Heavy rain during the middle of May and increased outflows from Lake Red Rock allowed the Des Moines River at Eddyville and Ottumwa to go into flood.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
Heavy rain during the middle of May and increased outflows from Lake Red Rock allowed the Des Moines River at Eddyville and Ottumwa to go into flood.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 11:42 AM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1242 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019 Confidence: Medium Few surprises early today. Convection fired Thursday evening along the boundary and has since weakened. Isentropic lift and return flow aloft over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa continues to fire new areas of thunderstorms which should eventually congeal into a cluster of storms this morning over northern Iowa as the warm front retreats north this afternoon. With the forcing heading north, the threat for thunderstorms should lessen over the south during the day. With any sunshine, temperatures will rise into the 80s over the south and where rain/thunder continues in the north; temperatures will remain cooler in the 60s to 70s. By tonight the front will remain far enough north that most of the forcing will be confined along the warm front and areas north into Minnesota. There will be a marginal threat for some strong to severe storms over the region later today and tonight. In the far northwest, some of the stronger to severe storms expected in Nebraska and South Dakota may move into far northwest areas overnight where a slight risk for severe weather remains. Much of the rest of the area will be rain free tonight; especially south and east. Lows tonight will be in the 50s in the northeast to the mid 60s in the southwest. There is reasonable consensus for Saturday as a stronger upper level speed max approaches the area Saturday afternoon and evening. This will spin up and intensify an area of low pressure moving northeast from Oklahoma into Iowa by 12z Sunday. Showers and stronger thunderstorms are likely again mid to late Saturday afternoon and evening with another chance of locally heavy rainfall as well. Currently a slight risk for severe storms continues on Saturday over most of the forecast area and this seems reasonable with perhaps a slightly better chance for stronger storms over the southeast half of the area. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s to lower 80s by afternoon with rain chances increasing to likely/categorical late afternoon and into the evening. Rainfall amounts from tonight through Saturday night may add another 1 to 2 inches from north to south. At this time, headlines for heavy rain are not being issued but will be monitoring today and tonight for any areas, if any, that might be more susceptible to flooding concerns. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019 Saturday night models vary on the details but the upper trough will be lifting through the region with the trough axis somewhere over central/eastern Iowa by 12Z Sunday. The NAM is the slowest of the models but it is an outlier in keeping the upper trough axis still west of the state. The placement of the surface low and frontal boundary is a bit more problematic. The NAM, and Euro have the low over northeast Iowa by 12Z with the GFS considerably further southwest with this, resulting in more widespread precip over the forecast area versus just over eastern Iowa. By Sunday afternoon however all models have the precip to the east of the state. A second shortwave drops through the Northern Plains and northern portions of the Upper Midwest but for the most part, precip with this feature will be light and mainly north of the state. Ridging builds into the region through 00Z Tuesday so dry but seasonally cool temps are forecast through the period. Highs north will only be in the 50s with 65 to 70 south. the pattern becomes more active again for Tuesday into Wednesday as a similar upper trough digs out of the southwest U.S., across the Rockies then lifts across the Upper Midwest becoming negatively tilted and developing a closed low. A very powerful surface low will lift out of the Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. The models today are all much further north with this low and in much better agreement, though not in complete agreement. Much of Iowa is now in the warm sector and action zone. Expect numerous periods of storms and severe weather from late Monday night through Tuesday night with the brunt of the storms coming Tuesday afternoon through just past midnight. It is too far out to define severe threats but Tuesday will be a busy day. We get to do it all again to some degree late in the forecast period but forecast models are in poor agreement with timing and placement of the next upper trough and surface low. We have PoPs running Thursday through next Friday and while confidence is low and we will not see constant periods of rain, the model agreement is far too low to try and add detail at this time. Persistence PoPs is the best way to go for now. At least we will be warmer and closer to seasonal averages on temperatures. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/ Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 Generally a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs across the north today and tonight with periods of VFR south. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually lift north today. Mainly dry overnight then renewed thunderstorm chances by late morning over southern Iowa. East/northeast winds across northern Iowa this afternoon becoming southeasterly with southeast to south winds in vicinity of KDSM/KOTM. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...FAB AVIATION...Donavon
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 411 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019 IAZ004-180915- Emmet- 411 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight A River Flood Warning is in effect for the area. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details. Periods of thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight. Storms are not expected to be severe this morning. There is a slight risk for storms from late afternoon through tonight to be severe with large hail and damaging wind the threats. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Periods of thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through Sunday then again Tuesday through Thursday. There is a slight risk for severe storms Saturday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Additional chances for severe storms will be possible through the period...especially Tuesday. Details on timing, location and specific threats will be defined in the coming days. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed periodically during the period. IAZ005>007-016-017-024>028-035>039-046>050-057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097-180915- Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Humboldt-Wright- Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk- Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk- Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams- Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne- Appanoose-Davis- 411 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight Periods of thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight. Storms are not expected to be severe this morning. There is a marginal risk for storms from late afternoon through tonight to be severe with large hail and strong wind the threats. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Periods of thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through Sunday then again Tuesday through Thursday. There is a slight risk for severe storms Saturday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Additional chances for severe storms will be possible through the period...especially Tuesday. Details on timing, location and specific threats will be defined in the coming days. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed periodically during the period. IAZ015-023-033-034-044-045-180915- Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Sac-Calhoun-Crawford-Carroll- 411 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight Periods of thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight. Storms are not expected to be severe this morning. There is a slight risk for storms from late afternoon through tonight to be severe with large hail and damaging wind the threats. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Periods of thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through Sunday then again Tuesday through Thursday. There is a slight risk for severe storms Saturday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Additional chances for severe storms will be possible through the period...especially Tuesday. Details on timing, location and specific threats will be defined in the coming days. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed periodically during the period. FAB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0944 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E URBANDALE 41.64N 93.72W
05/17/2019 E2.75 INCH POLK IA TRAINED SPOTTER
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
&&
AKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1014 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE INDIANOLA 41.37N 93.55W
05/17/2019 E3.22 INCH WARREN IA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR TOTAL.
