An upper level wave moved through portions of Central New York and Southern Catskills during the afternoon of the 7th. This sparked severe thunderstorms in Sullivan County, NY.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
An upper level wave moved through portions of Central New York and Southern Catskills during the afternoon of the 7th. This sparked severe thunderstorms in Sullivan County, NY.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 12:49 PM EST, 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances will continue to move through the region this afternoon, followed by an eventual cold front on Thursday. This along with a warm humid atmosphere will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may contain locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. High pressure builds back in by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 10 AM Update... Water vapor and radar mosaic imagery show two convective waves moving northeast which will affect the weather in the near term in NY/PA. The first wave was over northern NY with the second wave over WV. The mesosector visible shows plenty of insolation which was breaking out scattered to broken cumulus already. The heating, modest low-level moisture and fairly chilly mid level temperatures of -10 to -11C at 500 mb will lead to mixed layer CAPEs topping 1000 J/kg most areas with both convective waves. Hence we expect both waves to fire up convection. The shear was marginal in the deep layer 0-6 km. But, the 0-3 km shear was more significant running close to 30 knots in our eastern counties close to where the SPC slight risk is from the Upper Mohawk to the Catskills/Poconos. We concur with this latest outlook and the potential for an isolated tornado in the upper Mohawk valley. UCA soundings show helicities 0-3 km close to 150 m2/s2. It is possible that a few low-topped supercells form in this general area. But the main threat will be locally high winds and hail. The western portion of our forecast area mainly west of I-81 is seeing more clouds and is not expected to destablized as much. Additionally shear is weaker. CAMs shows less convection firing in this area and hence POPs are lower this afternoon. The hi resolution CAMs di fire up decent convection in NC NY between 16z and 20z from the first convective wave and then another round from the Catskills to Poconos between 20z and 00z this evening with the next wave approaching from WV. Have made minor adjustments to previous forecasts. We feel our best windows for severe will be 16z to 20z in NC NY and 20z-00z from the Catskills to most of northeast PA especially Poconos. 4 AM Update... Main concern in the near term continues to be prospects for severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall today. There could also be gusty thunderstorms in parts of Central New York late in the day Thursday, arriving from the west. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of our area, generally along to especially east of Interstate 81, into a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today. Though there are a number of smaller ripples which could complicate the set up, the primary driver of severe potential be a midlevel low now spinning its way into far western New York and the boundary it will send through our region. In response to the low and associated upper wave, deep 0-6km shear will enhance to 20-35 knots while also allowing for some near surface turning in direction from cyclonic flow ahead of the low. Thus while pockets of damaging winds are the main concern, if enough instability can be realized then strongest storm cores could yield some hail, and even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Working against this potential, will be the earlier timing of the wave and before that pre-frontal ripples which may hinder heating. Towards the Poconos-Catskills, mean Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) output reaches around 2000 J/kg with lesser amounts the further northwest one goes. Actually realizing this instability will serve as the crux of whether or not severe convection occurs. It will be a heads up day, especially east of I-81, yet the threat is conditional on that daytime heating and also timing of that boundary. Some models suggest that the boundary will cruise quickly enough through to which convection will only just get started while exiting the area; that would largely spare most of the region from impacts. As hinted at above, for our region the Poconos-Catskills have the somewhat higher chance of seeing strong convection compared to points further northwest. Meanwhile, 1.6 to 1.9 inch precipitable water (Pwat) values exist ahead of this wave. The good thing is that convective cells will tend to be progressive, however, many parts of the area (especially Twin Tiers southward) got pockets of heavy rain Tuesday. Thus high rainfall rates offered by elevated Pwats as well as a warm cloud layer well past 10 kft could lead at least to urban/roadway ponding, and perhaps even isolated flash flooding if a heavy cell dumps on top of where heavy rain already occurred before and/or the boundary develops kinks in the mesoscale. This could lead to a spot or two where cell tracks overlap. For example, the boundary may hang up for a time late afternoon-early evening in Wyoming Valley-Poconos-Southern Catskills area. As with the severe threat, there is some possibility that the wave carries through early and spares the region from impacts, but we will have to watch things closely. Ridging quiets things down later tonight through much of Thursday. However, a well marked wave will then drop into the Central Great Lakes in the afternoon, initiating new convection upwind of our region. This convection will then carry into our area while though with waning energy from loss of diurnal heating late afternoon-early evening. Unidirectional shear will actually be increased more, around cyclonic flow of the negatively tilting upper trough extending out of Canada. This along a somewhat drier column promoting mixing down of wind, could result in the storms being rather gusty. Central Southern Tier-Finger Lakes-Syracuse areas have the better chances of convection reaching their locations, versus points further southeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the potential for lingering showers and storms Thursday evening...and very low chances for afternoon showers Friday and Saturday. A trailing, weak upper level wave will rotate through the area behind a departing cold front later in the day Thursday...which may have enough forcing to trigger a few additional showers and storms into the evening hours. Any convection that does form should be relatively weak due to most of the deep layer moisture shifting well to the east. The dry air