Hail and Damaging Winds in New York, August 8, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
136 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Another upper level disturbance and a cold front will
bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms today with some gusty
winds possible.  The cold front will move across the region tonight
into Friday morning with cooler and drier air moving into the region.
Sunshine mixed with clouds and breezy conditions will occur Friday
afternoon with an isolated shower or thunderstorm north of the
Mohawk Valley.  Comfortable humidity levels and mainly dry
conditions are expected on the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1257 PM EDT...Visible satellite imagery continues to show
building cumulus across the region with a partly sunny sky in
most spots. With some cumulus growing tall enough now, some
showers and isolated thunderstorms are starting to develop
across the Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and Lake George-Saratoga
Region. Meanwhile, a stronger line of convection is moving into
the Finger Lakes and will continue to push across the rest of
central NY and into parts of eastern New York for this
afternoon. With the expectation of this line reaching our
northwestern areas, Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for Herkimer and Hamilton Counties until 8 PM.

Instability across the region will be similar to yesterday but
a little less, still enough instability to support thunderstorms
with marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds. A
region of steepening midlevel lapse rates seem to lag well
behind the cold front so not much chance at enhanced
instability.

Low level winds will increase but directional convergence weak.
Low level cooling and drying will be more noticeable behind the
cold front so the forcing along the thermal and moisture
gradient will be better than yesterday. So, made some minor
adjustments to the rain chances, timing, sky cover and
temperatures based on current data, trends and some CAM output.
PWATs have come down slightly compared to yesterday, as some
localized downpours are possible, but flooding does not look
like a major threat.

High temps will be near or slightly above normal with lower to
mid 80s in valley locations, and upper 60s to upper 70s over the
mtns. It will be the last humid day for a while.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tonight...The scattered showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in coverage shortly before midnight. The steeper lapse rates
move over the region with the short-wave swinging through, but
the loss of the daytime heating and waning CAPE should allow for
a trend to drier conditions after midnight. The sfc cold front
and associated dewpt boundary will be pushing across the region
between midnight and 6 am. The winds will shift to the west to
southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower
60s across the region.

Friday...A delightful day will makes its way into the ALY
forecast area with increasing low-level cold advection. H850
temps will fall to -1 to -2 STDEVs below normal based on the
latest GEFS. Sfc dewpts will fall into the upper 40s to upper
50s. It will be less humid and breezy with west to northwest
winds of 10-20 mph with some gusts of 25-30 mph. The cold pool
associated with the upper trough will allow for some diurnally
timed instability showers or an isolated thunderstorm to pop up
north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region. A mixture of
sun and clouds is expected. Highs will be in the mid 70s to
around 80F in the lower elevations with mid 60s to lower 70s
over the mtns.

Fri night...The instability showers due to the cold pool should
shrivel quickly after sunset, and the skies will become partly
cloudy to mostly clear with the winds decreasing. Another piece
of short-wave energy rotating around the upper level trough over
central and eastern Canada will allow for clouds to increase
late over the Adirondacks with a few showers or sprinkles. Lows
will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s over most of the region.

Saturday...A great start to the weekend is expected with below
normal temps and comfortable humidity levels. In the cyclonic
flow, another short-wave will produce some brief isolated to
scattered light showers especially from the I-90 corridor
northward. Sunshine will mix with clouds. It will still be a
tad breezy. H850 temps fall to +6C to +10C or so. Highs will be
in the 60s to mid 70s across the region with a few upper 70s
over the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The period starts out Saturday night with a dry and cool
northwest flow regime in place. PWAT anomalies from are
forecast to be around -1 to -2 STDEV from the GEFS. This will
allow for below normal low temperatures in the 50s, with 40s in
the mountains. Sunday will be continued dry with comfortable
humidity levels, as tempertures warm back to near normal levels
with sunshine and good mixing.

An upper level short wave trough and associated surface cold
front are forecast to approach from the Great Lakes Sunday night
and move across our region early Monday morning. This system
will have little moisture to work with, so will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers during this time, with some
extra cloud cover. Skies should clear again on Monday, as high
pressure builds back in from the west. Humidity levels will
remain fairly low for mid August, with dewpoints expected to be
mainly in the 50s. Dry conditions should persist through Monday
night with high pressure in place.