&&
AKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1015 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0904 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE WAUKEE 41.58N 93.82W
05/17/2019 E2.38 INCH DALLAS IA TRAINED SPOTTER
0700 THURS 0900 FRI.
0540 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE LAMBS GROVE 41.69N 93.07W
05/17/2019 E2.25 INCH JASPER IA TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE 2030 THURSDAY NIGHT.
0849 PM HAIL 1 E LAMBS GROVE 41.70N 93.07W
05/16/2019 E1.25 INCH JASPER IA TRAINED SPOTTER
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE OSKALOOSA 41.37N 92.60W
05/17/2019 E2.03 INCH MAHASKA IA COCORAHS
24 HOUR TOTAL.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE NEW SHARON 41.39N 92.60W
05/17/2019 E2.20 INCH MAHASKA IA COCORAHS
24 HOUR TOTAL.
0803 PM HAIL MELBOURNE 41.94N 93.10W
05/16/2019 E1.00 INCH MARSHALL IA PUBLIC
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.
0746 PM HAIL 1 SW MARSHALLTOWN 42.03N 92.92W
05/16/2019 E1.00 INCH MARSHALL IA TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA, NICKELS, AND A FEW QUARTERS VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA.
0944 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E URBANDALE 41.64N 93.72W
05/17/2019 E2.75 INCH POLK IA TRAINED SPOTTER
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE WINDSOR HEIGHTS 41.63N 93.69W
05/17/2019 E2.26 INCH POLK IA COCORAHS
0700 THURS 0700 FRI.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S SAYLORVILLE 41.64N 93.62W
05/17/2019 E2.00 INCH POLK IA COCORAHS
24 HOUR TOTAL.
0930 PM HAIL 4 ENE WINDSOR HEIGHTS 41.63N 93.65W
05/16/2019 E1.00 INCH POLK IA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA WITH PICTURE.
0900 PM HAIL 3 E URBANDALE 41.64N 93.69W
05/16/2019 E1.25 INCH POLK IA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.
REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WITH PICTURES.
0850 PM HAIL 4 NE WINDSOR HEIGHTS 41.64N 93.66W
05/16/2019 E1.00 INCH POLK IA PUBLIC
PICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
0735 PM HAIL 2 NE WINDSOR HEIGHTS 41.63N 93.68W
05/16/2019 E1.00 INCH POLK IA PUBLIC
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE INDIANOLA 41.37N 93.55W
05/17/2019 E3.22 INCH WARREN IA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR TOTAL.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW INDIANOLA 41.35N 93.58W
05/17/2019 E2.80 INCH WARREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER
BETWEEN 2300 THURS AND 0700 FRI.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1019 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N WAUKEE 41.62N 93.86W
05/17/2019 E3.10 INCH DALLAS IA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
AKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1039 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E WAUKEE 41.61N 93.82W
05/17/2019 E2.95 INCH DALLAS IA BROADCAST MEDIA
WHO-TV REPORTS.
&&
AKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1057 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1056 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE ALTOONA 41.65N 93.46W
05/17/2019 E3.07 INCH POLK IA AMATEUR RADIO
SINCE 1800 THURS.
&&
AKThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Des Moines River at Ottumwa crested at 12.1 feet on 18 May 2019 at 00:50 UTC. While heavy rain did fall at times during the period, the majority of the reason the river is in flood was due to increased releases from Lake Red Rock.
The Des Moines River at Ottumwa crested at 13.53 feet on 19 May 2019 at 12:10 UTC. While heavy rain did fall at times during the period, the majority of the reason the river is in flood was due to increased releases from Lake Red Rock.
The Des Moines River at Eddyville crested at 63.1 feet on 27 May 2019 at 08:15 UTC. While heavy rain did fall at times during the period, the majority of the reason the river is in flood was due to increased releases from Lake Red Rock.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 822555, 822558, 822565.