advecting in from the nw will likely dominate later Thursday night...and allow most of the precip to come to an end. A cooler and drier air mass will move into the area Friday and Saturday, but the large scale flow will remain cyclonic with additional embedded short waves rotating through nrn NY...which may set off a few isolated very weak convective rain showers during the afternoon. No significant weather is expected during this time. The main difference this weekend will be the noticeably cooler temperatures. Highs only into the 70s for most of the area...with the exception of the Wyoming Valley where lower 80s are possible Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions remain relatively dry through most of the weekend with the upper trough pattern shifting to the east and rising heights aloft bringing in some large scale suppression through at least most of the day Sunday. Temperatures begin to climb back into the upper 70s and lower 80s Sunday afternoon. The next upper wave begins to move in from the NW late Sunday night with low chances for rain showers lingering Monday into Tuesday. There are still a number of uncertainties with respect to timing and location with this next system, so will keep with low chances for rain showers going into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Radar shows scattered showers and a few thunderstorms increasing over central NY and northeast PA. As per our convection allowing models the best chance for thunderstorms will be at KSYR, KRME, and KAVP. All these terminals will see at least MVFR with a small chance for brief IFR. Added tempo groups 19z to 22-23z for TSRA in these terminals. All TAFS are basically VFR with MVFR coniditions at times for the afternoon in showers (or thunderstorms in above mentioned stations). Then for tonight we expect IFR in low clouds KRME, KBGM and VLIFR at KELM late tonight in FG. Conditions will improve to VFR all terminals by 14z to 15z. Winds will be light southerly this afternoon, nearly calm tonight and southwest 5-10 knots late Thursday morning. Outlook... Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially late afternoon- evening with best chances KSYR-KRME-KITH. Depending on where rain falls, moisture may cause overnight-early morning restrictions as well. Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...MDP/DJN NEAR TERM...MDP/DJN SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...DJN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 221 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-081830- Chenango-Otsego-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne- Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 221 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-055-PAZ038-081830- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Tioga- Bradford- 221 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pass through the area this afternoon. A few storms could contain gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1241 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 NYZ057-062-PAZ040-071715- Sullivan NY-Delaware NY-Northern Wayne PA- 1241 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE... NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT... At 1240 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Rutledgedale, or 14 miles northeast of Honesdale, moving northeast at 20 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Rockland, Callicoon, Stalker, Hazel, Livingston Manor, Rutledgedale, Roscoe, Peabrook, Hankins and Callicoon Center. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. LAT...LON 4169 7517 4175 7525 4203 7508 4190 7481 TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 214DEG 20KT 4177 7515 Kistner
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 108 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 NYZ045-046-071745- Otsego NY-Chenango NY- 108 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO AND EAST CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT... At 108 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Mt Upton, or 8 miles southeast of Norwich, moving northeast at 20 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... New Lisbon, Morris, Gilbertsville, West End, Lathams Corners and South New Berlin. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. LAT...LON 4242 7544 4247 7548 4263 7518 4247 7508 TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 236DEG 18KT 4246 7539 Kistner
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
122 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
NYZ057-062-071745-
Sullivan NY-Delaware NY-
122 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE AND
NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...
At 122 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roscoe, or 11 miles northwest of Liberty, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Rockland, Hazel, Livingston Manor, Willowemoc, Roscoe, Callicoon
Center, Shandelee, Waneta Lake, Anderson and Little Pond Campground.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 4182 7501 4189 7505 4208 7473 4205 7471
4202 7478 4197 7466 4189 7461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 238DEG 20KT 4188 7495
KistnerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
150 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
NYZ037-071815-
Southern Oneida NY-
150 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...EAST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM EDT...
At 150 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Utica, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Utica, Deerfield, Whitesboro, New York Mills, Yorkville, New
Hartford, Oriskany, Barnveld, Trenton Falls and Maynard.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.
&&
LAT...LON 4326 7516 4325 7515 4326 7514 4324 7512
4323 7507 4314 7514 4306 7522 4305 7526
4316 7537 4328 7516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 229DEG 20KT 4312 7524
ButtsThe Binghamton radar (KBGM), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:37 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong thunderstorm winds brought down multiple trees along Route 55 near Airport Road.
Strong thunderstorm winds brought down multiple trees and wires near 4028 State Route 55 near Camp Toras. Some buildings were also damaged.
Strong thunderstorm winds brought down trees and wires, blocking the roadway near 775 J G Brender Highway.
Strong thunderstorm winds brought down trees and wires on Crumley Vab Vactor Road between Fraser Road and Gale Road.
Strong thunderstorm winds brought down a tree on a roof of a house near 54 Plank Road.
Strong thunderstorm winds brought down wires near 394 Route 17B.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 854268, 854263, 854264, 854265, 854266, 854267.