Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, August 8, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross south through the region late today and
settle near the Ohio River by Friday morning. High pressure
will then move into the region allowing for dry conditions into
the weekend. The high will move east on Monday, with a low
pressure system expected to track east through the region on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few showers and storms are moving along the northern portions
of the forecast area. Most locations will stay dry through the
early afternoon hours. Later in the afternoon and into the
evening hours expect to see convective development in a west to
eastward orientation. Although PW values are not that high given
this orientation there will be the potential for some areas to
see multiple storms move over the same area.

In addition, expect DCAPE values to be over 1000 today and
therefore damaging winds will be a threat. There will also be
the potential for isolated large hail, however given poor mid
level lapse rates do not think hail will be as large of a threat
as wind.

There are already some wind gusts around the region and expect
wind gusts to increase this afternoon with wind gusts around 20
to 30 mph. High temperatures today will be in the middle to
upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Storms will be on the decrease through the remainder of the
overnight period, but then get another infusion of energy with
the coming day. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
over Kentucky through early afternoon. Some models are
significantly further north with the threat of lingering showers
on Friday - as far north as the I-70 corridor but this appears
to be overdone and forecast limits anything on Friday to south
of a Cincinnati/Portsmouth line. High temperatures within a few
degrees of 80 do not support deeper convection and showers may
be the primary result, but forecast has not removed thunder
attm given not insignificant forcing present over southern CWA.

Skies will clear overnight and temperatures will drop into the
50s north of the Ohio River and low 60s over Kentucky as drier
air establishes itself with high pressure building.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will settle over the CWA on Saturday and keep a
nicely dry airmass over the region through Sunday night. Models
differ on how the beginning of next week plays out. GFS has a
weak front dissipating w-e over the region Monday with low
chance pops, while European and Canadian models suggest the
front hangs north of the region. Regardless, there is a low
pressure center at the surface that will track east near the CWA
with zonal flow aloft. This is being forecast in different areas
with slightly different timing for Mon night/Tuesday, with a
muddled precipitation pattern suggesting that some rain may
occur Wednesday in the cold pool behind the eastward moving low.

Highs will generally be in the lower 80s, but will start out in
the mid to upper 80s on the weekend given ample sunshine and dry
air. Trends for this pattern would suggest it could be even
warmer given the dryness in place. Overnight lows in the lower
60s will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds will gust around 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. Thunderstorms
will be in the vicinity of KCMH and KLCK at the start of the
TAF period. Additional thunderstorms will develop late in the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Thunderstorm activity will
decrease through part of the night, however late in the
overnight hours additional showers and some thunderstorms will
move into the area as an upper level disturbances moves into the
region and with the frontal boundary in the vicinity.
Precipitation will push south of the TAF sites on Friday with
cu present during the day.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
447 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-090900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
447 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will push into the region later today. Showers and
thunderstorms that develop along the front will have the potential
to produce damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

OHZ056-081645-
Licking OH-
1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LICKING COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

At 1215 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Centerburg, moving southeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Utica, Hartford, St. Louisville, Fredonia, US Route 62 at
State Route 661 and Purity.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4006 8243 4024 8270 4028 8266 4027 8248
      4025 8248 4024 8230 4022 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 302DEG 31KT 4026 8261

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
335 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

OHZ065-081945-
Fairfield OH-
335 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasantville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Pea size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Bremen, Rushville and West Rushville.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3965 8238 3981 8250 3984 8247 3983 8240
      3975 8240 3974 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 310DEG 23KT 3980 8244