Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, July 31, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Thunderstorms moving down from Canada have increased in strength a
bit as they cross the border into Cavalier county. With ML CAPE
values around 3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts
think that strength will be maintained for a bit longer until we
start to lose residual heat from daylight. Bumped up POPs a bit
across our far north for the next few hours. CAMs have the cells
slowly sinking south across the Devils Lake Basin and northern
RRV, with the HRRR most bullish on convection holding together
past 06Z. Other CAMs and even other runs of the HRRR are not as
strong. Have POPs slowly tapering to isolated after the 06-08Z
time frame, and will adjust if needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

The main challenge for this time frame is thunder chances.
Currently not a lot is happening. There was a lot of cloud cover
west of the FA this morning, which limited the heating somewhat.
However it is fairly clear now with temperatures back into the low
80s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. This is giving
surface based CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg over western and central
ND with just a little CIN left. Effective shear is around 30
knots and precipitable water values at about 1.2 to 1.3 inches.
Surface boundaries are a little diffuse. However high resolution
models do show storms developing over western ND in the late
afternoon and early evening. Some of these storms may hold
together as they reach the Devils Lake region by mid to late
evening. However, the sun will be setting by then and the low
level jet and 850mb warm advection is not that impressive.
Therefore think these storms will weaken as they approach the
Devils Lake region. Think most activity will diminish by late
evening, but some of the high resolution models show a shower or
weak storm lingering into the overnight hours up along the
Canadian border.

Thunder possibilities into Thursday are a bigger challenge. A
remnant surface boundary may be draped across the northern half of
the FA on Thursday. Some models show additional shower and weaker
storm activity lingering in the morning, but there are better
chances for a few strong to severe storms again by afternoon. The
northern half of the FA remains in a marginal risk, so the
potential is there.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Lots of uncertainty by Thursday night, so pretty much left low
precipitation chances across the entire FA. Should have a better
idea on how much activity may linger Thursday night with later
forecasts.

Thunderstorms will be possible for late day and eve Fri, but weak
forcing for ascent will allow for only isolated storms. Continued
weak deep layer shear will also limit the severe potential. What we
will have at the surface should be a weak synoptic boundary
somewhere over the northern forecast area below mainly
northwest flow aloft.

This northwest flow will always make it difficult to pinpoint
spatial and temporal extent of storms, but there is indication of a
somewhat more substantial surface boundary and associated upper wave
for later Sun. Another opportunity presents about 24 to 36 hours
later, then a more zonal upper pattern could make for a more settled
dry period Tue into the middle of next week.

Temps during the period will rise to above average levels, mainly
in the mid to upper 80s Fri through Mon, trending down a bit
thereafter. Lows will be in the balmy 60s much of the time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

VFR conditions throughout the period. The high resolution models
have some convection entering the KDVL area later in the evening,
which makes sense given cells starting to form in southern
Manitoba. Have VCTS at KDVL but will keep it out of the TAF sites
further east. Winds gusting above 20 kts at some sites will
subside after sunset, with winds from the south at less than 10
kts for the rest of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB/Godon
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ016-026>030-038-039-049-
052-053-012045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Eastern Walsh County-
Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
339 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
Thursday through Saturday. The best chance for storms will be
along and north of Highway 200 for Thursday. Confidence in storm
locations remains low for Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NDZ006>008-014-015-024-054-012045-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Western Walsh County-
339 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible after 8 PM, with 1 inch
hail and 60 mph wind gusts being the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
Thursday through Saturday. The best chance for storms will be
along and north of Highway 200 for Thursday. Confidence in storm
locations remains low for Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
926 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

NDZ007-010330-
Cavalier ND-
926 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CAVALIER COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 925 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maida, or 17 miles north of Langdon, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mount Carmel around 940 PM CDT.
  Langdon around 1005 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 9822 4875 9803 4861 9845 4900 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 335DEG 22KT 4902 9839

Hopkins