What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 17, 7:00 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 7:00 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonal temperatures and humid conditions will persist over the
next few days while unsettled weather returns ahead of a front
drifting down from the Great Lakes. Drier weather is expected at
the end of the week, but it might be short lived.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 pm: Scattered thunderstorms persist over the NC mtns and
just west of the CWA across north GA, while activity is considerably
more isolated across the rest of the forecast area. Nevertheless,
there remains quite a bit of untapped, moderate-to-strong
instability along the I-85 corridor, and CAMs as well as more
traditional short term guidance has been insistent that scattered
convection will blow up in this area during mid/late evening, Chance
pops will therefore be maintained across the forecast area through
the evening, with a continued chance for a pulse severe storm or
two.
As a mid-level synoptic wave currently over the Mississippi Valley
continues to move eastward, thunderstorm chances will be greater on
Tuesday. While wave weakens quite a bit over the next 24 hours,
there is plenty of moisture available and limited capping, so that
increasingly widespread thunder showers will be likely on Tuesday as
main PVA of the wave crosses over the region. Wind shear remains
weak, with convective instability moderate, giving some chance for
severe weather, primarily in the form of short-lived severe winds
from storm outflows. Precip totals today and tomorrow are highly
variable from place-to-place, depending on which areas directly
receive thunderstorms. Areal averages run around a quarter inch
today and a half inch tomorrow over the mountains, with lower
amounts elsewhere.
Low-level features change little over the next 36 hours as broad
high out in the Atlantic edges slowly eastward, with light
southwesterly surface winds that will keep humidity elevated and
temperatures a little above normal, with little change in day-to-day
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Monday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z
on Wednesday with a weakening upper shortwave moving over the fcst
area from the west. What's left of the feature will move off the
coast by late Wed. On Thurs, another upper shortwave will amplify
to our west and begin to move over the CWFA as the period ends late
Thursday. At the sfc, warm and moist SLY flow will be in place as
the period begins. A weak cold front will move thru the fcst area
on Wednesday and move offshore by Wed evening. The profiles behind
the front are marginally drier, but the change is modest at best.
With a lingering lee trof over the area on Wednesday, sfc winds may
become more WLY behind the front briefly, but they will revert back
to a more SWLY direction by Wed evening. On Thurs, a substantially
stronger and deeper low will develop south of the Great Lakes and
lift NE towards New England. This low will bring a more robust cold
front to our doorstep early Thurs and move it through the CWFA late
Thurs. In its wake, cooler and drier high pressure will spread over
the region to end the period. As for severe potential, the Thursday
fropa appears to be more of a threat. It's expected to move thru
the area during the peak heating window or just after it. In addition,
there will likely be more low to mid-lvl shear/helicity with this
front and drier air aloft. Thus, we will need to keep a close eye
on the fcst going forward. Temps will remain a few degrees above
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday: Starting at 12Z Friday with the strong
shortwave moving out over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from
the Mississippi Valley. Friday will be a dry day for almost
everybody under weak high pressure. The dry weather lasts at least a
few hours longer in the ECMWF into Saturday. A series of small,
mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are shown on the GFS model to
affect at least the mountains over the next several days. The EC is
more oriented to shortwave movement and the Saturday through Monday
night period is shown to be a buildup in activity leading to the
arrival of the shortwave Tuesday mainly over KY and TN. If the
activity is MCSs, those would be forming over the Plains States then
move towards us as they weaken. The highest CAPE values will remain
to the west of our region but 1500 to 2500 CAPE is forecast each
afternoon and early evening from the Mountains to the Upper Savannah
River Valley. Temperatures slightly above normal with Sunday being
the warmest day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection will remain possible at all
terminals through the evening, warranting some combo of VCTS or
temps for TSRA from about 01Z-04Z. Convection should diminish in
coverage after that time. Otherwise, abundant low level moisture
will create the potential for localized fog and perhaps low stratus
Tuesday morning, but guidance signals are mixed at best at this
point. For the time being, restrictions are limited to the mtn
valleys, with MVFR conditions forecast at KAVL. Restriction
potential is hinted at for other terminals, where a SCT015 has been
introduced. Otherwise, winds will be light S/SW overnight, then
increase out if the SW at 5-10 kts beginning late Tue morning.
