Hail in North Carolina, August 23, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to slowly sink south across the forecast
area tonight into Saturday morning.  Showers will persist on
Saturday as a wedge of cool high pressure builds into the region
behind the front.  Fewer showers are expected Sunday into Monday
as the high pressure strengthens and persists.  Showers and
thunderstorms return for Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures
rebound ahead of the next cold front.  Drier weather is possible
behind the front to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Mesoanalysis shows atmosphere has become very unstable
this afternoon. dCAPE is relatively high, but not as high as the
past few days. The earlier low level shear has abated, but may
return as the cold front to our north sags southward. Should see
numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms into early evening
with some strong to severe storms as well. That said, organization
may be lacking due to the lower shear values and cold pools may be
harder to form given the lower dCAPE. The expanded marginal risk
from SPC still looks reasonable given the instability and ongoing
convection.

Tonight, expect the strong convection to diminish but shower
activity will likely linger as confluent flow upstream of a trough
over the Great Lakes drives a sfc high in our direction. This keeps
the pushing the cold front south in "backdoor" fashion. Low-level
flow will veer to easterly by early Saturday. The combination will
provide added lift, so PoPs remain fairly high chance throughout the
night. Stratus will settle in across the area as well. Lows will be
above normal.

Cold air damming settles in across the area Saturday as the high
wedges in from the northeast and the front stalls just to our south.
Copious low level moisture and easterly flow will keep low clouds
across the area through the day. Showers will be numerous as well
with thunderstorms limited to the mountains and the area along and
south of I-85. The severe threat diminishes as instability is weak
and dCAPE lacking. Highs will be well below normal with most areas
below 80 degrees. The exception will be the Upper Savannah River
valley where mid 80s linger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245pm EDT Friday: With increasing confidence in the passage
of the wedge front earlier on Saturday, Sunday looks to be solidly
cool and cloudy with periods of light rain and drizzle across
the area, as high pressure funnels anomalously cool and stable
air into the region.  Models have oscillated on the strength and
exact orientation of the low-level fetch of moist Atlantic air
above the wedge for Sunday and Monday, with the overnight guidance
weaker and the latest 12Z guidance stronger with the 900-850mb
flow out of the ENE.  Nevertheless, low-level convergence and
weak isentropic lift will persist at least into Monday morning
which will maintain periods of light rain and drizzle, especially
across the Foothills and favored eastward facing slopes along
the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Confidence is increasing that the
wedge of high pressure, centered near Maine, will be reinforced
Sunday night into Monday morning by the developing area of low
pressure near S FL, as guidance continues to lift the low north
along the Atlantic Coast. Counterclockwise flow around the low
as it parallels the North Carolina coast on Monday would
strengthen northeasterly flow within the wedge while weak
subsidence associated with the periphery of the low is
forecasted to reduce PoPs east of the Blue Ridge and Foothills
during the day Monday.

Aloft, the region is on the southern edge of an evolving Omega
block, which begins to break down later Monday in response
to height falls over the Ohio Valley ahead of our next system.
The latest forecast is even cooler for Sunday with max temps
bottoming out 10-12 degrees below normal. There will be little
recovery on Monday (still 8-10 degrees below normal) with the
shortwave ridge aloft and the resultant loss of cold air
advection within the wedge.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245pm EDT Friday: Overall the forecast has changed little
for the middle and end of the work week next week, with the next
system approaching from the west on Tuesday and frontal passage
expected sometime on Wednesday.  The high pressure wedge will
breakdown overnight Monday in response to height falls aloft and
the coastal departure of an area of low pressure.  Modest elevated
instability (<500 J/kg SBCAPE; 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) returns
for Tuesday across the mountains with some drying of the column
and slightly more favorable lapse rates associated with a weak
shortwave trough.  However, there will be plenty of details to
sort out in the days ahead because the stabilizing influence
of the coastal low may continue to counter the weak trough,
especially across the eastern counties, where current forecasted
profiles remain stable.  Therefore, the current call for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday will likely be
refined as confidence evolves.

Nevertheless, a weak cold front is progged to move through
the forecast area on Wednesday, with decent model agreement on
timing and shower and thunderstorm coverage, which again, is not
terribly impressive.  There remains disagreement between the GFS
and the ECMWF on precip chances for Thursday afternoon behind the
front with the GFS remaining unsettled despite agreement that the
front will stall along the Atlantic coast.  This is the opposite
of the overnight solutions.  For now, the forecast trends drier
on Thursday.  Complications continue into Friday as the guidance
tries to develop low pressure along the stalled coastal front.
Easterly flow and an in situ wedge may return to end the work week,
but there will be plenty of time for this to change.