As the flow pattern aloft becomes zonal by Tuesday, forecast
confidence decreases. Guidance showing a signal for an embedded
short wave aloft and an associated surface wave of low pressure
moving east along a west-east oriented boundary. The ECMWF and
GFS differ both in terms of the track/position and timing. The
ECMWF is depicting a more northerly track and moving in quicker
(Tuesday into Tuesday evening) compared to the GFS, which has a
more southerly track and slower timing (Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning). Will mention chance pops for now during much
of this time until this feature is better resolved in the
guidance.

Overall, temperatures look to average slightly below normal
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms are along a cold front in
central NY, while isolated to scattered showers and a rumble of
thunder are around the KGFL and KALB areas well ahead of the cold
front. Based on the movement of the scattered to isolated activity
in the KGFL and KALB areas, indicating VCSH there, while little to
no activity expected in KPOU or KPSF until the line of storms
potentially reaches those areas this evening.

Based on radar and satellite trends and some of the mesoscale
models, the line of storms is expected to weaken a little by the
time it reaches KALB and KGFL but still be strong enough to
potentially produce some IFR visibilities, some MVFR ceilings and
gusts to 35 Kt. Indicating TEMPO for thunderstorms between 22Z-23Z
at KGFL and KALB and can amend if timing changes a bit.

Further weakening suggested in mesoscale models as the line tracks
east suggests just VCSH at KPSF and KPOU after about 23Z as the
storms could weaken considerably by then.  Can always amend if
storms stay stronger longer.

After about 02Z all showers and storms should have exited or
dissipated and mainly VFR conditions should prevail the rest of
tonight with some drier air gradually moving into the region. Just
scattered clouds well above 3000 feet are expected after
daybreak Friday morning.

Winds will be south to southwest at around 10 Kt this afternoon with
gusts from the west to 35 Kt in thunderstorms. Southwest winds
diminish to less than 6 Kt tonight then become west Friday morning
at around 10 Kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance and a cold front will bring more
scattered showers and thunderstorms today with some gusty winds
possible. The cold front will move across the region tonight
into Friday morning with cooler and drier air moving into the
region. Sunshine mixed with clouds and breezy conditions will
occur Friday afternoon with isolated showers or thunderstorms
north of Albany.

The RH values will lower to 50 to 65 percent this afternoon, and
then rise close to 100 percent Friday morning. The drier and
cooler air mass will allow the RH values to bottom out at 40 to
60 percent Friday afternoon.

The winds will be from the south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph
today, and then shift to west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph
tonight. Expect brisk west to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph on
Friday with some gusts of 25 to 35 mph at some locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No major or widespread impacts are anticipated in the Albany
Hydro Service Area over the next several days into early next
week.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop again
today. Storms today may have a lower potential for producing
heavy rainfall as compared to Wednesday, but will still need to
be watched closely for any isolated bursts of moderate to heavy
rainfall.

Mainly dry weather is then expected for Friday through the
weekend. Any light rain amounts from isolated showers will not
impact the waterways. This should allow for any elevated water
on rivers and streams to recede accordingly from the mid week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Wasula

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-091115-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition to possible severe storms, locally heavy rainfall is
possible which may causing ponding on roadways or low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send any reports of wind damage, hail or
flooding to the National Weather Service via email, social media or
phone.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-091115-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
ahead of a cold front this afternoon into tonight. The main threats
for any severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds of 58 mph or
greater and or hail the size of quarters or larger. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible which may causing ponding on roadways or low
lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send any reports of wind damage, hail or
flooding to the National Weather Service via email, social media or
phone.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
219 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NYZ052>054-081845-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
219 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ALBANY AND
SOUTHWESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES...

At 219 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Delmar, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, East Greenbush, Rensselaer, Delmar, Castleton-On-Hudson,
Averill Park, West Sand Lake, Selkirk, North Greenbush, Sand Lake,
Totem Lodge, East Schodack, Bleecker Stadium, Brookview,
Normansville, Selkirk Yards, Hoag Corners, Beckers Corners, Karlsfeld
and Millers Corners.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 10 and 5A.
 Interstate 87 between exits 21A and 23.
 Interstate 787 between exits 1 and 5.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4250 7381 4269 7388 4266 7351 4255 7351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 246DEG 10KT 4262 7378

NAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
233 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NYZ041-049-050-081900-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Northern Saratoga-
233 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...