Scattered to numerous convective coverage is expected Tue afternoon,
warranting Prob30s at all sites, with categorical -SHRA/VCTS carried
at KAVL, as coverage should be greatest over the mtns.
Outlook: Continued afternoon convection with possible flight
restrictions, mainly across the higher terrain, along with
increasing chances for morning valley fog/low stratus are expected
thru the week.
Confidence Table...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 99% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 93% High 94% High 100%
KAVL High 90% Med 72% High 95% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 96% High 95% High 93%
KGMU High 100% High 92% High 92% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 96% High 91% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/WJM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDLHazardous weather outlook, Jun 17, 4:12 PM EST, 4 hours 45 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-182115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
512 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia this evening, with better coverage
expected across the mountains and foothills. Gusty winds, small hail,
and cloud to ground lightning will be associated with these storms.
A few thunderstorms could become quite strong or even severe capable
of producing large hail and damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
JPT
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 17, 5:36 PM EST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
NCZ049-050-172315-
Yancey NC-Mitchell NC-
636 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND
NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...
At 636 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Burnsville, or 7 miles south of Banner Hill,
moving northeast at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Poplar, Buladean and Ramseytown.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
LAT...LON 3614 8218 3615 8215 3611 8213 3611 8209
3609 8208 3609 8209 3594 8238 3601 8247
3609 8240 3612 8236 3612 8233 3614 8229
3613 8227 3613 8225 3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 231DEG 10KT 3601 8240
RMSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 7:43 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
843 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
NCZ052-064-180115-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-
843 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...
At 843 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Brevard, or 5 miles north of Rosman, moving north at 15
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Rosman, Graveyard Fields, Looking Glass, Balsam Grove and
North Transylvania.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 8280 3518 8295 3538 8287 3533 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 199DEG 14KT 3521 8285
Carroll
Special weather statement, Jun 17, 7:53 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
853 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
GAZ010-017-018-180130-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
853 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN STEPHENS...HABERSHAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN RABUN COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...
At 853 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Clarkesville, or near Baldwin, moving north at 20
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto,
Lake Rabun, Lake Burton and Raoul.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3454 8362 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
3467 8365 3471 8364 3473 8362 3476 8363
3478 8366 3485 8350 3454 8327 3447 8341
3448 8347 3449 8354 3443 8362 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 198DEG 18KT 3452 8358
CarrollSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 8:27 PM EST, 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
927 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
NCZ052-064-065-180200-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC-
927 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT TRANSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...
At 927 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Brevard, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Etowah, Rosman, Graveyard Fields, Looking Glass, Mount
Pisgah, Horse Shoe, Balsam Grove, Cruso and Penrose.
Wind gusts up to 55 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3545 8278 3544 8278 3542 8274 3543 8273
3534 8253 3510 8275 3519 8294 3547 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 209DEG 15KT 3522 8281
CarrollSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 8:35 PM EST, 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-180200-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS...
HABERSHAM...RABUN AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
EDT...
At 935 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Clarkesville, moving northeast at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Clarkesville, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky Valley,
Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lake Burton and Lakemont.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3482 8365 3484 8366 3488 8366 3491 8363
3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8355 3496 8355
3499 8331 3465 8329 3456 8363 3460 8365
3462 8364 3466 8366 3468 8364 3471 8364
3473 8362 3476 8363 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 217DEG 9KT 3468 8349
CarrollSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 8:51 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
951 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
GAZ010-NCZ063-064-SCZ001-002-180215-
Rabun GA-Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
951 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...
SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS AND NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...
At 951 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Pickens, or over Lake Jocassee, moving northeast
at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Salem, Lake Toxaway, Jocassee Gorges, Lake Jocassee, Devils
Fork State Park, Gorges State Park, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Oconee
State Park and Lake Keowee.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3500 8313 3500 8311 3502 8311 3520 8294
3509 8273 3508 8274 3508 8275 3507 8275
3507 8277 3505 8276 3473 8302 3486 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 217DEG 9KT 3497 8293
Carroll