What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 2:00 PM EST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 2:00 PM EST, 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and moist cold front will maintain high chances for showers
and thunderstorms through Sunday. Dry Canadian high pressure will
build into the forecast area early Monday and persist through
the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM: Convective activity has blossomed across the area.
Increasing instability and good low level shear have lead to strong
thunderstorms and enough rotation for tornadoes to be possible. A
severe storm may also develop. These will be mainly along and south
of I-85. May be another round of convection this evening as another
MCV approaches from the southwest. Strong to severe storms may be
possible with the second wave as shear will continue but instability
will be on the wane. An isolated flood event cannot be ruled out
given the high rainfall rates and very moist atmosphere,
Expect storms to diminish overnight but showers will linger. Should
be another round of convection Sunday as yet another wave approaches
from the SW. PW values will be high and moderate instability and
shear are expected. Flooding is also possible again as the air mass
remains very moist and high rainfall rates develop in storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The short term continues to show good
confidence as the op models agree well with the evolution of the
synoptic scale pattern. There are some notable differences btw the
GFS and the other models with the mass fields...however not enuf to
make large differences in the sensible weather fcst.
There will be a stg slug of upper energy pushing into the NC mtns
ahead of an ulvl low...which along with it/s own moisture and
residual moisture will maintain a precip potential across the mtns
thru the overnight. Sfc-based instability will weaken, yet mlvl LRs
will increase allowing for a few lingering general tstms. With the
incoming upper low...thicknesses will drop sigfnt/ly to arnd 555 dm
and support a cP airmass change which wont modify much thru the
period. Downward motion with the denser air will create some gusty
conds across the higher peaks Mon afternoon...but speeds look to
remain just below adv levels. Cooler BL td/s will also advect in
with readings in the mid to upper 40s both Mon and Tue. High amts of
insol will overcome lower thicknesses somewhat...so temps will reach
the lower to mid 70s making for very pleasant conds for late spring
both days.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: No sigfnt changes were made to the going
fcst over the ext range. The period will be dominated by nw/ly flow
aloft while a cP sfc high crosses the area and moves off the Atl
coast by Thu. On Wed...temps will still be held below normal as the
new airmass continues to modify. The morning lows will drop into the
l50s across the non/mtns and into the 40s over the mtn valleys. Max
temps will struggle to reach the m70s even in good sunshine.
Dewpoints will also be slow to recover thru the period...with
readings in the m40s Wed and only the m50s by Fri. So with continued
warming...the atmos will remain quite dry and pleasant at the sfc.
There looks to be a fairly strong ulvl wave reaching the mtns by Thu
evening. Moisture will be limited with this feature while static
stability remains high...so dont anticipate much more than few/sct
-shra with little precip accum.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and thunderstorms blossoming across
the area this afternoon. Have tried to time TEMPOs to cover most
likely time. Additional convection possible this evening...so they
may need to be extended. Expect low stratus to develop again
overnight with any vsby restrictions limited mainly to showers. Only
a slow improvement after daybreak with convection likely again
Sunday. Wind direction should be S to SW through the period, apart
from thunderstorm outflows.
Outlook: Numerous, mainly afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected Sunday, with associated restrictions
likely. Chances of convection and restrictions diminish with drier
air moving into the area Monday and Tuesday.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% Med 75% High 81% High 84%
KGSP Med 65% Low 48% Med 77% Med 78%
KAVL High 97% Med 72% Med 75% Med 65%
KHKY Med 69% High 84% High 86% Med 65%
KGMU Low 57% Med 72% High 84% Med 76%
KAND High 100% High 82% High 90% Med 76%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWHHazardous weather outlook, May 11, 5:01 AM EST, 9 hours 20 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
601 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
There is a chance for thunderstorms approaching severe limits this
afternoon with the primary threat being strong wind gusts. Isolated
flash flooding is also possible from the heaviest thunderstorms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Thunderstorms will continue into Sunday, with the greatest chance for
severe weather Sunday afternoon as vertical wind shear increases with
the advance of an upper-level storm system. Damaging winds are again
the main threat, but some hail is possible, and a brief, isolated
tornado can not be ruled-out.
River flooding will also become a concern for flood prone rivers,
in response to extended periods of moderate to heavy rain.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 11, 9:44 AM EST, 4 hours 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1044 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019
GAZ010-NCZ062-111530-
Rabun GA-Macon NC-
1044 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN RABUN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM
EDT...
At 1043 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 6 miles southeast of Hiawassee, or 5 miles
northwest of Moccasin Creek State Park, moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Moccasin Creek State Park,
Black Rock Mountain State Park, Lake Burton and Otto.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3490 8363 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8355
3499 8355 3500 8348 3500 8352 3502 8352
3505 8356 3508 8338 3482 8331 3484 8358
3488 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 258DEG 20KT 3490 8366
RMSpecial weather statement, May 11, 11:31 AM EST, 2 hours 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1231 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
NCZ068-508-510-SCZ007-008-111715-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Eastern Polk NC-Cherokee SC-
Spartanburg SC-
1231 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...
At 1231 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles southwest of Forest City to 10 miles
south of Columbus, and moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Boiling Springs NC, Mayo, Chesnee, Campobello, Mooresboro, Cowpens
National Battlefield, Lake Bowen, Lattimore, Cliffside and Henrietta.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3532 8156 3506 8178 3509 8219 3527 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 273DEG 19KT 3530 8192 3510 8215
RM
Special weather statement, May 11, 12:17 PM EST, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
117 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
NCZ068-508-SCZ008-111800-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
117 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND NORTHERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...
At 116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles northwest of Gaffney, or 4 miles northeast
of Cowpens National Battlefield, moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Boiling Springs NC, Blacksburg, Patterson Springs,
Mooresboro, Earl, Cowpens National Battlefield, Grover, Lattimore and
Cliffside.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 8182 3529 8185 3532 8146 3510 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 273DEG 19KT 3518 8175
RM
Special weather statement, May 11, 1:04 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
204 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
NCZ068-070-SCZ009-111845-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-York SC-
204 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...GASTON
AND NORTH CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...
At 204 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Shelby, or near Kings Mountain, moving east at 30
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Kings Mountain, Mt Holly, Belmont, Bessemer City, South
Gastonia, Dallas, Stanley, Cramerton and Lowell.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3515 8104 3514 8105 3513 8105 3511 8103
3511 8104 3515 8139 3516 8137 3517 8141
3529 8140 3537 8104 3517 8100 3515 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 266DEG 25KT 3522 8137
RMSpecial weather statement, May 11, 1:54 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
254 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
SCZ007-012-013-111945-
Laurens SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
254 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...
At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Laurens, or 4 miles southeast of Gray Court, moving
northeast at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Union, Monarch Mill, Buffalo, Gray Court, Jonesville, Rose
Hill State Park, Enoree, Cross Keys and Cross Anchor.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3446 8206 3462 8216 3489 8166 3465 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 242DEG 26KT 3458 8204
KRENTZ
Special weather statement, May 11, 2:16 PM EST, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
316 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
NCZ070-071-SCZ009-111945-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
316 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...
At 316 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of York, or near Clover, moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Belmont, South Gastonia, Clover, Cramerton, Town Of Lake
Wylie, Lowell, Mcadenville, Steele Creek and Ranlo.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3507 8127 3519 8131 3532 8105 3507 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 255DEG 20KT 3512 8121
SGL