An isolated thunderstorm developed out of a very stagnant, warm, and humid air mass. This allowed for a few of the stronger storms to produce isolated wind damage.
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The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An isolated thunderstorm developed out of a very stagnant, warm, and humid air mass. This allowed for a few of the stronger storms to produce isolated wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 2:03 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 303 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper-level disturbance over the Carolinas will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Monday east of the Blue Ridge. Weak ridge will lead to relatively drier conditions on Tuesday, ahead of another frontal system to affect the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 256 PM EDT Sunday... This afternoon, main axis of convection is lined up from southwest NC to eastern VA along/north of a front and higher theta-e air. Weak low level convergence across our mountains from NC to southside VA allowing for isolated coverage at the moment. Vis satellite shows litte or no development in the cu field further north into western VA and WV and confidence is low that development of storms will occur, so cut back pops here. There is another area of storms across southern KY into the Cumberland Plateau of TN. The convection mentioned above is centered around a strong vort over Georgia, and another vort moving across western TN. Models show the one over Georgia moving slowly northeast into central NC overnight while the TN one shifts to the NC mountains. So as we head through the afternoon into the evening activity may increase south of the VA/NC border, with any outflow boundaries allowing for development east or northeast. Still confidence is low on pops along and northwest of the I-81 corridor so will keep them nil to slight chance into tonight, with 30-45 pops from the NC mountains into the Triad. Some of the high-res models linger showers overnight in the piedmont and given progged upper support and low level moisture in place, will leave isolated threat through Monday morning. Fog appears likely again in the mountains, as should expect some clearing, but since we have some mid and high clouds from storms, most of the fog will be light, vsbys 3-5 miles. Monday, axis of trough at 5h will be centered over the foothills. Another wave shifts across NC in the afternoon, and backing with low level moisture converge appears enough to have high chance pops east of the mountains, but lower in the west as drier air starts to funnel in. Temps will drop to the lower 60s in the mountains tonight with upper 60s to around 70 east. Monday highs tricky depending on how quick convection fires up, but will keep mid 70s to lower 80s across the west, to mid 80s east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Primary feature aloft will continue to be a longwave trough with axis initially just west of the Appalachians. A stronger shortwave rounding the trough from the upper Midwest/lower Ohio Valley Wednesday will help kick the mean longwave trough axis east of our area by late Wednesday night. Leftover, residual showers or storms east of the Blue Ridge from Monday afternoon will shift east or fizzle entirely towards midnight for the Monday overnight hours. Into Tuesday, weak shortwave ridging should result in less afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage - something closer to isolated, and mainly along or within a few miles either side of the Blue Ridge. Any showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday will also dissipate in coverage shortly after sunset. Guidance continues to point to Wednesday being a rather active day, with a good likelihood of scattered to numerous thunderstorms shifting eastward from the mountains into the Piedmont. A shortwave trough/vort max and surface cold front will help augment orographic ascent and lead to increased thunderstorm coverage by afternoon. BUFKIT soundings show a plume of higher mid-level instability (mid-level lapse rates between 6-6.5 C/km) that contribute to CAPEs for a most- unstable parcel on the GFS on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg. Also, low and mid-level flow fields improve by afternoon to bring effective shear values to around 30 kts, generally higher west of the Blue Ridge. Soundings also show steep low-level lapse rates potentially indicative of sizable downdraft CAPE values. While not necessarily organized severe, and exact timing is still in some question...I do think we'll be looking at scattered strong to severe storms Wednesday given the forcing, instability and higher than typical bulk shear, capable of localized damaging winds and hail given the relatively more steep mid-level lapse rates for a typical summer air mass. While possible, flooding looks like less of an overall threat given the quicker storm motions. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Temps on the whole are near or just above early-August climatology; highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the low-mid 60s. Forecast confidence is moderate to high for this period; closer to moderate on the thunderstorm threat Wednesday due to small differences in timing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Looks like a break in thunderstorm activity on Thursday, stuck between the system that looks to affect the region on Wednesday and the next cold front and vort max in northwest flow to affect the region Friday. Greater storm chances as a weak trough progresses in the northwest flow into the mid-Atlantic/Appalachians Friday, though still some question on how much instability and timing the trough through that renders confidence in hazards on the low side. Front looks to get hung up as it moves southeastward into North Carolina, so Saturday also looks unsettled with rain/storm chances. Toward Sunday into early next week, high pressure builds in from the northwest which could allow for somewhat lower humidity levels. Overall, temperatures look to trend close to early-August climatology. Forecast confidence is moderate for this period. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 105 PM EDT Sunday... Look for mostly VFR conditions through the afternoon/evening outside of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms that should be mostly confined to areas east/south of a lee trough near the Blue Ridge. For now, have kept VCTS out of tafs due to isolated coverage, though KDAN would have the best chance of seeing convection nearby. Will amend if needed. VFR conditions should continue through the midnight hour, then fog will begin to develop once again. With moisture beginning to return more to the northern areas, fog may begin a bit sooner and last longer tonight than the past couple of mornings. Thus, have already included LIFR conditions for KBCB and KLWB, but left the other sites MVFR or better for now. Winds will be variable and light. Confidence is medium on all elements. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Scattered showers and thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR ceilings can be expected Monday under a passing upper disturbance with coverage becoming less by Tuesday in its wake. This pattern will also result in MVFR or lower clouds and MVFR to IFR/LIFR in early morning fog due to moist low levels, especially at night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday ahead of the next cold front before seeing more in the way of VFR Thursday as this boundary stalls out just north of the area. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...AL/RAB NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...AL AVIATION...RAB/WP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-051915- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Gusty to locally damaging winds capable of scattered tree and powerline damage, along with hail will be the main thunderstorm hazards. Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 126 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:50 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees were blown down by thunderstorm wind gusts near Wilkesboro. A car was damaged when it hit a downed tree near the intersection of Curtis Bridge Road and Woodlawn Boulevard. A large white oak tree was also blown down at the east end of Greenbrier Lane near Woodlawn Boulevard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848289.