Wildfire in Nevada, August 4 to 13, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
249 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Four Corners high pressure will provide hot and dry
weather across northern and central Nevada on Monday and Tuesday
with valley highs in the 90s to around 100 degrees. A Pacific
Northwest upper trough and frontal system will provide the next
best chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
followed by breezy and a bit cooler conditions Friday into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Sunday evening through Tuesday.
A few isolated dry to marginally wet thunderstorms will be
possible this Sunday late afternoon and evening in northern and
eastern Elko as well as eastern White Pine counties. Otherwise,
the Four Corners high will slip a little deeper into Arizona
ensuring hot/dry, and essentially storm- free weather will
prevail across northern and central Nevada on Monday and Tuesday.
Look for valley temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees both
days while south to southwest breezes gust into the 20 to 25 mph
range in some areas. Nighttime lows will cool to comfortable
levels in the upper 40s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday.
The 500 mb ridge begins to move eastward some at the start of the
long term period, as an upper low in the Pacific starts to press
in. A boundary slowly moving through Nevada from Wednesday evening
through Thursday evening looks to provide initiation of
convection both days, though the tropical moisture feed does not
look that impressive so the likelihood would be towards dry
thunderstorms. The GFS has been trending a little more moist with
every run so there is the outside chance that dry thunderstorms
could end up being a bit higher in coverage.

Global models and ensembles in pretty good agreement that the low
will eject northeastward beginning Friday which will provide
Nevada with dry air and breezy conditions as the gradient
tightens, and by Sunday Nevada would be in a lighter zonal flow. A
general cooling trend will take place in the long term, with many
valleys a bit below normal in the 80's by the weekend with some
pretty widespread lows on Saturday night in the 40's and possibly
even some upper 30's in coldest valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through Monday afternoon.

Note: KBAM AMD NOT SKED due to missing clouds/cigs.
KTPH AMD NOT SKED due to missing observations. Obs for KTPH are
available via phone but a continuous weather watch is not
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A few isolated dry thunderstorms are expected
this Sunday late afternoon and evening over eastern portions of Elko
and White Pine counties (FWZ 469, 470, and 455) while minimum RHs
will be critical in valley locations of all zones with a few winds gusts
into the 20 to 25 mph range.

Monday and Tuesday will be hot and dry and essentially storm-free
with valley temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees. Although
south to southwest breezes are forecast to remain below RFW criteria
minimum RHs will reach critical levels from 10 to 15 percent.

Fire weather concerns regarding lightning strikes will increase
by midweek as isolated to scattered dry and wet thunderstorms will
be possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as a Pacific
Northwest upper trough and frontal system impact the region. Breezy
and a little cooler conditions are expected to follow Friday into
next weekend.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

95/90/90/95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
651 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019

NVZ033-050215-
Southeastern Elko County-
651 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

At 650 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
West Wendover, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Elko
County.

LAT...LON 4074 11412 4090 11424 4100 11404 4079 11404
      4073 11405 4074 11408
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 234DEG 26KT 4087 11409

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