Excessive runoff into the Ottawa River Basin in Canada restricted the outlet of Lake Ontario. This combined with above normal precipitation into the Lake Ontario Basin, record levels on the Great Lakes above Lake Ontario, and higher than normal flows into the lake from the Niagara River pushed the lake to well above normal levels.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Excessive runoff into the Ottawa River Basin in Canada restricted the outlet of Lake Ontario. This combined with above normal precipitation into the Lake Ontario Basin, record levels on the Great Lakes above Lake Ontario, and higher than normal flows into the lake from the Niagara River pushed the lake to well above normal levels. Over the course of May, the levels quickly approached those reached in 2017, surpassing 5 feet above low water datum on May 17. The levels continued to increase through the end of the month, rising to near 5.5 feet above low water datum by May 31.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 9:55 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1055 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region overnight bringing another round of showers with isolated thunderstorms. A warm front will slowly push northward across the region over the weekend, with warmer weather for Sunday. Low pressure will then pass to the north of the area Sunday night, which will bring another chance for showers which will last into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... More showers can be expected into early Friday...as low pressure moving northeast from Lake Huron will drag a cold front across the region. Ahead of the approaching front... a deepening southerly flow will increase and dewpoints will climb into the low 50's east of Lake Ontario to the mid to upper 50's across western NY. A 40kt low- level jet will further increase moisture from the southwest and PWAT's will climb to over an inch across western NY late tonight. More widespread showers will arrive overnight when the frontal boundary will tap into moisture associated with a mid-level wave. There may be some breaks in this line, but the vast majority of the area should have a period of showers late tonight into early Friday morning. There will be limited instability across the Western Southern Tier when this moves through, where a few thunderstorms are possible. Rainfall amounts should generally be less than a quarter inch, with locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Warm air advection overnight will mean low temperatures will occur during the evening hours at most locations before temperatures rise late tonight. Lows will range from the low to mid 50's across western NY to the mid to upper 40's east of Lake Ontario. The weak surface low will pass to our north early Friday, with its trailing cold front moving across the region Friday morning. Showers will linger with this front Friday morning, but drier air will move in behind the front leading to mainly dry weather and a partial clearing Friday afternoon. The sunshine will offset the cooler air aloft and allow temperatures to climb into the 60s across most of the region, except east of Lake Ontario and along the immediate lakeshores where it will be a bit cooler. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The main features of interest this weekend will be the upper level ridge over the central portion of the state, followed by the low entering the Western US. As the ridge moves into the Ohio Valley Friday night, warm air advection will start to encroach on Western NY. Forecast atmospheric profiles show large mid level dry area over the region, so convection seems unlikely at this time. If any, convection related to approaching warm air advection should be limited to the far SW corner of the state, while the rest of WNY and CNY should be dry under surface high pressure but with mid and high clouds moving across the region. Some warmer air aloft will move across the region on Saturday, but without adequate boundary layer mixing, surface temperatures won't change much from Friday's highs. But at least most areas will again see highs in the 60s. If there's any ongoing precipitation over far SW NY during the morning, it should fall apart early due to little support aloft together the the above noted lack of surface mixing. The lack of precipitation should last into Saturday night with the best forcing along the warm frontal baroclinic boundary now north of Lake Ontario. By Sunday, the upper level ridge should be directly overhead while the region basks in a large warm sector with low level SW flow. This it's looking increasingly likely that spring will be in the air, at least away from the nearby cooler lake waters. Thus some inland areas may flirt with the 80F mark, although current forecasts are still a degree or two shy of that summer-like value. The only reason for holding back on higher temperatures inland is the threat for afternoon convection. There will be no cap by then, and with a increasingly buoyant airmass, convection looks possible at least along lake breeze boundaries and possibly elsewhere. Then Sunday night, the west coast system will have wreaked havoc on parts the Central US with severe weather and will be moving toward the Great Lakes region, but with way less impact. But showers and possible thunderstorms appear likely as the remnant upper level trough moves NE with a few prefrontal troughs crossing WNY overnight. The cold front itself doesn't look like it will move through until later on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monday a cold front will pass across the region with showers likely and perhaps a thunderstorm. There is still uncertainty as to the timing, with an early passage likely to prevent much 70s across areas west of the Genesee Valley. Behind the front, surface high pressure will nose southward from Canada, bringing a period of dry weather to the area starting Monday night and Tuesday. In addition, the upper level pattern will then support a building surface ridge over the Eastern Great Lakes. This building ridge will support a milder airmass, though the ridge axis may be too far to the east to keep Wednesday dry, and thus will have a chance for a few showers. An upper level shortwave will push a surface low eastward, and to the north of Lake Ontario Wednesday night. This will bring additional chances for rain showers Wednesday night, with just a few lingering showers Thursday east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will average around normal through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist throughout the region through midnight. Widespread showers will then move into the region overnight along and just ahead of a cold front. This will lower cigs to MVFR, and there may be a period of IFR conditions along and just behind the front when there will be the most low level moisture. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, mainly south of KBUF/KROC. There also will be a brief period of LLWS with increasing winds aloft just before the showers arrive. Drier air will build in behind the front late Friday morning with flight conditions improving to VFR by late Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. Sunday and Monday...VFR or MVFR with a chance of showers. Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Another weak system will arrive later tonight and Friday, with a cold front crossing the lakes early Friday. Southwest winds will increase on Lake Erie this evening however SSW winds will keep the higher waves offshore. Winds behind this system may approach small craft criteria across portions of Lake Ontario late Friday behind the cold front. A warm front will slowly approach and lift across the region over the weekend, but winds will remain on the light side with this front. Winds will increase Sunday night and Monday when low pressure is expected to pass to our north. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH SHORT TERM...Zaff LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...Apffel/RSH MARINE...Apffel/RSH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 445 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-170845- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 445 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-170845- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 445 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 flood, 7 lakeshore flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 868120, 868121, 868122, 868123, 868124, 868125, 868126, 829712, 829714, 829715, 829716, 829717, 829718, 829719.