At 232 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Round Lake, or
near Clifton Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton Park, Saratoga Springs, Mechanicville, Milton, Ballston Spa,
Round Lake, Country Knolls, North Ballston Spa, Burnt Hills, East
Glenville, Gates, Malta, Deans Corners, Grangerville, Willow Glen,
Coons, Garrison Manor, Wayville, Aqueduct and Elnora.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 10 and 14.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4293 7366 4290 7368 4283 7388 4299 7397
      4313 7360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 247DEG 25KT 4294 7384

NAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
249 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NYZ052>054-081930-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
249 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ALBANY AND CENTRAL
RENSSELAER COUNTIES...

At 249 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Wynantskill, or
near Watervliet, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Troy, East Greenbush, Cohoes, Watervliet, Rensselaer, Latham,
Menands, Green Island, Grafton, Berlin, Loudonville, West Sand Lake,
Center Brunswick, Wyantskill, Averill Park, Wynantskill, North
Greenbush, Brunswick and Sand Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 10 and 5.
 Interstate 787 between exits 5 and 9.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4270 7331 4256 7367 4270 7381 4278 7370
      4278 7368 4279 7367 4281 7366 4282 7366
      4292 7353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 233DEG 10KT 4268 7367

DBT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
302 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NYZ041-043-050-053-054-084-081930-
Western Rensselaer-Northern Washington-Eastern Rensselaer-Southern
Washington-Southern Saratoga-Northern Saratoga-
302 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES...

At 302 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mechanicville,
moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mechanicville, Hoosick Falls, Salem, Hartford, Cambridge, Greenwich,
Round Lake, Country Knolls, Gates, Malta, Porter, Lee,
Northumberland, Easton, Stillwater, Schuylerville, Victory,
Schaghticoke, Valley Falls and Argyle.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 10 and 12.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4288 7332 4287 7390 4288 7390 4341 7340
      4332 7326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 256DEG 14KT 4292 7372

NAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
303 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-090000-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville,
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield,
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington,
South Egremont, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge,
Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister,
Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake,
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek,
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall,
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville,
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson,
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa,
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont,
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge,
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham,
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo,
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock,
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown,
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling,
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains,
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton,
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton,
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro,
and Bellows Falls
303 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms in central New York
will track through eastern New York this afternoon and evening...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for eastern New York
until 8 PM. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms in central
New York this afternoon has produced scattered areas of damaging
wind. This line of thunderstorms will track through eastern New
York the rest of this afternoon, exiting into western New England
after 6 PM. The line of thunderstorms could produce additional
damaging winds and possible hail as the line tracks through
eastern New York.

The storms may weaken after 6 PM as they track into and through
western New England through the evening but isolated damaging
winds and hail are still possible.

All interests should keep a close watch of weather conditions and
if you see dark clouds approaching or hear thunder, seek safe
shelter until the storms pass. Spotters are encouraged to send
any reports of wind damage, hail or flooding to the National
Weather Service via email, social media or phone.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
323 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NYZ038-082015-
Southern Herkimer-
323 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...

At 323 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Augusta to near Columbus to near Oxford.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  West Winfield around 350 PM EDT.
  Frankfort and Cedarville around 355 PM EDT.
  Ilion, Herkimer and Mohawk around 400 PM EDT.
  Jordanville around 405 PM EDT.
  Little Falls around 410 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Ingham Mills,
Jersalem Hill, West Frankfort, Spinnerville, Corrado Corners, Cedar
Lake, Curtis, Farrel Corner, Countryman and North Ilion.
This includes Interstate 90 between exits 29A and 30.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4319 7510 4322 7470 4317 7470 4317 7472
      4315 7471 4314 7474 4313 7473 4311 7477
      4308 7477 4302 7474 4286 7476 4290 7488
      4284 7489 4282 7491 4291 7510 4286 7514
      4286 7521 4292 7520 4305 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 269DEG 37KT 4295 7553 4266 7541 4245 7555

DBT