Thunderstorms with heavy rain developed ahead of an upper level disturbance.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain developed ahead of an upper level disturbance.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 3:50 AM EST, 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 450 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move east across central Ohio today, then east into Pennsylvania tonight. As the low goes by, a weak cold front will move southeast across the region. For tonight into Thursday night, embedded weak disturbances aloft will continue to move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, keeping the weather a little unsettled. High pressure and drier weather will build into the region by Friday. It will gradually become a little cooler and less humid through the short term period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A west to east low level jet and its associated moist ascent was responsible for the north to south convective line of showers and thunderstorms moving east across the forecast area this morning. No convective allowing model is capturing the coverage and orientation of this pcpn, so will have to improvise based on radar and its depicted movement trends through sunrise. We never really received the moderate instability previously forecast, and the MCS type feature that ended up materializing dove south/southeast, and well southwest of our area. So, showers and thunderstorms will move east through sunrise, with chances expected to not end thereafter, but at least taper off by then. The pwats are fairly high, 2.00 to 2.50 inches, so locally heavy rain will occur in a short period of time. Given the dry weather recently, and with at least a decent storm motion, we should see a limited flood threat. For later today, low pressure will move east across central Ohio. As this occurs, a weak cold front will slip southeast across the southern CWFA. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary to the north of the low will also slip south into northern Ohio. With diurnal heating and these boundaries, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. It now appears that the stronger deep layer shear will be south of the region this afternoon. As such, the threat for appreciable severe storms are not expected now, but an isolated strong/severe storm can not be ruled out during peak heating. Dewpoints will increase across the southern CWFA ahead of the front, into the lower and possible mid 70s. However, temperatures here should peak in the mid and upper 80s, keeping heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. So, will not issue a heat advisory at this time, and highlight the near threshold values in the HWO product. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure will move east into Pennsylvania tonight. The boundary across our north will settle south into the region, while the other cold front continues to move away from the area. With the loss of instability and appreciable forcing, convection should wane overnight. Clouds will linger, with the potential for stratus to develop across the southern CWFA. Some fog potential is there, but confidence is low at this time given uncertainty of cloud cover. Lows will range from the lower 60s north to near 70 south of the Ohio River. On Wednesday, s/wv energy is expected to dig east across the Great Lakes. The lingering boundary across the region will extend west/northwest as a hang back trough to weak low pressure near southern Lake Michigan. In addition, the low will have another boundary trailing south from it. The boundary across our region, along with the eastward progressing boundary toward our western zones, along with diurnal heating, will result in a low chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. It will be a little cooler, but a bit humid (but not as oppressive as Tuesday). Highs will range from the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall model projections through the extended period indicate that broad troughing will generally remain in place across the eastern half of the CONUS through early next week. By Thursday morning, a broad area of surface high pressure will be located upstream of the area over the middle / upper Mississippi Valley region. Though this high will be moving slowly into the Ohio Valley, the axis of a broad trough in the mid levels will still exist over the area, likely sparking off some precipitation across the eastern half of the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon. Though Friday seems the most likely to be dry, as the surface high moves into the area, there are some indications that it may not be a clean high -- and perhaps a very low-end chance of showers and storms may end up being needed. As the broad mid-level flow shifts to the WSW heading into the weekend, occasional chances for convection will begin to increase heading into Saturday/Sunday/Monday, especially during peak diurnal timing -- with no obvious signs of boundary layer features for forcing at this distance in the forecast. On Thursday and Friday, with the surface high and mid-level troughing in the area, temperatures will trend near to slightly cooler than normal (lower 80s). As the pattern shifts slightly for the weekend, temperatures will warm again into the upper 80s to near 90. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The convective evolution will still be complex over the next 6 hours. Latest mosaic radar indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms moving east across the western terminals (aided by an west to east low level jet) Farther west, a more bonafide thunderstorm complex is taking shape across southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana. Models have been struggling on the exact evolution for several runs now and even up to this point. However, it appears that the complex to our west will dive southeast, and it may clip just southeast of KCVG but more toward KSDF. This is where very heavy rain and potential wind issues are now expected. For our area, we should see thunderstorms fill in and be most numerous from KDAY to KCVG and KILN. However, KCMH/KLCK should get in on the action briefly. MVFR ceilings and IFR/LIFR visibilities can be expected in storms. All of this activity quickly moves east/southeast through 12Z. Thereafter, there should be a lull in convective activity. Models continue to bring MVFR ceilings to the region in the moist low level southwest to west flow ahead of an area of weak low pressure and a cold front for later this morning. So, have continued this trend. For this afternoon, the weak low will continue to move east toward east central Ohio. This will allow the cold front to sag southeast across the region. Also, another frontal boundary north of the low will begin to shift south across northern Ohio. The combination of diurnal heating and the boundaries should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Coverage is low enough to just place VCSH at the terminals, but next forecast package may have to introduce a VCTS/CB. Ceilings will struggle to become VFR, with some spots likely remaining around 2500 to 3000 feet. For tonight, the low will move east into Pennsylvania. The first cold front will exist the region, while the frontal boundary to the north begins to weaken and transitions to a trough axis. With the loss of instability and substantial forcing, convection should wane overnight. However, low level moisture will continue across the region which may allow stratus to form, especially for southern terminals. Fog may also become an issue, but will look at this again with the next forecast package. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 311 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 080-082-131100- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Highland-Pike- 311 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-131100- Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton- Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Adams-Scioto- 311 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The combination of heat and humidity will result in heat indicies in the mid and upper 90s Tuesday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:18 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A gravel driveway was washed out.
Water was reported over part of a road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 835276, 835278.