Scattered thunderstorms formed over a large part of southeast Arizona. Thunderstorms in Cochise County produced severe wind gusts in Douglas and Sierra Vista and flash flooding in the St.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms formed over a large part of southeast Arizona. Thunderstorms in Cochise County produced severe wind gusts in Douglas and Sierra Vista and flash flooding in the St. David area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 23, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 230 PM MST Fri Aug 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS...A more active monsoon pattern will continue through Saturday with daytime high temperatures near or slightly below normal. A drying trend then resumes Sunday with isolated storms limited to near the International border as high pressure starts to build overhead. Dry conditions generally prevail Monday and Tuesday with above normal temperatures returning. Thereafter, moisture returns by Wednesday, resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION...The latest GOES satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies east of Tucson, with mostly sunny skies to the west of Tucson. KEMX/area radars are rather quiet across southeast Arizona early this afternoon, with showers/thunderstorms noted in the White Mountains and over Mt. Graham and the Huachuca/Chiricahua mountains attm. Blended Total Precip Water Imagery has shown little change from this morning with PWAT's ranging between 1.0" and 1.3" across most of the forecast area (except in the White Mountains with values around 0.7"). Surface dewpoints have fallen into the 50's across the southern half of the state. With plenty of moisture in place and abundant sunshine expect convection to continue to initiate over the mountains south and east of Tucson through the remainder of the afternoon hours, gradually pushing out into the valleys by the mid to late afternoon hours. The latest high res models continue to show areas south of Tucson becoming more active by the mid/late afternoon hours. Steering flow is rather weak, with the general movement of storms to the east/northeast. Will have to rely on outflow boundaries to get storms into the lower deserts/northern portion of the CWA. Overall, the peak timing for maximum storm coverage today will be between 4 pm and 9 pm, with the main threats being heavy rainfall and strong winds/small hail with the stronger storms. If storm outflows do manage to work into northern Pima/southern Pinal counties, blowing dust could also be a concern, especially along the I-10 corridor. The overall pattern remains conducive for storm development on Saturday as deep moisture continues to stream northward from Mexico. Expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms south/southeast of Tucson. A drying trend then begins on Sunday as strong high pressure aloft off the California coast shifts inland and becomes elongated from California through Arizona and into New Mexico. Expect only isolated shower/thunderstorm development on Sunday along the International Border. Mainly dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as the upper high strengthens overhead, with high temperatures these days climbing back 3-7 degrees above normal. By Wednesday of next week, the upper highs shifts east of the area which allows moisture to begin to work back into Arizona from the east/southeast. Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances are noted from Wednesday onward into next weekend as this moisture transport continues. Numerical guidance values indicate high temperatures lowering from a couple of degrees above normal next Wednesday to a couple of degrees below normal by Friday of next week. && AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z. Isolated TSRA/SHRA currently developing east to south of KTUS, becoming scattered to numerous across much of southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening. Expect decreasing coverage of TSRA/SHRA tonight with the bulk of activity ending by daybreak on Saturday, redeveloping Saturday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to 40 kts and MVFR cigs/vsbys with the stronger TSRA. Otherwise, cloud decks mainly 12k-18k ft MSL. Surface wind this afternoon wly/nwly 8- 15 kts with gusts near 20 kts, decreasing light and variable overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms across much of southeast Arizona this afternoon and evening, followed by another round of storms Saturday with slightly less spatial coverage. Drier air starts to work its way in on Sunday bringing only isolated thunderstorms, further drying on Monday into Tuesday. However, this downturn is short-lived as moisture increases by the middle of next week returning scattered storms to the region. Other than breezy afternoons in the Upper Gila River Valley this weekend, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven mainly under 15 mph. The usual threat from strong thunderstorm outflow winds also remains in place. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && DISCUSSION...Zell AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Howlett/Powell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Tucson AZ 243 PM MST Fri Aug 23 2019 AZZ508-512-232230- Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox- 243 PM MST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM MST... At 242 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles northwest of Chiricahua National Monument, or 25 miles southeast of Willcox, moving northeast at 10 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and blowing dust will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Chiricahua National Monument. LAT...LON 3194 10942 3221 10967 3227 10939 3208 10920 TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 237DEG 7KT 3210 10944 Zell
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
348 PM MST Fri Aug 23 2019
AZZ508-512-232330-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
348 PM MST Fri Aug 23 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MST...
At 346 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Cloverdale, or 23 miles east of Douglas, moving
southwest at 15 mph.
Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of southeastern
Cochise County and impact the Geronimo Trail area from just east of
Douglas to the New Mexico border.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3133 10939 3141 10946 3165 10919 3162 10905
3133 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 052DEG 14KT 3144 10917
CernigliaThe Tucson radar (KEMX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:35 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
ASOS station KDUG recorded thunderstorm wind gust of 64 mph.
KFHU and KALK ASOS weather stations measured thunderstorm wind gusts of 66 mph.
Around 2 inches of rain in 1 to 2 hours flooded many yards and several homes in the St. David area. Some vehicles became stuck in floodwaters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 851545, 851546, 851547.