A weak surface boundary in advance of an approaching cold front triggered a cluster of thunderstorms across northwest North Carolina. A few of these storms reached severe thresholds and causing tree damage in Surry and Yadkin counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A weak surface boundary in advance of an approaching cold front triggered a cluster of thunderstorms across northwest North Carolina. A few of these storms reached severe thresholds and causing tree damage in Surry and Yadkin counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 11:31 AM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1231 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A persistent weather pattern continues today. On Sunday night and Monday a wavy cold front will drop south through the Mid Atlantic region. High pressure builds south down the Appalachians Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday... Moisture convergence boundary maxed out across the southern Appalachians at lunch time, with area of storms moving across the NC High Country into the foothills, with another scattered area in the Mountain Empire and across the Alleghanys. However, deep convection mainly limited to the south, but expect storms to develop or move east out of the mountains this afternoon. Upper flow out of the wnw should limit coverage east of the Blue Ridge at times, but still expecting a good coverage on radar during the afternoon. As has been the case the last couple of days, not everyone will see rain, but those who do could get a quick inch or two under heavy storms. Still not seeing enough organization or signals to warrant a flash flood watch, but appears the NC mountains are getting more primed in that direction if more storms move in from TN. Temps should reach the lower 90s east of the foothills with 80s elsewhere, with heat indices approaching 100 across portions of the piedmont. Previous early morning discussion... Nightime Microphysics RGB satellite images show fog and stratus in the valleys of the central Appalachians as mid and high clouds dissipate and move into eastern Virginia. Will be adding patchy dense fog in the New and Greenbrier River valleys where surface observations were reporting visibility of one half mile or less. Subtle short wave over the Pennsylvania/West Virginia border will continue to drift east today with the trough axis into the eastern half of Virginia by the time of peak heating and instability. Mean flow changes to west-northwest so coverage of thunderstorms in the afternoon may not be as extensive as past couple of days. Enough westerly component to the low level winds to limit thunderstorms in the foothills of Virginia and North Carolina. Will be going with persistence for highs today and lows tonight. Will also add fog in for overnight in the mountain valleys and where the probability for thunderstorms is highest during the afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... A southeast-sagging surface trough/cool front, in conjunction with potentially convectively-induced weak shortwaves aloft from upstream MCS activity in broader WNW flow aloft, will serve as a focus for greater thunderstorm coverage into Sunday. This front looks to trudge into the northern/central Carolinas by late in the day before stalling near this general area Monday. Little significant change in air mass behind this surface front, though an easterly wind component sets up as ridging builds into the northern mid-Atlantic region Monday. These modest low-level easterlies draw back moisture westward upslope against the central Appalachians - likely contributing to widespread clouds and at least showers for Monday, though thunderstorm chances are lessened by weak instability. Though still some limited chances for showers across our southern and southwestern counties, weak subsidence aloft and surface ridging building into the VA Piedmont may lead to somewhat drier conditions by Tuesday. Heavy rain capable of localized areal/flash flooding, and at least isolated pulse strong thunderstorms capable of localized wind damage from wet microbursts, should continue to be the main hazards we're watching for Sunday. Still weak, but somewhat stronger mid- /upper-level winds may encourage slightly better storm motions but still carried heavy rain wording in the zone forecast areawide Sunday. These trends indicated to various extent in available high- resolution guidance for Sunday, though CAMs notoriously struggle in weakly-forced large-scale settings like we've been in. Rainfall intensity/rain-rates should be more gradual and less intense moving into Monday, though some localized hydro problems could still arise with upslope-enhanced rain near the Blue Ridge and in areas that have received antecedent heavy rains. Should see a SW-NE oriented area of showers/storms Friday progress slowly southeast along the frontal zone, likely to capitalize on tall, skinny and weak/moderate CAPE profiles during the mid- afternoon to mid-evening. Monday has a similar look to something of a wedge pattern with lots of clouds and widespread rains with temperatures reduced in these conditions. Any thunder may be more embedded in more persistent bands and overall coverage of storms probably no better than isolated given marginal/weak instability. As rains end Monday night, may have some