Flash Flooding and Flooding in Ohio, July 6, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
325 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this evening into tonight.
There will be some lingering thunderstorms into Sunday before
high pressure and dry conditions move in for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop into the
evening hours as a cold front approaches and moves through the
region. The environment is not that supportive of widespread
severe weather with DCAPE values only around 600 to 700. Cannot
rule out an isolated strong to severe storm where damaging winds
would be the primary threat. In addition, some heavy rain will
be likely and could lead to isolated flooding concerns.

Activity will decrease late in the overnight, however models are
indicating residual moisture and have stratus developing across
the region. Will have to watch for some fog potential in areas
that receive heavy rain today.

There are some heat index values in the middle to upper 90s and
a few 100s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Additional precipitation is expected to develop during the day
on Sunday especially across southern and southeastern portions
of the area. There is some instability as well and therefore
have thunder mention in the forecast. Precipitation will taper
off Sunday evening leaving dry conditions by the end of the
short term.

Sunday will be a little cooler with high temperatures in the low
to middle 80s. Temperatures Sunday night are expected to drop
down into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday, a mid-level ridge will develop across the
Ohio Valley as surface high pressure centers itself over the Great
Lakes. Result should be dry and slightly less humid conditions.
Latest GFS does indicate light qpf up the Scioto Valley on Tuesday,
but feel GFS is returning moisture too quickly and solution was
discounted.

Ridge flattens out by Wednesday as troughing moves into the Upper
Midwest. Models show agreement/consistency with moisture return and
some instability by Wednesday, therefore a chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns to the forecast. Will continue chance of
convection Wednesday night with the approach of a cold front, which
is progged to move through on Thursday.

Behind the front, Friday and Saturday both look dry as high pressure
builds in.

The warmest day of the long term looks to be on Wednesday ahead of
the cold front, with upper 80s to lower 90s across the CWA.
Otherwise, temperatures will generally favor near climatology for
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around this
afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches and moves
through the region. Activity will decrease for second half of
the night, however then some fog will be possible. In addition
moisture from the front hangs around and therefore expect some
stratus development as well that will last into Sunday daytime
morning hours. Additional showers and some thunderstorms will
develop during the day on Sunday. Handled this for now with a
VCSH mention.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday. Thunderstorms
are possible again on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-060-061-071930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Preble-Montgomery-
330 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be present into the evening hours. These storms
will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, which may lead to
flash flooding. A few storms may also produce strong to severe wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ052>056-062>065-070>074-077>082-088-
071930-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
330 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio,
Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be present into the evening hours. These storms
will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, which may lead to
flash flooding. A few storms may also produce strong to severe wind
gusts.

Heat index values will be in the middle to upper 90s into the early
evening hours. A few heat index values around 100 will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.