Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across central North Carolina in a moderately unstable environment ahead of an approaching cold front. A strengthening mid-level shortwave increased shear in the low and middle layers of the atmosphere and resulted in strong low-level lapse rates.
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The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across central North Carolina in a moderately unstable environment ahead of an approaching cold front. A strengthening mid-level shortwave increased shear in the low and middle layers of the atmosphere and resulted in strong low-level lapse rates. Consequently, several of the storms that developed during the afternoon and evening hours became severe, producing locally severe damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 10:15 AM EST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1115 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach from the northwest today, and cross central NC late tonight through Thursday morning. Another weak cold front will cross our region late Friday and Friday night. Weak high pressure will build into the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Wednesday... Minor tweaks for the mid morning update this morning to better match in-situ observations. Also some minor adjustment to the POP forecast this afternoon, highlighting the two possible primary waves of convection. The first will likely ignite between 12pm - 2pm across the central and eastern Piedmont as a shortwave continues east through the area. The second, likely more potent, will arrive later tonight, crossing central NC between 6pm - Midnight, which should have greater coverage and intensity in terms of Tstorms. Some uncertainty with the second wave, as earlier convection could help stabilize areas along and east of US-1. Previous discussion issued at 357 AM... In the wake of the mid level s/w, expect strong heating this morning though early afternoon, pushing temperatures into the 90-95 degree range. This heating will lead to a moderately unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values by mid-late afternoon 1200-1800 J/kg. The approach of another s/w from the NW will strengthen the mid flow, resulting in 0-6km shear values of 25-30kts by late in the day (pretty impressive for this time of year). This s/w will also be accompanied by mid level lapse rates between 6-6.5 degree C. The strong heating and sfc dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 degrees will yield low level lapse rates in the 9-10 deg C/km range. All these parameters suggest a threat for strong/locally severe storms with damaging wind gust potential. Would not be surprised to see a few wind gusts around 65 mph. Also, curved hodographs across the eastern Piedmont, the Sandhills, and the Coastal Plain suggest the potential for a few supercells, with the SPC Supercell composite as high as 5 over the Coastal Plain and Sandhills at 00Z. While the freezing level is quite high around 14000ft, strong/persistent updrafts could result in marginally large hail as well. Model timing has slowed a bit from Tuesday; thus, appears the greatest threat for strong/severe storms may hold off until 5 PM or closer to sunset, especially across the Sandhills and the Coastal Plain. Scattered convection will occur this evening, tapering off from the NW later this evening into the overnight hours. Partial clearing overnight over the Piedmont may lead to the development of patchy fog with locally dense fog possible. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1115 AM Wednesday... A shower or two may linger across the southeastern zones around sunrise on Thursday as the remnant cold front exits east off the Carolina Coastline. In its wake, surface subsidence on the backside of the departing upper-trough should allow for a much quieter weather period, with any chance of showers and thunder remaining displaced east of I-95. Otherwise, a near to slightly above normal temperature forecast, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to middle 90s under mostly clear skies and modest northwesterly flow. Dewpoint temperatures should be appreciably lower once mixing is allowed mid morning, adding a bit more of a pleasant feel to the warm temperatures. Overnight lows will settle into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 AM Wednesday... The long-standing subtropical ridge centered over the srn Rockies will migrate ewd across the srn Plains and lwr MS Valley through the end of the week, then remain there through early next week. That small shift in the large scale pattern will cause the similarly-long- standing trough over the ern US to (finally) move offshore, with ensuing generally nwly to wnwly flow aloft across NC through the forecast period. At the surface, an Appalachian-lee trough will precede a cold front --and related chance of showers and storms-- forecast to settle swd across the srn middle Atlantic states (VA/NC) late Fri through early Sat. That front is forecast to stall over srn NC/nrn SC by Sat afternoon, with the coolest day of the forecast period in cntl NC on Sat, after which time it should dissipate amidst developing return flow around high pressure near Bermuda. The Appalachian-lee trough will then strengthen, on the wrn periphery of the Bermuda ridge -- with increasingly hot conditions and near climo probabilities of diurnal convection-- Sun through Tue. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 748 AM Wednesday... There is a high probability that VFR parameters will prevail at the TAF sites across central NC through 18Z today. The exception will be pockets of MVFR/IFR fog, and IFR/LIFR ceilings through 13Z, mainly in vicinity of KFAY, KRWI, and possibly KRDU. Later today, a weak cold front interacting with an unstable air mass will trigger scattered thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong. In vicinity of the heavier showers, expect MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings, with sfc wind gusts 30-40kts possible. This convective threat appears highest between 20Z and 03Z, though a few storms could occur as early as 18Z across the northern Piedmont. The weak sfc cold front will enter the western Piedmont after midnight, then drift ewd overnight through Thursday morning across the remainder of central NC. In the wake of the front, west- northwest flow will usher a drier and more stable air mass. This suggest a high likelihood of VFR parameters later Thu through Friday. Another weak cold front will cross central NC late Friday into Friday night. Currently appears that any showers or storms will be isolated as convergence is weak and moisture appears too limited to support scattered coverage. High pressure will build into central NC from the NW Saturday, and maintain its presence into Sunday, ushering a period of VFR conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...JJM/WSS SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...WSS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 416 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081000- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 416 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon through the evening hours. The main severe weather hazards will be damaging wind gusts 60 to 65 mph, along with marginally large hail. At this time, the severe weather threat appears greatest between 4 PM and 8 PM in the northwest Piedmont including the Triad region, and between 6 PM and 11 PM across the remainder of central North Carolina. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed across central NC late this afternoon through this evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1217 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
NCZ022>024-038>040-071730-
Guilford NC-Chatham NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-Orange NC-
1217 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALAMANCE...SOUTHEASTERN
DAVIDSON...ORANGE...RANDOLPH...GUILFORD AND NORTHWESTERN CHATHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...
At 1216 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Elon to 9 miles east
of High Rock Lake. Movement was east at 20 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.
Heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Asheboro, Graham, Hillsborough,
Randleman, Siler City, North Carolina Zoo and Thomasville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.
Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 7969 3624 7895 3584 7916 3551 7957
3551 8008 3556 8021 3558 8021 3565 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 268DEG 17KT 3611 7955 3562 8013
77The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:43 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down along a swath from Glen Raven to Graham in Alamance county. One tree fell along Gibsonville Ossipee Road.
A couple of large trees were blown down along a swath from east of Rocky Mount to near Kingsboro. Both trees fell onto power lines, one of which took out multiple power poles and power lines, the other caught fire as a result of contact with the power lines.
A few trees were blown down along a swath extending from Junior Order Home Road near Lexington to the intersection of Allred Road and Jerusalem Road near Gordonton. This includes a tree blown down on Pine Lodge Road near Highway 8, south of Lexington.
Multiple trees were blown down onto power lines along Holly Pond Road near Villanow Drive.
One tree was blown down onto a residence at 113 Lucky Ribbon Lane in Twelve Oaks.
One tree was blown down onto power lines and blocking both lanes of Kelly Road near the intersection with Apex Barbecue Road.
Several trees and power lines were blown down along Kelly Road, three of which were near the intersection with Holland Road.
A couple of trees were blown down along a swath parallel to Holly Springs Road from the intersection of Ten Ten Road and Megawood Court to the intersection of Holly Springs Road and Birkhaven Drive.
Several trees were blown down along US-70 between Garner and Clayton.
One tree was blown down onto power lines near the intersection of Bethlehem Road and Interstate 87, resulting in power outages.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 851575, 851576, 851577, 851578, 851579, 851580, 851581, 851582, 851583, 851584.