Southerly (return) flow will be slow to return on Tuesday but with
no connection to cooler air and greater insolation, temperatures
are expected to recover a bit more with highs just 2-4 degrees
below normal.  Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures
return by Wednesday in advance of the approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection developing/moving in across the
mountains will spread east through the afternoon with associated
restrictions as cells move over airfields. The strongest convection
will be diurnal but showers may linger through the night. Tonight, a
front will slowly push south thru the region and high pressure will
encroach from the northwest, in an incipient CAD scenario. Stratus
will develop from N to S as a result in the morning. Have gone with
cigs dropping through MVFR to IFR as the wedge becomes entrenched.
Vsby should drop to generally MVFR but IFR, likely at KAVL, can't be
ruled out elsewhere near daybreak, especially in the lingering
showers. Only a slow improvement, if any, expected Saturday as low
level moisture remains high and wedge remains in place. W to SW wind
through the evening becomes N to NE behind the front. Low end gusts
are possible with and behind the front.

Outlook: Cold air damming Sunday will keep lower cigs possible.
Drier air moves in for Monday. Moisture and a frontal system move
back in by midweek.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High  81%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   74%     High  80%
KHKY       High 100%     High  95%     High  84%     Med   78%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  99%     High  93%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  86%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
614 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
614 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an
approaching cold front, mainly this afternoon and evening. Some of
the thunderstorms could be strong enough to produce small hail and
gusty winds, and a few may become severe with wind damage the main
threat. The Piedmont of the Carolinas and the Charlotte metro area
stand the best chance for severe storms. Localized flooding will be
possible in areas affected by multiple thunderstorms. Small streams
could approach bankfull conditions where heavy rain falls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
456 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

SCZ007-008-232130-
Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
456 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 456 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles southeast of
Columbus to 17 miles west of Gaffney to 4 miles northeast of
Spartanburg, and moving northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Cowpens, Inman, Mayo, Chesnee,
Cowpens National Battlefield, Lake Bowen, USC Upstate and Cedar
Springs.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3501 8201 3506 8217 3519 8209 3519 8197
      3518 8186 3507 8172 3488 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 219DEG 16KT 3509 8209 3506 8197 3498 8186

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

SCZ012-232130-
Laurens SC-
512 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Greenwood, or near Lake Greenwood State Park, moving
east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lake Greenwood.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake Greenwood is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8196 3422 8197 3424 8198 3424 8201
      3427 8201 3427 8191 3426 8190 3422 8193
      3420 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 276DEG 9KT 3424 8194

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
515 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ506-508-232145-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
515 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Rutherfordton, or 11 miles north of Spindale, moving
east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Union Mills.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3560 8174 3560 8172 3548 8173 3548 8195
      3555 8196 3559 8183 3558 8182 3558 8180
      3559 8179 3559 8177 3561 8177 3561 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 255DEG 17KT 3552 8189

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ056-232145-
Catawba NC-
521 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CATAWBA COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 521 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Newton, or 4 miles southeast of Mountain View, moving
south at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Newton and Startown.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3568 8137 3571 8129 3561 8120 3557 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 339DEG 5KT 3564 8130

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
527 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

SCZ007-008-232200-
Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
527 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG
AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles north of
Spartanburg to 4 miles northwest of Gaffney to 17 miles south of
Shelby, and moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, Blacksburg, Mayo, Chesnee, Cowpens National Battlefield,
Cowpens, Lake Bowen, Cherokee Falls, Draytonville and Thicketty.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8141 3505 8147 3503 8149 3501 8148
      3498 8159 3501 8178 3512 8205 3518 8185
      3517 8150 3511 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 257DEG 21KT 3513 8190 3511 8172 3503 8159

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
541 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ036-056-232215-
Iredell NC-Catawba NC-
541 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND
SOUTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Statesville, or near Lake Norman State Park,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Catawba, Lake Norman State Park, Troutman, Lake Norman, Sherrills
Ford, Terrell and Doolie.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake Norman is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 8109 3578 8098 3563 8083 3557 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 315DEG 14KT 3568 8099

LANE