter reported ping pong ball size hail approximately 6 miles west-northwest of the city of Alvord, TX.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail approximately 8 miles west-northwest of the city of Alvord, TX.
Fire and rescue reported nickel size hail approximately 3 miles east of the city of Bowie, TX.
Fire and rescue reported quarter size hail in the city of Crafton, TX.
Amateur radio reported hen-egg size hail approximately 1 mile southwest of the city of Sunset, TX.
Emergency management reported wind gusts of 50 to 60 MPH approximately 10 miles northwest of the city of Muenster, TX.
Emergency management reported quarter size hail in the city of Forestburg, TX.
A social media report indicated hen egg size hail approximately 2 miles northeast of the city of Chico, TX.
A trained spotter reported half-dollar size hail approximately 5 miles north of the city of Chico, TX.
A trained spotter reported one-inch hail approximately 2 miles north of the city of Chico, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter size hail approximately 3 miles south of the city of Alvord, TX.
A trained spotter reported ping pong ball size hail approximately 2 miles southwest of the city of Alvord, TX.
A trained spotter reported half dollar size hail approximately 1 mile west of the city of Alvord, TX.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail approximately 2 miles southeast of the city of Alvord, TX.
Emergency management reported significant roof damage to a mobile home and fiberglass stairs destroyed in DeLeon. A 20 by 20 metal shed with tie-downs was blown apart with pieces moved up to 100 feet.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail approximately 4 miles west of the city of Lindsay, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter size hail approximately 2 miles west of the city of Lindsay, TX.
Mills County Sheriff's Department reported nickel size hail in the city of Goldthwaite, TX.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail in the city of Lindsay, TX.
A trained spotter reported nickel size hail in the city of Gainesville, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter size hail in the city of Gainesville, TX.
Half dollar sized hail was measured at the Cooke County Emergency Operations Center just west of the city of Gainesville, TX.
A trained spotter reported half dollar size hail approximately 2 miles north of the city of Gainesville, TX.
A trained spotter reported penny size hail in the city of Dublin, TX.
A trained spotter reported nickel size hail in the city of Callisburg, TX.
Broadcast media reported nickel size hail approximately one mile west of the city of Oak Ridge, TX on Highway 82.
A trained spotter reported quarter size hail in the city of Whitesboro, TX.
A trained spotter reported 8 inches of water over Highway 455 approximately 15 miles east-northeast of the city of Alvord, TX.
A social media report indicated large trees down in the city of Adamsville, TX.
Broadcast media reported damage to the roofs of homes in the Copperas Cove area.
The Denton Airport Automated Surface Observation System reported a 74 MPH wind gust.
Metal roofs were torn off of 3 buildings at the UNT's Rafes Urban Astronomy Center. The ASOS at the airport next to the property measured 74 mph winds. The rain inside the exposed buildings caused hundreds of thousands of dollars in water damage to several telescopes.
Amateur radio reported quarter size hail in the city of Justin, TX.
The Waco Airport Automated Surface Observation System measured a wind gust of 60 MPH.
A trained spotter reported large trees down in the city of Waco, TX.
A home was damaged from thunderstorm winds in the Ennis area. The awning of the porch was ripped off, other lightweight objects were tossed about, and large tree limbs were split or knocked down.
Emergency management reported 20 to 40 trees down on Highway 79 in the city of Marquez, TX.
A large swatch of damaging winds moved across Leon County. Damage to a single-wide manufactured home south of Farm to Market (FM) 1618 occurred as the structure was rolled once to the east by the damaging winds. Two occupants were injured here and one individual was ejected from the structure. The peak wind associated with displacing this structure from its foundation was around 85 mph. Farther to the east, a single family residence suffered noteworthy roof damage consistent with 90 mph wind gusts near the community of Flo. In addition, discussion with the inhabitants revealed that nearly a dozen trees on the residence property had been either snapped or uprooted and required removal. One inhabitant at this residence was injured due to flying debris. Along the entire path of wind damage, notable tree damage was observed.
Very sporadic, but somewhat more concentrated wind damage was noted to extremely rural portions of southwest Anderson County along Red Town Road. Damage to a mix of hardwood and softwood trees was deemed to be consistent with 70 mph winds. While shallow root systems were noted, there appeared to be several trees that had been snapped or uprooted just north of Box Creek southwest of the city of Elkhart in Anderson County along Red Town Road/FM 319.
Broadcast media reported several large trees blown down near the Palestine Armory.
Emergency management reported at least one hundred trees blown down, many of which were very large and some of which fell on homes and vehicles.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 818788, 818703, 818704, 818706, 818708, 818710, 818712, 818713, 818716, 818717, 818718, 818722, 818724, 818749, 818726, 818728, 818729, 818730, 818731, 818732, 818733, 818734, 819736, 818735, 818737, 818738, 818739, 818740, 818741, 819730, 818742, 818743, 818744, 818745, 818746, 818784, 818748, 818752, 818750, 823156, and more.