areas of fog around with wet ground but didn't place in the grids at this point. For Tuesday, kept PoPs at Chance levels from Southside to the Blue Ridge escarpment, then trailing back up along and west of I-77. Greater instability Tuesday is generally west of our area into eastern KY/eastern TN. Still carried slight chance PoP for areas northeast of I-77, but Tuesday on the whole looks dry for these areas. Still a pretty warm and humid day for Sunday with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Though there's not much air mass change for Monday behind the front boundary, it'll be somewhat cooler - in the 70s to lower 80s with little if any daytime sun - but still on the muggy side. Temperatures should recover back into the mid 80s in the VA Piedmont into the southern Shenandoah and Roanoke Valleys, but will run in the upper 70s to low 80s across the NC foothills/southern Blue Ridge and along/southwest of I-77. Forecast confidence is overall moderate. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Model trends still show some degree of mid level drying behind this Sunday/Monday wave but no change in low level moisture and still enough instability for diurnal showers/thunderstorms to develop each day at least through Thursday and perhaps through Friday as well. It does look like a stronger upper wave more associated with the northern stream, vs convectively induced, could sweep across the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. Thursday into Friday which could add further to the drying. Will this wave have enough influence to enhance activity ahead of it and this far south, which is most likely to be Thursday, and then suppress activity behind it for most likely next Friday? Or will it have much influence on temperatures? Hard to say, but model trends in general have been to downplay the degree of drying and decreased convective coverage during the week and so for now will keep at least chance PoPs going all next week, although a little lower for Friday compared to Tues through Thurs. Temperatures will remain about the same and perhaps just a bit below seasonal values, with lots of 80s across the region, maybe sneaking into the low 90s again in parts of the Piedmont by later in the week. Finally, there are some indications in medium range models of tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico by some time mid next week along a weak frontal boundary, especially with the ECMWF model. This will need to be monitored of course, and even though the previous run of the ECMWF suggested this could eventually get pulled up the spine of the Appalachians, that scenario currently looks unlikely given many solutions from other models and their ensemble members. If there is to be any impact at all in our region it would be well over a week away, if at all. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1225 PM EDT Saturday... Similar to the last two days, will see storms across the mountains early, then shifting to the foothills/piedmont through the afternoon. Coverage again will not be organized or high enough to have predominant thunderstorms in the tafs, but will have tempo groups at a few taf sites, namely LYH and BLF and perhaps LWB where radar/meso model trends favor a better chance of storms here. Expect VFR outside of the storms, and sub-MVFR potential in storms. MVFR to IFR fog and stratus is expected to develop again after midnight. Locations that have rain in the afternoon and evening will have a higher probability of getting IFR to LIFR conditions overnight. Confidence is above average for thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening. Confidence is average for location of storms today. Confidence is lower on how low cigs/vsbys get tonight, and when they lift Sunday. Looking at showers/storms increasing in coverage by end of the taf period, especially north of a BLF-LYH line. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again Sunday afternoon and evening. Storms will be associated with MVFR/IFR visibilities due to heavy rain, cloud bases favoring VFR. Aside from the convective threat, some late night/early morning fog/stratus is possible Sunday night depending on degree of overnight clearing, especially in mountain valleys. Monday through Wednesday remains unsettled with the passage of a wavy cold front from the north. Pattern is beginning to resemble a weak wedge with rain and MVFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 548 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-071000- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 548 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be slow moving. This may cause localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms Sunday may produce locally heavy rain that results in flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html><!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html><!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:37 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down by thunderstorm winds near the intersection of Haystack Road and Luffman Road.
A tree was blown down by thunderstorm winds onto Cedar Creek Road near U.S. Highway 21.
Several trees were reported down in the area around Jonesville as a result of thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 846964, 846966, 846968.