A back door cold front shifting southwest through northeastern New Mexico interacted with abundant moisture and instability beneath an upper level high to generate slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall on July 28, 2019. A round of heavy rainfall over the Ute Park burn scar on July 27th set the stage for an elevated flash flood threat on the 28th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A back door cold front shifting southwest through northeastern New Mexico interacted with abundant moisture and instability beneath an upper level high to generate slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall on July 28, 2019. A round of heavy rainfall over the Ute Park burn scar on July 27th set the stage for an elevated flash flood threat on the 28th. A strong thunderstorm that developed along the U.S. Highway 64 corridor between Cimarron and Ute Park led to flash flooding along the highway around 3 pm. Swift flowing water, rocks, mud, and debris forced the closure of part of the roadway for several hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 1:35 PM MST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 235 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered storms will continue through late this evening mainly for areas along and east of the central mountain chain while storm chances across the west will remain low. This decrease in storm activity will continue though Wednesday. Daily rounds of afternoon storms can still be expected, but will generally focus along the higher terrain of northern and western New Mexico, and coverage will be significantly less compared to the past few days. An uptick in storm coverage is forecast Thursday and Friday mainly for western and central New Mexico as deeper moisture moves into the area. Temperatures will be near to slightly above average, except in the east where a warming trend is forecast. Triple digit heat for areas like Roswell and Tucumcari will once again be expected by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery continues to depict drier mid-level air that is working its way south and east into the state. However, plenty of low-level moisture still exists as supported by dewpoints in the 40's and 50's across the forecast area. A weak backdoor cold front currently making its way southwestward across the plains will reinforce low-level moisture across the east, and it will be areas along and east of the central mountain chain that will be the focus for isolated to scattered convection through this evening. Isolated storms across the west, mainly along the higher terrain, can't be ruled out, but any storm that manages to form will likely be drier. The upper-level high will be centered near the Four Corners region on Monday, and low-level moisture will slightly increase behind the backdoor cold front as it reaches the NM/AZ border by early Monday morning. However, the placement of the high will keep the deeper moisture to our west in AZ and UT. This pattern will persist through at least Wednesday as the high moves slowly eastward across the NM/CO border. Monday through Wednesday will still see daily rounds of afternoon storms, but coverage will be significantly less compared to the past few days. Higher PoPs will reside in the higher terrain areas of northern and western NM while the eastern plains will remain hot and dry. The GFS and ECMWF continue to be in good agreement about the upper high moving east to near the OK/TX panhandles which will allow for the deeper mid-level moisture to shift into western and central NM. Thursday and Friday will see a slight uptick in storm coverage, especially across the northern and southwest mountains. What happens beginning next weekend is still unclear as models remain inconsistent in the long term. For now, it seems that the high will quickly move back off to our west early next weekend. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper high center is in the process of relocating to northern New Mexico today, where it will hang out through Tuesday into Wednesday. While drier air in the mid levels has invaded the state, low level moisture remains, and has resulted in another round of afternoon cumulus. At least a few showers and storms are possible west of the central mountain chain into early this evening, especially over and near the San Juan/Tusas, Jemez and the southwest mountains but small wetting footprints are likely and a few may be more dry than wet. More widespread wetting storms from the central mountain chain eastward are expected. Cell motion will be to the southeast and south and will trend to the south and southwest this evening. Monday through Wednesday, locally heavy rain will be most favored over the southwest mountains as the upper high circulation shunts a stream of deeper moisture over southwest NM and into Arizona. The northern mountains will see scattered convection but overall storm activity is expected to be a bit less than usual for the end of July. Overnight humidity recoveries will remain mostly good though as east to southeast winds reinforce low level moisture. Locally fair to poor ventilation rates are possible over northern NM directly under the high center. The upper high shifts east somewhat Thursday and Friday for a slight uptick in storms over far western NM as the monsoon plume over Arizona meanders farther east. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Drier in the mid levels as the upper high center begins to relocate over nrn NM. However, plentiful low level moisture will still result in sct-bkn cu over wrn NM with at least isold convection along and west of the central mt chain, especially over the San Juan/Tusas and Jemez mts and the Gila. Sct convection expected from the central mt chain ewd as a weak sfc boundary slides into ne NM and additional convection developing along the boundary shoves it swd into east central NM. The resulting east to west sfc gradient should push a gusty east wind into the RGV at KSAF and KABQ aft 00Z. Convection to wane by 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 95 67 94 / 0 5 10 10 Dulce........................... 53 87 53 88 / 5 30 30 30 Cuba............................ 61 88 60 88 / 10 30 20 20 Gallup.......................... 57 91 58 90 / 0 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 55 85 55 85 / 0 30 30 20 Grants.......................... 57 87 57 88 / 0 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 60 87 59 85 / 5 40 40 30 Datil........................... 59 85 57 83 / 10 40 40 20 Glenwood........................ 62 94 62 92 / 10 50 40 30 Chama........................... 51 80 51 81 / 20 40 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 63 83 62 83 / 20 30 20 20 Pecos........................... 59 83 59 84 / 30 20 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 79 54 81 / 30 40 30 30 Red River....................... 44 74 45 75 / 40 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 42 76 43 77 / 30 40 20 40 Taos............................ 54 84 53 86 / 20 30 20 30 Mora............................ 52 80 52 81 / 30 20 20 40 Espanola........................ 62 90 61 90 / 10 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 62 84 62 84 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 88 61 88 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 92 68 92 / 10 20 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 93 69 93 / 5 10 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 95 67 95 / 5 10 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 94 68 94 / 5 10 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 65 94 65 94 / 5 10 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 68 94 67 93 / 5 10 10 10 Socorro......................... 68 97 67 96 / 20 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 85 62 86 / 10 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 64 89 63 89 / 10 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 90 55 90 / 20 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 58 85 58 85 / 20 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 60 89 59 88 / 20 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 66 91 64 90 / 20 20 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 58 83 57 82 / 30 30 20 20 Capulin......................... 55 84 57 87 / 30 10 5 20 Raton........................... 54 88 55 91 / 30 20 10 20 Springer........................ 55 88 56 90 / 30 20 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 83 54 84 / 30 10 10 20 Clayton......................... 62 92 64 94 / 20 0 0 10 Roy............................. 59 87 61 89 / 40 5 5 10 Conchas......................... 66 96 67 97 / 30 5 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 66 95 66 95 / 30 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 66 97 67 99 / 30 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 64 92 64 92 / 50 10 5 5 Portales........................ 65 94 65 95 / 50 10 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 66 94 66 93 / 40 10 10 5 Roswell......................... 71 98 70 96 / 30 20 10 5 Picacho......................... 64 89 63 89 / 30 20 20 10 Elk............................. 60 86 59 85 / 40 40 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 15
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 317 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 NMZ501>540-291100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 317 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered showers and storms will impact areas along and east of the central mountain today and tonight. Storm motion will be south to southeast around 20 mph. A few of these storms will be capable of producing minor flooding, wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday An overall decrease in storm coverage is expected Monday through Wednesday, however isolated to scattered showers and storms are still possible around the higher terrain each afternoon. A couple storms may still produce locally heavy rainfall. An increase in the coverage and intensity of showers and storms is possible over western New Mexico Thursday and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report strong winds, hail, and flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. Guyer
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 224 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:57 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding impacted the U.S. Highway 64 corridor between Cimarron and Ute Park. Portions of the roadway were closed for several hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 831359.